Raised family pot, JJ

[Nick C]

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As far as the overcalls, you should only be doing this when you possibly fear a better hand. I'd say the likelihood of you being best here is just about guaranteed.

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It's not just about guaranteed. MP1 may have whiffed on a turn checkraise, or he may have worried that his turned trips were no good yet since there was a 3-flush on the board.

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So you don't want to raise because you fear the 8 or TT...? Seems a little MUBSy doesn't it? Maybe the overcall route is correct, but certainly not because villian's betting out with a cinch.

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TT doesn't seem all that likely to me, though there is some chance Villain didn't raise with it preflop and then slowplayed the flop.

I'm more worried about an 8. I'm certainly not saying Villain definitely has quads, but it's possible. There are 44 available combinations of hands that contain an 8. I doubt Villain is playing all of those combinations, but at a table this loose, I wouldn't be surprised if he's playing about half of them. A8, K8, and 98 is 12 combos; throw in some some suited one- and two-gappers and Q8s and 87o and we're up to about 20 combos.

Anyway, though, once the turn checks through, Villain might bet out on the river with a lot of different full houses, so I think there's a good chance we're best. But I like going for overcalls here, even though we didn't get any this time.

[W. Deranged]

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As far as the overcalls, you should only be doing this when you possibly fear a better hand. I'd say the likelihood of you being best here is just about guaranteed.

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It's not just about guaranteed. MP1 may have whiffed on a turn checkraise, or he may have worried that his turned trips were no good yet since there was a 3-flush on the board.

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So you don't want to raise because you fear the 8 or TT...? Seems a little MUBSy doesn't it? Maybe the overcall route is correct, but certainly not because villian's betting out with a cinch.

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TT doesn't seem all that likely to me, though there is some chance Villain didn't raise with it preflop and then slowplayed the flop.

I'm more worried about an 8. I'm certainly not saying Villain definitely has quads, but it's possible. There are 44 available combinations of hands that contain an 8. I doubt Villain is playing all of those combinations, but at a table this loose, I wouldn't be surprised if he's playing about half of them. A8, K8, and 98 is 12 combos; throw in some some suited one- and two-gappers and Q8s and 87o and we're up to about 20 combos.

Anyway, though, once the turn checks through, Villain might bet out on the river with a lot of different full houses, so I think there's a good chance we're best. But I like going for overcalls here, even though we didn't get any this time.

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Nick,

I think that in general because the pot is multiway, it's huge, and there are plenty of obvious hands our opponents behind us almost have to (in their minds) call two cold with (basically an T, maybe a good flush, many pairs, and so on), the extra value we are going to get out of a raise in my opinion more than compensates the loss from when we're up against quads. In general, we are risking 3 BB to win something like 5 on average, and I think we are ahead enough to do this. If we go for overcalls, we risk a big more than 1 to maybe win 3 BB, meaning we have to be ahead less often, but we lose value when we miss.

Imagine we can say we are ahead 75% of the time. In that case, our expectation on a raise (assuming we'll always get three-bet when behind) is going to be .75(5) - .25 (3) = 3 BB. Our expectation on a call is going to be .75 (3) -.25(1) = 2 BB. This is a fairly simplified (and stylized) approach, but I think it's a useful way to think about the problem.

[Nick C]

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I think that in general because the pot is multiway, it's huge, and there are plenty of obvious hands our opponents behind us almost have to (in their minds) call two cold with (basically an T, maybe a good flush, many pairs, and so on), the extra value we are going to get out of a raise in my opinion more than compensates the loss from when we're up against quads. In general, we are risking 3 BB to win something like 5 on average, and I think we are ahead enough to do this. If we go for overcalls, we risk a big more than 1 to maybe win 3 BB, meaning we have to be ahead less often, but we lose value when we miss.

Imagine we can say we are ahead 75% of the time. In that case, our expectation on a raise (assuming we'll always get three-bet when behind) is going to be .75(5) - .25 (3) = 3 BB. Our expectation on a call is going to be .75 (3) -.25(1) = 2 BB. This is a fairly simplified (and stylized) approach, but I think it's a useful way to think about the problem.

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When it gets checked all the way to MP1, I think the chances that anyone holds a ten goes down a bit. Still, I agree that a ten is probably calling two cold, especially at this table.

Maybe a raise is best. I don't know.

It's really hard putting anyone on a hand. I mean, in particular, try putting UTG+2 on a hand. What the hell did he have? J9? 97? 76? I guess those are the most likely candidates. Or maybe he whiffed on a turn checkraise and then folded a flush on the river (but I can see the whiff a lot more easily than I can see the fold, at this table).

[W. Deranged]

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When it gets checked all the way to MP1, I think the chances that anyone holds a ten goes down a bit. Still, I agree that a ten is probably calling two cold, especially at this table.

Maybe a raise is best. I don't know.

It's really hard putting anyone on a hand. I mean, in particular, try putting UTG+2 on a hand. What the hell did he have? J9? 97? 76? I guess those are the most likely candidates. Or maybe he whiffed on a turn checkraise and then folded a flush on the river (but I can see the whiff a lot more easily than I can see the fold, at this table).

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In situations like this, with huge pots and many opponents, I often find it easiest to simply accept that some of my opponents are playing very, very odd things because they suck.