How would you play this?

[BoogerFace]

*grunch*

Fold preflop.

[Bill Lumberg]

Call the flop and raise a non-heart turn. The turn and river are very weak. It’s less than a 1% chance that someone flops a flush. You do, and now you are afraid of another one? We need to be charging the trips or straights made here. You lost a lot of BBs on this hand.

[Bill Lumberg]

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I would play it the same on the flop. I would bet out on the turn and if villain 3bet the turn then I would check fold the river

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Fold a flopped flush when no other hearts come? Ouch.

[milesdyson]

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wait until i move up to 0.25/0.50, and then see how big my ego gets

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Blow your 0.50/1 roll on that halloween costume so you had to drop back down to 0.10/0.20, eh?

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exactly

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It’s less than a 1% chance that someone flops a flush

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1. show math
2. explain why you would ever even worry about this number, when postflop, more and more information becomes available to make a better assessment of hand ranges? ie. if a sane player continued to cap you repeatedly, would you just say, "ahhh 99% of the time he doesn't have a flush - cappuccino!!"

[Bill Lumberg]

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1. show math
2. explain why you would ever even worry about this number, when postflop, more and more information becomes available to make a better assessment of hand ranges? ie. if a sane player continued to cap you repeatedly, would you just say, "ahhh 99% of the time he doesn't have a flush - cappuccino!!"

[/ QUOTE ]

Just giving perspective to the situation. Hero's information was a flop 3-bet and he put villain on a second flopped flush when it's less than 1% to flop one. A flop 3-bet is never enough to deduce that villain also flopped a flush.

The math is:

13/52 * 12/51 * 11/50 * 10/49 * 9/48 = .05%

[milesdyson]

11 other hearts in the deck since we have 2 already, but it really doesn't matter. (edit: and yeah your first card doesnt matter). the point was that those kind of raw probabilities are not really helpful for determining correct postflop play. they're just interesting, superficial tidbits of poker knowledge.

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The math is:

13/52 * 12/51 * 11/50 * 10/49 * 9/48 = .05%

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Bill, this doesn't make much sense. Every time you are dealt a card, it's one card to a flush. So the 13/52 term shouldn't be there at all. Thus the percent of the time you will end up with a flush when you are dealt five random cards is (12/51)*(11/50)*(10/49)*(9/48) = ~.20%.

However, given that we know our two hole cards are suited, the chances we will flop a flush are (11/50)*(10/49)*(9/48) = ~.84%. That is the just under one percent figure I think you were thinking of.

Yet this still isn't the relevant number for us to consider. What we would like to know is, "What percent of the time that we flop a flush will an opponent also have flopped a flush?" Assuming we are playing one opponent, and he has a random distribution of cards, the chances are (7/48)*(6/47) = ~ 1.86%. In reality, though, it is more likely that someone else has flopped a flush, because:

1. People are more likely to play their suited hands than their offsuit hands; and
2. We have three opponents, not one.

So I'd guess it's like 5% of the time that someone else will have flopped a flush.

[Bill Lumberg]

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The math is:

13/52 * 12/51 * 11/50 * 10/49 * 9/48 = .05%

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Bill, this doesn't make much sense. Every time you are dealt a card, it's one card to a flush. So the 13/52 term shouldn't be there at all. Thus the percent of the time you will end up with a flush when you are dealt five random cards is (12/51)*(11/50)*(10/49)*(9/48) = ~.20%.

However, given that we know our two hole cards are suited, the chances we will flop a flush are (11/50)*(10/49)*(9/48) = ~.84%. That is the just under one percent figure I think you were thinking of.

Yet this still isn't the relevant number for us to consider. What we would like to know is, "What percent of the time that we flop a flush will an opponent also have flopped a flush?" Assuming we are playing one opponent, and he has a random distribution of cards, the chances are (7/48)*(6/47) = ~ 1.86%. In reality, though, it is more likely that someone else has flopped a flush, because:

1. People are more likely to play their suited hands than their offsuit hands; and
2. We have three opponents, not one.

So I'd guess it's like 5% of the time that someone else will have flopped a flush.

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Yeah, you sure did make a lot more sense out of it than I did.

[Bill Lumberg]

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11 other hearts in the deck since we have 2 already, but it really doesn't matter. (edit: and yeah your first card doesnt matter). the point was that those kind of raw probabilities are not really helpful for determining correct postflop play. they're just interesting, superficial tidbits of poker knowledge.

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They are helpful when thinking about what villain's flop 3-bet means. Don't you use probabilities when trying to put your opponents on hands? Does a PF raise mean AA or AK? Probably AK, because it's more probable .

Does villain's flop 3-bet mean another flush? Or AA-QQ,TT,AK,etc. Probably not a flush. A turn 3-bet and the probability shifts toward the flush.

That's what I'm pointing out to OP, because he got scared of another flush after a flop 3-bet, which is way too weak.

[milesdyson]

here's all i'm saying (and it's not that important):

knowing the odds of some player at the table flopping a certain hand is not important at all. what is important is being able to read hands in order to come up with hand ranges for other players.

edit: also, since we're on this whole random hand probability bullcrap.... all this under 1% stuff is not right. we see that the flop has 3 hearts. we also have 2 hearts. the probability that this guy also has 2 hearts (obviously assuming he would play all hands exactly the same preflop), is

8/47 * 7/46 = 0.0259, or 2.6%. does it matter? nope.