Alert: Party BBJ now +EV through 5/10 level

[J_B]

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i actually HAVE said something about this on several occasions (in various threads regarding the BBJ).

Why it would be -EV at $200k at 5/10 but +EV at 2/4 where the $0.50 drop represents a greater percentage of the BB is beyond me.

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It's because less hands are raked at 2/4 than at 5/10, so you're paying less at 2/4 then you are at 5/10 for your shot at the BBJ.

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...but I can't imagine a qualifying hand that wouldnt be raked!

[MicroBob]

jek isn 't referring to qualifying hands that wouldn't be raked.
He is saying that at 2/4 there will be fewer raked-hands overall....so you essentially are getting more 'free' shots at it.

Obviously it's going to be raked (probably) if you hit it.
But at 2/4 I can see 100 hands and have a shot on EACH one....but they only take the JP drop 60% of the time.
Whereas at 5/10 they would take the JP drop 80% of the time.


I still disagree with his assessment.....but at least it makes a little more sense where he's coming up with the numbers.
Thanks for the explanation JEK.

[MrDannimal]

What's ignored in those numbers is how people play differently (more passively, primarily) in hopes of not forcing someone to fold a jackpot hand, and how that increases the earn of a good player, and thus adds EV.

[MicroBob]

I think a lot of things are ignored.

Just because fewer hands are raked at 2/4 doesn't mean it makes it more EV imo.
Every hand that gets raked $1 is now getting tagged for $1.50 which is a significant jump for a 2/4 table. Obviously you have the shot at winning the jackpot....but I'm looking at how many more BB's you are paying for that.


At 15/30....IF it's raked then it's going to be $3....plus another $0.50.
And on a 15/30 table this is less significant.



I agree that the differences in play on the tables are a factor as well...but it's not possible to assess this as correctly.
JEK attempted to just look at the EV assuming the tables played the same.....but I just don't think the numbers are likely to be correct.

But if you are factoring in your own thoughts on the quality of the players then it is really just up to your best judgement when they are worthwhile to play.

[J_B]

good points bob.. There have been times where I have folded a hand like 56s UTG when I would have made a str8 flush. That's rare, but it has happened to me [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

If you have a table of 2+2ers only playing qualifying hands and never raising unless the board qualifies with their hands, of course the EV is +++++++++++++ I would think. I recall that happening when the jackpot was at about 750k.

Anyone know when a jackpot that is Aces full of Tens getting beat is +EV?

[newhizzle]

exactly

[MicroBob]

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of course the EV is +++++++++++++ I would think. I recall that happening when the jackpot was at about 750k.

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I played on one of those 2+2 tables when the JP was at a then-record $450k and I disagree that it's EV+++++.

It's mostly a waste of time and effort actually. (alobar was one of those who was there and may or may not agree).

There is SOME EV in the chance of hitting the JP...and probably even more EV in the entertainment value out of doing something so silly.

But there was always at least 1 or 2 players who didn't understand how the JP worked or what hands they should play PF.
Not all 2+2'ers are able to stay on the same page on such things. There was actually a lot of post-flop play even though there wasn't supposed to be and there were people who had to constantly be told what qualified and what didn't.

Additionally, you lose some EV on the chance that party sees the thread of the table set-up on 2+2 and decides not to pay-out because all the players were 'trying' to check-it-down (more often than not) for a JP.

Some might say 'it's perfectly legit....and how can they do that?'
It's THEIR jackpot and it's up to them. If they see the thread and decide ON THEIR OWN that they don't like what they see then they can deny it and nobody can do anything about it.
Consideration of that possibility takes away some of the EV.

[Reef]

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At what level does it become +EV?

I remember there being a post working it out, but I can't find it for the life of me.

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$2-$4 $193,205.51
$3-$6 $222,151.66
$5-$10 $247,629.10
$10-$20 $275,848.94
$15-$30 $262,267.69

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this is so wrong it's not even funny.

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If it's materially wrong, this is the 1st I've heard of it, and I crunched those numbers quite awhile ago.

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apologies Jek if I'm in over my head, but it just seems fundamentally wrong for the jackpot to have to be HIGHER for 15/30 players.

[Reef]

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i actually HAVE said something about this on several occasions (in various threads regarding the BBJ).

Why it would be -EV at $200k at 5/10 but +EV at 2/4 where the $0.50 drop represents a greater percentage of the BB is beyond me.

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It's because less hands are raked at 2/4 than at 5/10, so you're paying less at 2/4 then you are at 5/10 for your shot at the BBJ.

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I'd like to see #'s for BB/100 the jackpot drop costs at each of the levels.

[MicroBob]

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we're not looking at table rake, we're looking at the jackpot drop, no?

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if it's an unraked hand then there is no JP drop.
That is the basis of JEK's argument.