Beating the Party 10+1, Part 2

[AleoMagus]

Personally, I will never play Axs anywhere at any stage less than the final 3.

It just doesn't make any sense to in my opinion. Not with Party's structure anyways

It's 30-1 against making your flush (and chasing a paired ace is just gonna hurt you). At almost no stage is anyone's stack much more than 30x the BB so even if you do manage to bust someone, you are not getting very good return for you risk.

The worst thing that can happen is that you catch a flush draw because you are still 2-1 against making it, and you are bound to flush a lot of money down the drain with a nut flush draw. They look so promising, but they are really not.

If you absolutely can't let go of Axs, try to at least play it in the last 2 or 3 positions. Then you can probably at least outplay your opponents with it on the flop (free cards, semi bluffs, checked aces tell you that you might have the only ace, etc...)

Me, I'm just not playing them (...maybe A9s on the button...And A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] of course [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img] which I seem to have no willpower to let go of)

Regards
Brad S

[NotMitch]

Depends on the size of my stack and how likely I am to get called really (yeah I know like that helped). I need to do some thinking on the specifics but I will post my thoughts on it later, but if I am short enough to push with any ace I will push with any king as well. But for the guide I think A7+ is fine and feels about right.

[OPJayhawk]

I play the $10 SnG's too and have been doing pretty well.

I do pretty well with AK. My normal play with this hand if its in the early rounds is to hit it with a raise or open for $125 or $150.

I almost always get one caller. Very rarely do I get 2 callers and very rarely do I get zero callers although it does happen.

80% plus of the time regardless of the flop I come in for 200-250. Most of the time probably 80% plus the person you have isolated down to will lay down now.

If this doesnt work alot of times I will hit them again on 4th street for another $200 and again you will get a fair number of people who lay down here.

I like to give people opportunties to lay down and most of the time they will take one.

One other factor that I think really helps is just being friendly with people at the table. When it gets down to 4 or 5 and you're all in with a medium stack it just seems people are less likely to call you and would prefer to go after the guy who has been a jerk (if there is one at the table) or the guy who got lucky, or the guy who plays to slow.

I am certainly no expert but there things seem to be working pretty well for me.

OPJayhawk

[AleoMagus]

It's funny you know. The more I look at this guide, the more I loathe the whole concept of a 'guide' to playing poker

I know that it helps many players, but the answer you just gave:

[ QUOTE ]
Depends on the size of my stack and how likely I am to get called really

[/ QUOTE ]

is just too true in too many instances.

Still, I guess we are really only talking about Party 10+1 here so an algorithim for winning play is entirely possible.

Regards
Brad S

[VarlosZ]

[ QUOTE ]
What are everyone's thoughts about Axs? In a passive game, I limp with Axs almost all of the time. . .

[/ QUOTE ]
I think you can do this as long as: (1) like AleoMagus said, you only do it from around back, and (2) you realize that if all you flop is a lone Ace, you've missed your hand.

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
Bubble play is hard and I could probably make a whole strategy guide on this subject alone.

[/ QUOTE ]

I totally agree, but it would be worth the effort. Getting to the final 4 or 5 is simple. We can argue about how to play 66 at the 10/15 level, but seriously....if you have brain you are going to make the final 5 most of the time.

Once you are in the top 3, the blinds are so high that it really comes down to getting good cards. Other than saying to play aggressively, there's not much to add.

The real question is what to do when there are 4 or 5 left.

If you want know how I play the bubble, here is my plan....
Stealing the Blinds - Once I get to the final 4-5, I will immediately start raising 3xBB when I'm on the button or sb and it was folded to me. I want to figure out ASAP how easy people will give up their blinds. If they keep folding immediately, I'll drop down to 2xBB.

If they reraise, I'll probably call if its small. If I have a premium hand, of course I would move all-in.

I'll bet the flop if it hits me at all or if there's an Ace on the flop (since I raised, they'll think I have an ace). I'll usually bet the same amount as pre-flop (ie 2-3xBB). Most people would always bet the pot, but that's probably a lot of $. Just like pre-flop, you want to bet the minimum that will get them to fold. Most players will call any bet if they hit the flop, and fold to any if they didnt.

I will usually check it down on the turn and river, unless I have a monster. Since they called my bet on the flop, they have something and may well be trapping me.

Protecting the Blinds - I must admit I'm not the best here. I rarely try to protect my SB. I only have 1/2 a bet committed, and the BB is yet to act. It really depends on the raiser. If they keep trying to steal, you should try to reraise and steal their bet and the BB. I might do this with AA-88, AK-A9, KQ-KT, and possibly others if I had enough chips. If successful, this will discourage them from stealing...which will allow you to steal the BB yourself.

If you are in the BB, you cannot allow people to min raise you. If they min-raise, you must re-raise if at all possible. Once they get the message, they will have to bet at least 3xBB.

