Ok, I need professional help with this hand... can't figure it out... - Page 2

Diplomat · #11 12-08-2003, 01:41 PM

Hi Eugeneel,

I think this should be a pretty routine fold when utg limp re-raises. Would you call two bets cold from this player pre-flop with JTs if he raised utg? I'll assume no; so save for their being more money in the pot, it's an easy fold. The rest of the hand is fine.

Feel free to congratulate you on a big win? You must be joking.

-Diplomat

Martin Aigner · #12 12-08-2003, 01:49 PM

According to twodimes:

As Ah 68.06 win percentage
Js Jc 8.72
Jd Td 17.02
Ac Kh 3.77

Best regards

Martin Aigner

get_crunk · #13 12-08-2003, 02:04 PM

what up i was the other guy in the im conversation. my point is that you dont KNOW the other hands...eugene wants to say a 95% chance of aces and 5% chance of kings, well that's just absurd...if you "know" what each player holds then i guess you could play it, but i still dont think the odds are there in limit to go after those hands.....but the fact that you really arent sure what the other players hold, especially the 4th guy just calling, makes it a clear fold(should have folded in the first place instead of calling the limp). also, am i the only one who doesn't consider this a bad beat??? his jack ten got 'cracked' by jacks after only being ahead on the turn??

Ed Miller · #14 12-08-2003, 02:11 PM

Your thinking in this discussion is 100% wrong.

If you caught a flush on fourth street, JJ had 3 outs to beat you, not one.

TT is a much better hand than JTs in virtually any game and preflop situation.

If you put your opponent on AA, then YOU MUST FOLD JTs FOR TWO BETS and it's not close. You are a huge underdog preflop. You simply won't win the hand often enough to collect from him when you outdraw him. This is especially true if you think you are against another pocket pair. The reason is that JTs will often flop a hand that would like to see the turn cheaply... like a gutshot... and you are almost guaranteed not to see the turn cheaply if you are in a 3-way capped pot against two big pairs.

Diplomat · #15 12-08-2003, 02:42 PM

Actually, your thinking here is a bit flawed too -- if you were 100% sure he had aces or kings, he must fold his hand.

In either case, he must fold.

And you are right, it's not a bad beat.

-Diplomat

Brian · #16 12-08-2003, 02:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Eugeneel: I am gonna post this hand on 2+2
East remix: its a big loser
East remix: those people are morons

[/ QUOTE ]

Why is it that people who play high stakes think 2+2'ers are morons?

-Brian

Inthacup · #17 12-08-2003, 03:09 PM

Why is it that people who play high stakes think 2+2'ers are morons?

Because the majority of people on 2+2 don't know what they're talking about.

get_crunk · #18 12-08-2003, 03:48 PM

yeah you're right, in the original conversation i think i said something along the same lines, i was just trying to make the point that he doesnt really "know" what everyone has...but even if he did he should still fold since he's putting the guy on the nuts...

Schneids · #19 12-08-2003, 04:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
According to twodimes:

As Ah 68.06 win percentage
Js Jc 8.72
Jd Td 17.02
Ac Kh 3.77

[/ QUOTE ]

So he's 4.884:1 to win the hand.

Let's say that when it is 3 bets back to him, he KNOWS it's going to end up 4 bets, and he KNOWS all the players who have yet to fold are not going to fold. So, his pot odds, at this point in time are exactly 13:3 (3 players in pot for 4 bets, plus his 1 he already put in=13) , or 4.333:1.

So mathematically, if he KNOWS these are the hands he's up against (remember we're talking game theory here -- not debating about whether he in actuality can know this), he should fold, unless he thinks he can make back what EV he's losing PF, on post-flop play.

Considering he loses the hand 4 out of 5 times, he's lost 4(-.5SB) = -1BB per four hands. Who's to say that if he plays well post flop, he cannot earn back what he's losing with the preflop call, through monster implied odds? Or is this another case of "compounding errors".

If you have 9 clean flush outs, remember, it is longterm +EV for you to go through a cap on the flop with two other players in on the hand (since you're about 1.86:1 to make the flush by the river versus 2:1 that is going into the capped pot), so keep that in mind when you consider that if he likes the draw on the flop that he'll be putting in multiple bets on the flop. Additionally, as it turned out in this example on the turn as well, when he hits a hand he DOES almost always get paid off with extra BB's.

All of this considered, from a game theory standpoint, is that still not enough to make anyone besides me and Eugeneel consider this to be atleast a debateable call?

tpir90036 · #20 12-08-2003, 05:12 PM

not to be dumb but i guess it depends. how did the rest of the hand play out? it got capped with your flush draw and then you hit on the turn, right? the problems i that you are going to either flop a draw or have nothing against what looks like two big pokect pairs. it sure would be nice to see the turn for a single bet....but there is no way that is going to happen with you sandwhiched between AA-QQ and AA-QQ.