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#12
06-26-2005, 01:30 AM
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Re: phil ivey just saying \"fug it\" to the wsop prelim events
[ QUOTE ]
Maybe Phil just entered the first few events to get a feel for the Rio before the Main Event started. [/ QUOTE ] Based on what I read earlier the biggest problem for him is that even when he enters these small events, he is more eager to make it to the side game. And when you have the attitude that you wouldn't mind busting, I think it is not all that surprising that he doesn't perform at his highest level. I think another factor worth considering is that for degenerates like Ivey, the side games really cut into his sleep. I do suspect most of them try to get some more sleep for the main event though. 
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#14
06-26-2005, 03:43 AM
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Re: phil ivey just saying \"fug it\" to the wsop prelim events
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] in a sense, i don't blame him. i'm sure cash games for him, as with most successful cash players, is steady money. Chau Giang, i think it was at the WPT Tunica event, said that he wins or loses $200,000 to $300,000 a night. let's take winning $300,000 in several hours in the $4K/$8K. in this year's $10K ME, he would have to play for several days and make it to possibly the last 2 or 3 tables out of thousands of players to win that kind of money. that's not to say all the $4K/$8K regulars won't be in the $10K ME but it can certainly shed some light on their mentality toward these lower buy-in 2 day events. [/ QUOTE ] A few months ago, it was stated by someone in the know that at most, the big names have a win rate of less than 1 BB/hr in the big game. Maybe this changes during the World Series, more fish perhaps, but in any case, you need to redo your analysis based on this figure, not $300K in a night. [/ QUOTE ] Assistance
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#15
06-26-2005, 04:14 AM
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Re: phil ivey just saying \"fug it\" to the wsop prelim events
[ QUOTE ]
A few months ago, it was stated by someone in the know that at most, the big names have a win rate of less than 1 BB/hr in the big game. Maybe this changes during the World Series, more fish perhaps, but in any case, you need to redo your analysis based on this figure, not $300K in a night. [/ QUOTE ] An expectation of even 4K an hour can produce swings of even 200K-300K a night based on the standard deviation. Do you see why? For further reading check out Gambling Theories and Other Topics
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#16
06-26-2005, 04:34 AM
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Re: phil ivey just saying \"fug it\" to the wsop prelim events
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] in a sense, i don't blame him. i'm sure cash games for him, as with most successful cash players, is steady money. Chau Giang, i think it was at the WPT Tunica event, said that he wins or loses $200,000 to $300,000 a night. let's take winning $300,000 in several hours in the $4K/$8K. in this year's $10K ME, he would have to play for several days and make it to possibly the last 2 or 3 tables out of thousands of players to win that kind of money. that's not to say all the $4K/$8K regulars won't be in the $10K ME but it can certainly shed some light on their mentality toward these lower buy-in 2 day events. [/ QUOTE ] A few months ago, it was stated by someone in the know that at most, the big names have a win rate of less than 1 BB/hr in the big game. Maybe this changes during the World Series, more fish perhaps, but in any case, you need to redo your analysis based on this figure, not $300K in a night. [/ QUOTE ] 
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#17
06-26-2005, 06:50 AM
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Re: phil ivey just saying \"fug it\" to the wsop prelim events
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] in a sense, i don't blame him. i'm sure cash games for him, as with most successful cash players, is steady money. Chau Giang, i think it was at the WPT Tunica event, said that he wins or loses $200,000 to $300,000 a night. let's take winning $300,000 in several hours in the $4K/$8K. in this year's $10K ME, he would have to play for several days and make it to possibly the last 2 or 3 tables out of thousands of players to win that kind of money. that's not to say all the $4K/$8K regulars won't be in the $10K ME but it can certainly shed some light on their mentality toward these lower buy-in 2 day events. [/ QUOTE ] A few months ago, it was stated by someone in the know that at most, the big names have a win rate of less than 1 BB/hr in the big game. Maybe this changes during the World Series, more fish perhaps, but in any case, you need to redo your analysis based on this figure, not $300K in a night. [/ QUOTE ] not sure if this has been mentioned, the game is a rotation game with rounds of Pot Limit Omaha, NL 2-7 single draw, and NL Hold'em. From what I've read the unstructred rounds have a $75,000 per player 'cap', so the 'most' a player could lose is $75,000 on that hand. 4-5 hands loser in one of those rounds ought to add up to around 300K I'd guess.
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#19
06-26-2005, 12:32 PM
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Re: phil ivey just saying \"fug it\" to the wsop prelim events
This proves that Phil Ivey is a brilliant poker player, and very poor business man. A braclet is worth a hell of alot more money to an already famous, young, popular poker star than whatever he can make playing Doyle and Chip.
I'm obviously only guessing, but Daniel Negreanu's poker related deals (Wynn, Stacked, etc) are probably worth more than a month at the big game. If we assume that he's not the biggest winner in that game (most poker players point to Chip Reese as the biggest winner in the big game), he's just making a bad decision here. If Ivey goes on a tear at the WSOP, winning one or two televised events, he'll earn a shitload of money, and I'm not talking about the prize money. The biggest money is in endorsement deals, sponsor, commercials, advertising campaigns, etc. Poker is coming out of it shell, the biggest explosion has yet to come. The Doyle group are a dying breed of brilliant, old school players, who missed the media franzy bus. Ivey, for some reason, is just refusing to get on it.
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#20
06-26-2005, 12:39 PM
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Re: phil ivey just saying \"fug it\" to the wsop prelim events
[ QUOTE ]
The Doyle group are a dying breed of brilliant, old school players, who missed the media franzy bus. Ivey, for some reason, is just refusing to get on it. [/ QUOTE ] Now this is just plain silly. Ivey is an active member/"owner" of Full Tilt. Eventually, if all goes well with FTP, he will make as much from end of year shareholder distributions or share appreciation as he does playing. poker.
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