What to do with JJ here? - Page 2

SonOfWestwood · #11 06-25-2005, 10:24 PM

Nothing really changed my read. I felt he had a bigger pocket pair. Just that the flop coming all unders made me second guess a little, making my decision a little more difficult...

SonOfWestwood · #12 06-25-2005, 10:26 PM

I doubt it. My read on him is a "typical," loose & passive player.

JohnG · #13 06-25-2005, 10:34 PM

It doesn't look like you have the implied odds to call just to flop a set, so the only reason to call preflop is if you also expect to be ahead quite a bit of the time, in which case you are raising his bet allin on this flop.

imported_anacardo · #14 06-25-2005, 10:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
It doesn't look like you have the implied odds to call just to flop a set, so the only reason to call preflop is if you also expect to be ahead quite a bit of the time, in which case you are raising his bet allin on this flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very true, but this is not consistent w/ our hero's reads or plan. If he were a little shorter I'd say he could push without worry, but as-is he's just in a shitty situation.

soah · #15 06-25-2005, 10:46 PM

Don't buy in short. That way you can afford to see the flop and fold.

JohnG · #16 06-25-2005, 10:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Nothing really changed my read. I felt he had a bigger pocket pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Depending on how strong your feeling was, this looks a borderline call preflop. Even if you double through 100% of the time when you flop a set, the implied odds would still be marginal. Given that you will probably never get his stack 100% of the time when you do flop a set, the implied odds are likely not there.

SonOfWestwood · #17 06-25-2005, 10:52 PM

I didn't buy in short. I was below the 25 max because of other hands that I did not win.

Typically, I don't reload until I get to 20 or below.

Even if I had a full stack of 25 in this case, though, does it really make anything easier?

JohnG · #18 06-25-2005, 10:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Very true, but this is not consistent w/ our hero's reads or plan. If he were a little shorter I'd say he could push without worry, but as-is he's just in a shitty situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's more than short enough to push on the flop. If he just called the $6 bet, there would be $20 in the pot with only about $11 left to bet. Just calling the flop bet would be a mistake. And folding would be a mistake too, given he saw the flop. If he doesn't want to move in because his read strongly has them on an overpair, then folding preflop was the play rather than calling to flop a set.

JohnG · #19 06-25-2005, 11:00 PM

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Even if I had a full stack of 25 in this case, though, does it really make anything easier?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you had a very good read and was certain to be paid off when you flop a set, then $25 starting stack would be giving you reasonable implied odds.

imported_anacardo · #20 06-25-2005, 11:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Very true, but this is not consistent w/ our hero's reads or plan. If he were a little shorter I'd say he could push without worry, but as-is he's just in a shitty situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's more than short enough to push on the flop. If he just called the $6 bet, there would be $20 in the pot with only about $11 left to bet. Just calling the flop bet would be a mistake. And folding would be a mistake too, given he saw the flop. If he doesn't want to move in because his read strongly has them on an overpair, then folding preflop was the play rather than calling to flop a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

My play here is definitely push-or-fold (fold, in this case, as I don't think I'm good >55% of the time here.)

Your point about this being the incorrect preflop play is well taken, but, having made a -EV move preflop, we've still got to do the best we can on the flop here, yes?