If I had to summarize....
- Try to steal as cheaply as possible. Try 3xbb right away, then drop to 2xbb if the blinds keep folding.
- Steal with any pair, any A, any 2 cards T or higher, and any suited connector. Add hands like K9, T9o, and occasional garbage if it's working well.
- If you raised pre-flop, bet the same amount on the flop if it hits you at all or an A flops. Then check the turn/river to avoid traps.
- Don't defend too much from SB, but be ready to reraise if people are stealing a lot with small raises and the BB isn't doing anything about it.
- Don't allow people to min-raise your BB. Reraise with any A, K, QJ, QT, JT, pair, or suited connector.
- Try to reraise rather than call. Calling doesnt really discourage blind stealers.
- If you are short stack, just try to get ahead of the other short stacks and stay there. You don't need to double or triple up.

[NotMitch]

[ QUOTE ]
It's funny you know. The more I look at this guide, the more I loathe the whole concept of a 'guide' to playing poker

I know that it helps many players, but the answer you just gave:

[ QUOTE ]
Depends on the size of my stack and how likely I am to get called really

[/ QUOTE ]

is just too true in too many instances.

Still, I guess we are really only talking about Party 10+1 here so an algorithim for winning play is entirely possible.

Regards
Brad S

[/ QUOTE ]


Brad,

Agree 100%. Poker is a game of situations and the outline provided will give a new player a great start towards being a winning player. But when it comes down to short handed play in a SnG it becomes more art than science, and the only way a new player is going to get comfortable in these situations is by playing them over and over.

Regarding the weak aces and pushing here is the reason Im more willing to push with kings sometimes. One of the things that can happen is that the opponent will fold so it doesnt matter what you have so lets ignore that. But when the opponent calls what does he have most of the time? Almost always from what I have seen an ace or a pair.

If he has a pair and you have overcards you are likely to be a small dog so there is really no difference if you hodl Ax or Kx.

If you both have an acesomeone is dominted and the smaller the ace is a huge dog. When pushing with a king you are unlikely to be dominated which means you are likely in a coinflip against hands that will call. The downside of course of pushing with a king is you are unlikely to be called by a hand that is dominated, so you do lose a little there.


Im not saying that Kx is better that Ax but given the range of hands you are likely to be called by a lot of times you are better off with a king. And FWIW I think I would like my kicker to be at least an 8 to get some protection from small pairs that will call. Hope this didn't ramble too much.

[AleoMagus]

I was talking a bit about this recently in a thread started by eastbay. He was running heads up hand rankings but not the usual hand ranking vs Random hand that you usually see

He ran this sim vs what he called the 'push hands'
He originally ran vs Any Ace and any PP

I realized immediately that this had something important to say about calling down shortstacked all-in on the bubble

I suggested he also run rankings vs Any Axs,A7+,PP, and suited broadway cards. They results were similar but slightly different

Generally, the only hands that are a favorite against a random 'push hand' are Pocket pairs 66+, and AT+

What this says about which hands you should actually be pushing with, I'm not sure exactly

I suppose I should get him to run a sim vs what I will call 'call down hands'. These will be exactly the cards he determined to be typical favorites

66+, AT+

Here is the thread I'm talking about if anyone wants to check it out.Personally, I think it is one of the best I've seen on this forum.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...mp;sb=5&o=

So, If eastbay sees this and is gracious enough to answer with some results, maybe we'll get a better idea

Regards,
Brad S

[AleoMagus]

In thinking about this myself, a couple things come to mind.

First, I suspect that the only hands which will have a positive expectation against 66+ and AT+ will be even better than these hands. Probably AQ,AK and TT+

This is not to suggest that we should wait for those hands to push when shortstacked. After all, we are usually hoping to not get called. A huge chunk of profit comes from stealing in these situations.

Still, hands like A4s will probably do much worse against these 'call down hands' than KJ (just as you suggest)

Regards,
Brad S

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
I was talking a bit about this recently in a thread started by eastbay. He was running heads up hand rankings but not the usual hand ranking vs Random hand that you usually see

He ran this sim vs what he called the 'push hands'
He originally ran vs Any Ace and any PP

I realized immediately that this had something important to say about calling down shortstacked all-in on the bubble

I suggested he also run rankings vs Any Axs,A7+,PP, and suited broadway cards. They results were similar but slightly different

Generally, the only hands that are a favorite against a random 'push hand' are Pocket pairs 66+, and AT+

What this says about which hands you should actually be pushing with, I'm not sure exactly

I suppose I should get him to run a sim vs what I will call 'call down hands'. These will be exactly the cards he determined to be typical favorites

66+, AT+

Here is the thread I'm talking about if anyone wants to check it out.Personally, I think it is one of the best I've seen on this forum.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...mp;sb=5&o=

So, If eastbay sees this and is gracious enough to answer with some results, maybe we'll get a better idea

Regards,
Brad S

[/ QUOTE ]

Brad,

You're asking a question I've been thinking about for some time now. Of course, being a math geek I've thought about it in a slightly different way.

The question I wanted to ask was: what happens if you choose a top % of the list, and feed it back into itself? what happens if you keep repeating that process? Does it settle into a stable list, or does it cycle around as hands which do well against the current top move up, and then hands which do well against those move up, etc.

One way to try this is to pick the top% that you want to feed back into the calculation. So let's say you start with the "vs random hand" rankings, then you pick the top half of those, and re-rank according to how well each hand matches up to that select list. Pick the top half again and repeat.

It's something I'll see if I can automate and try soon. I'll post the results in a new thread if I can make it work.

eastbay