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#11
09-21-2005, 05:02 PM
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Re: I\'m back, serious thoughts on possible 215 ROI\'s
In Zjustin blog he did some type of 1000 sng challenge at the 215 level, and ended with somthign like 13% roi. While I'm sure he was running somewhat good, its hard to believe his true ROI is 6% or lower.
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#13
09-21-2005, 05:23 PM
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Re: I\'m back, serious thoughts on possible 215 ROI\'s
I guess i suck then [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] Anyways, I believe that if you are actually good at the early and mid game, which I am not, you could easily get 12% roi. The problem is that I learned to be a rock in the early levels so now I am going back and trying to learn it. So far, since I havent been a total rock, i have had 13% roi. I hope I can keep it up so I can consider myself "good" too. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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#14
09-21-2005, 05:26 PM
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Re: I\'m back, serious thoughts on possible 215 ROI\'s
[ QUOTE ]
Im not sure if ZJ was running good to acheive 13% ROI. All the best sng players I know get over 10% ROI in the $215s. [/ QUOTE ] Not Irieguy. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
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#15
09-21-2005, 05:32 PM
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Re: I\'m back, serious thoughts on possible 215 ROI\'s
If a reasonable person plays 1000 SNGs and has a 12% ROI, and then goes on a horrible run and drops 37 buy-ins over 50 SNGs... what will his answer be if you ask him "what is your ROI?"
He will say 12%. Even though it is not. I see it all the time, on this forum and in person. I see honest, professional, poker-playing friends respond the same way. My 6% number is a REAL number. It counts misclicks, internet disconnects, drunken evenings, bad decisions, family deaths, and a breakup with your girlfriend. It counts a bad streak that may be worse than what you think you deserve. It also assumes that the player multi-tables. Life and statistics happen. Many players will play a lot of $215s and have better than 6% ROI. I know several with >10% for a long time. But if you want to know what the true, expected long-term ROI of a great player over 1 year, or 10,000 $215 SNGs will be... it will be closer to my 6% than to any number suggested by other zealots. Anyone who vigorously disagrees with this will not be around to argue the fact in 12 months. (a side bet I have yet to lose) Irieguy
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#16
09-21-2005, 05:56 PM
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Re: I\'m back, serious thoughts on possible 215 ROI\'s
The reasoning about some players have 1-10% chance is not good. I doubt there are many players under 20% ITM.
Still, I think the truth probably lies somewhere in between and I would be willing to bet that, say, Curtains, is over, say 9% for his next, say, 1000. Though, I wouldn't be willing to bet a real large amount on it.
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#17
09-21-2005, 06:14 PM
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Re: I\'m back, serious thoughts on possible 215 ROI\'s
[ QUOTE ]
The reasoning about some players have 1-10% chance is not good. I doubt there are many players under 20% ITM. Still, I think the truth probably lies somewhere in between and I would be willing to bet that, say, Curtains, is over, say 9% for his next, say, 1000. Though, I wouldn't be willing to bet a real large amount on it. [/ QUOTE ] Would you bet the cost of an expensive lunch at a nice restaurant?...(No Yugo) [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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#20
09-21-2005, 06:38 PM
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Re: I\'m back, serious thoughts on possible 215 ROI\'s
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, that would be a good sized bet. [/ QUOTE ] What about the amount it would take for me to attend? [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Yugoslav <font color="white">MmmmMmmMMMMmmmmm Lobster Bisque</font>
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