A blind stealing hand

[zaxx19]

If the table is as passive as he is leading on you must ALso take the alternative of folding and continuing to be able to steal (this will be very valuable as the cash line approaches) as a factor towards laying this hand.

[SossMan]

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If the table is as passive as he is leading on you must ALso take the alternative of folding and continuing to be able to steal (this will be very valuable as the cash line approaches) as a factor towards laying this hand.

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I did...now quantify that factor and tell me a range of hands that the opponent could have that could justify me giving up on a mid pair getting 1.5:1.

[woodguy]

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So, given this info, what is the range of hands that you put the thinking BB on to make this move?


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I think (correct me if I'm wrong) that given Hero's image (LAG, raising any two in position), if BB is a TAG thinking player, he's not pushing with his good or great hands, he'd want to play them to extract more chips from Hero and would either flat call looking for Hero to bluff at the pot on the flop or pop him back PF (but not all in) with his good but not great hands to protect them and to take the lead.

If the above statement is true, then BB's hand range is quite large, maybe even any two.

Do you think we can actually discount group 1 and 2 hands when trying to figure out BB's range, or should they be included as well?

Regards,
Woodguy

[SossMan]

interesting thought, but there are a couple possibly overriding factors.

He's out of position, so he may not want to play a scary flop w/ something like JJ or AK.

Also, the OP has said that his MO has been to take the lead preflop and follow it up with a bet on the flop. In short, he likes to play hands without a showdown.

So, while I agree that many players wouldn't play AA-QQ like this (probably making a smaller raise), I think it's a little dangerous to discount them from the hand range. But you are getting at my bigger point that his hand range is quite large and certainly is a dog to 99.

Imagine the "gigabet" metagame benefits of calling w/ 99 and surviving. Who's going to come back over the top of your steals now that you are willing to "coin flip" with them?

Like I said before, it's easy to follow the crowd and the general advice that calling with medium pairs is a bad idea because you are a small fav/ big dog, but thinking critically about the specific sitation can lead to a drastically different conclusion.

[TripleQ]

Thanks of the interesting thoughts SossMan.. that's the kind of alternative thinking I was trying to go through as well.

As for the results.. I was actually the SB and BB that reraised. The first time I reraised the stealer, it was for a 9x BB or so (i.e. she raised 3xBB, I reraised 9x BB) and she folded. I had a mid pocket pair like JJ or TT I think.

The second time, I reraised all-in and after the fact thought perhaps that was a sign of weakness and that's what prompted her to call. In fact, I was reraising all-in with ATo (questionble perhaps, but that's for another thread). I was horrified when she called the all-in, but then shocked in a different way when she flipped over 99. I thought it was a pretty marginal call, considering the stacks/moneying position, but didn't know if she had read my all-in reraise a weakness.

Anyway, so we were off to the races and the 99 held up.

If I had to do it again, I think I would have done a smaller reraise and folded to an all-in. I had to think with all the raising she had done preflop before that ATo was a better hand. ALthough I have this nagging feeling that I was justifiying my actions too much with the "playing to win" school of thought.

[Potowame]

Hey soss,

This is a very tough spot, I think for two reasons

1. This Player has Reraised you All-IN twice, and you have folded previously. This woulda give the raiser alittle confidence that you so not want to play for your whole stack preflop with out AA KK QQ AK.

2. its near the bubble and he knows that you do not want to bust out with a hand like 99 [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img].

Soss I think the Range of hands is pretty large here.


Suited connectors 89-QJ , 55-jj, K10-KQ, A10-AK

With the huge over bet , I think he does not expect a call nor does he want one. just my opinion.

[zaxx19]

This metagame stuff is a factor BUT way more of one in a ring game.

PLUS
did...now quantify that factor and tell me a range of hands that the opponent could have that could justify me giving up on a mid pair getting 1.5:1.

WHY risk busting if you can continually take blinds and antes with no regard?? I dont care if it was 2:1 Ill sit and continue to steal until they stop me from doing it.

[SossMan]

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WHY risk busting if you can continually take blinds and antes with no regard?? I dont care if it was 2:1 Ill sit and continue to steal until they stop me from doing it.

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but, zaxx...that's the point..If you never stand up to the restealer, then you are going to get pushed back at much more often. At some point, you have to say, "don't come back at me with crap, unless you want to risk your whole stack preflop". We know that there are a bunch of players like yourself who are not willing to do that, so by standing up here, you can continue to steal in the future (not to mention the fact that it's likely a large +EV move here to call)

[zaxx19]

but, zaxx...that's the point..If you never stand up to the restealer, then you are going to get pushed back at much more often.

NEVER??

Umm we are talking about one hand correct?? Id pause for the maximum time and show the hand. This is the ONLY time he said he got played back at ...if it was the 3rd time in the last few orbits that would be a different story. I cant find any math geniuses around here but I am assuming 1 time isnt considered "a pattern" of restealing or playing back....seems like some of you guys just cant let hands go alot. It ll build you a stack sometimes but sometimes discretion is the better part of valor.

[MLG]

I would call with 99 there pretty consistently if its the second time in a short period that ive been repopped. When people start to play back at you when you are stealing a lot you have two options. The first is to slow down, the second is make more marginal calls to take advantage of the lower reraising standards. Given the relative stack sizes, I think the second option is better here.

If we take that opinion as a given, then making big preflop over bets/raises (when its for your whole stack and not for there's) becomes pretty dangerous. At that point, I'm much more likely to flat call and see a flop. I'm not looking to hit the flop though, I'm looking to make a play at the pot at some point in the hand.



Good hand.