QQ flop decision

[mike l.]

"I raise hoping the small, loose, aggresssive, rich, stoned blind raises. If not maybe he'll call, they'll all check to you on the turn, you can bet and maybe he'll check/raise then."

if i thought he was dependable to do anything i wouldve tried one of these. ditto the rest of the field. the one tendency they have is to call, and when faced with raises, call some more. i felt some hope that small blind would keep pushing with absolutely whatever he had (and just about anything was possible) on the turn when faced with no resistance on the flop. beyond that i couldnt count on anyone to cooperate with any sort of field-narrowing plays.

[bobgreen]

Mike

Waiting until the turn to raise won't protect your pot because the limpalongs are between the bettor and you. On the turn they'll be trapped for one bet at a time.

If you raise now and sb 3-bets, or if you raise now and sb calls, then leads at the turn, the limpalongs might give up.

A flop raise now puts $4 (or $5?) strange in the pot for every $1 that you put in. If you wait until the turn you may not get as much leverage.

If the rich stoner really does have the goods, raising and calling a 3-bet on the flop saves you one big bet over raising and calling a 3-bet on the turn. I don't think you can fold to any 3-bet from an aggressive stoned guy.

Bob

[mike l.]

"Waiting until the turn to raise won't protect your pot"

i just want to respond to this one thing because i think it's the only thing i left out of my other replies.

in this hand im not only wanting to protect my pot, although that is my primary concern. im also looking for ways to build an even bigger pot and get max value out of my hand. in other words, im looking for the play that will best balance:

a. saving the whole pot for me as much as possible (and given this field, remember, i may have to accept that there's no way to really do this) and

b. creating as big a pot as possible given a flop (and then turn) that has a great likelihood of my hand showing down as pretty close to the nuts.

just something more to add into the equation.

[rigoletto]

I was with Elysium on the flop raise until you wrote this:

i dont want to raise the flop, have it reraised, have everyone call anyways

If there is very little chance of folding anybody on the flop, raise the turn instead.

But then I thought - wait a minute, this reminds me of my regular B&M game. Those players never consider odds, they call 3 cold on the flop because they want to see one more card and make sure their hand is completely hopeless before they fold. The point being that the whole 'how do I best shut them out' consideration is mute. So now I raise the flop because I want to get money from the almost impossible hands before they get totally impossible (+ wow, sb might even 3-bet). I raise the flop because I don't mind winning it right there or losing a couple of players and because I get a better read on sb.

[andyfox]

I'm not sure you can do both a and b.

If I had aces, I think you can do a better job at doing both because you're not (as) worried about a K or Q coming off as you are about and A or K coming off when you have Queens.

The pot's already pretty big, now win it. When you call the flop, it's likely the flop bettor will bet the turn (which he did). And it's likely there's gonna be some callers between him and you (there were). And when you raise it's likely they're all gonna stick around for the river (they did). And you're putting yourself at maximum risk to lose the pot. That is, by trying to do both a and b, your risking having b without a, which, of course, is a disaster.

So I'll risk losing some b. Maybe that's my personality and style of play. With queens, with these types of opponents who are likely they're gonna always call for one more bet, I'll try to figure the most likely way to make it two cold to them. By raising the flop, I figure I have two chances to do it: if the LAG 3-bets right then on the flop, or if he check-raises on the turn. I don't see how it can happen if I call the flop.

But I can see the argument for calling the flop and raising the turn. I don't think it's clear that one is correct and one is wrong. I think it's 60-40 in favor of raising the flop.

I too would be interested in the opinions of those others you mentioned.

BTW, the answer to the question you posed on the other forum is 14 sessions, +24,000. OTOH, I once lost $1500 in a 20-40 game without taking back one chip. And I mean not even a chopped blind. Cest la vie.

[andyfox]

"I don't think you can fold to any 3-bet from an aggressive stoned guy."

I don't put a motto at the bottom of my posts, but, if I did, that would definitely be it! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Vehn]

I'm not ulysses/coilean/mason/sklansky but clearly waiting for the turn to raise is correct. There's no way to protect your hand, might as well get the money in. Actually I can't think of a card including any diamond that I wouldn't raise on the turn with assuming it goes bet call call call. Maybe not the Ad or Kd or another jack. But I would raise a non diamond A or K for sure.

[cero_z]

Hi mike,
Raise the flop for sure. 2 reasons:
1)The player most likely to be ahead of you now is the all-in player, so you should build the side pot.
2) Vehn said, [ QUOTE ]
There's no way to protect your hand, might as well get the money in.

[/ QUOTE ] ... and I agree. But, I think raising the flop will tie everyone on to the already-too-big-to-protect-your-hand pot. You are just going to have to get lots of money in there, and hope your hand is good at the end. If by some miracle the SB re-pops, and the other players fold, that is great for you, but I think they'll call regardless.

[elysium]

[Rick Nebiolo]

Mike,

I'll answer without looking at the others just for drill.

Your pre flop three bet after several cold callers has marked you with very big suited cards, AK (I would think) or a big pair. Your opponents don't know how big a pair or which suit so I'd tend to raise on the flop. If the SB three bets you won't lose diamond draws but you might lose some middle pairs and back door draws (which you want with a pot this big). Meanwhile it sounds like you will be at least calling the SB down anyway since he sounds like the type who will reraise with a worse hand as often as a better hand. If the SB just calls (this is unlikely) you won't lose anyone but you take a little bit of control of the hand.

OTOH, the alternative of calling and waiting for the turn to pop it isn't too bad. First, the turn may come very bad (e.g. a diamond, an ace or a king) and you may be slowing down against a bet or tossing your hand against a bet and legit raise. In this case you'd be happy the pot is smaller. Second, if the turn comes good the SB is likely to lead bet and trap some players in between the two of you. You should be making money in this spot since you should still have the best hand about 40% of the time or so.

Regards,

Rick