Turn - What thinkest thou?

[Aces McGee]

I'm glad someone finally mentioned the possibility of folding. This is a lot closer to a fold than a raise.

-McGee

[damaniac]

I agree, but I think absent a read on villain's aggression and play other than being uber-loose, I think calling is pretty far ahead of folding unless my math in the above post was off. We're already splitting like half the time assuming any A, and will split considerably more than that by the river. Some little aces may not be bet, but then again some better ones would have been raised preflop much of the time. I guess I didn't account for sets either.

[Nick C]

I'd call, but there is an interesting dynamic here. Unless SB is slowplaying 99 or the case aces or is playing passive with a flush draw, it looks like he has a big pair. That means if SB has AT, we effectively have 5 outs (10 outs to a chop), unless BB folds, in which case we'll pick up a couple more. So against AT specifically, we have the odds to call the turn, but calling the turn and then calling again on the river no matter what falls would not be profitable.

Then again, you may already be chopping and may just need to dodge 5 cards. And you could be ahead of BB's flush draw or nines-up or JJ. I think he's probably got an ace, but unless 2/4 has changed since I played it regularly, if BB was betting a draw or a hand worse than top pair on the flop, he's betting that same hand again on the turn into three flop callers.

I'd call twice more, unless SB woke up with a turn checkraise (in which case I'd turbo-fold), but if, say, an 8 fell on the river, I'd wonder if I was giving my money away when BB bet again and I called again.

[McGahee]

[ QUOTE ]

To all those in the call camp, is it really worth risking 2 BBs to win 4 BBs with a hand this marginal?

[/ QUOTE ]

No - I would fold after further consideration. I think the micro "you're weak/tight if you fold ever because Ed Miller said so" forum has scarred me for life.

[QTip]

Good discussion so far imo.

Folding the turn is bad imo, and I say that instead of "not good".

So, I was inbetween calling and raising. I think there's merit for both; however, I feel calling is better.

1. I get a chance to see if sb is being dumb with a huge hand for 1 BB.

2. sb might call for 1 with a much worse hand giving me more value if I chop with BB.

3. I avoid a 3-bet.

I thought there was some merit in a raise if BB was betting a worse hand or a draw.

[BWebb]

After crunching some numbers, it looks like calling down is best. However, the third player involved adds an interesting dynamic to the hand. Interesting hand, I'll be thinking about this one for awhile.

[BWebb]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

To all those in the call camp, is it really worth risking 2 BBs to win 4 BBs with a hand this marginal?

[/ QUOTE ]

No - I would fold after further consideration. I think the micro "you're weak/tight if you fold ever because Ed Miller said so" forum has scarred me for life.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL, I convinced you to change your mind while I was convincing myself that calling down was best.

[Shillx]

Call.

Either the SB is slowplaying and we can fold if he check/raises or he has KK-TT and is drawing thin. Let him stick his nose in there with just 2 outs. It is impossible to put the BB on a hand, but it really doesn't matter what he holds here because it is doubtful that we get more then 2 BB from him no matter what we do. Unless he has a flush draw, we are in a wa/wb of sorts against him as well. It is also doubtful that a raise has value since we will oftentimes be behind.

[damaniac]

Thinking further, I kind of think the flop is closer to a fold, and here's why.

At this point we only beat A2 and are way behind all other aces. SB is more likely to have AK or AA or something good here than by the time he also checks the turn. Once he's checked twice, it's a lot less likely he's being cute. We lack all those glorious counterfeiting outs and instead are usually chasing a measly 3 outer and could be facing a c/r from SB, much more unlikely by the turn.

The thing that really prevents this is the odds are better, and a guy betting once on the flop is going to have a wider range than just an A. By the turn we can narrow that down a little better, and by then we're splitting with half his hands and will split with even more of them.

[deception5]

I agree, calling looks best here.