|
|
|
|
#1
12-20-2005, 07:26 PM
|
|||
|
|||
Re: was I right to raise the turn?
assuming we have all twelve outs, our equity is 12/46, or 26%. surely there must be some discount for a possible higher flush draw here. we can also not realistically assume that everyone always calls. this can't be +EV, and this is ignoring the benefits of being bet into on the river compared to being checked to. you're basically lowering your own implied odds and pushing a nonexistant equity edge.
|
|
#2
12-20-2005, 07:36 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: was I right to raise the turn?
we don't lose implied odds, because if we hit a flush or straight, we won't get to raise on the river. an overcall or betting out would probably be more profitable. since everyone would be forced to call two cold.
in fact, as I think about it, I think we gain implied odds because it disguises are hand... most people won't put us on a flush if we hit (and almost certainly not on a straight)
|
|
#3
12-20-2005, 07:37 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: was I right to raise the turn?
[ QUOTE ]
we don't lose implied odds, because if we hit a flush or straight, we won't get to raise on the river. an overcall or betting out would probably be more profitable. since everyone would be forced to call two cold. [/ QUOTE ] With his turn checkraise, SB suddenly became the aggressor in the hand. You have good relative position to him on the river if you catch.
|
|
#4
12-20-2005, 07:41 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: was I right to raise the turn?
you're right nick... my oversight, I forgot about that (since he folded) which, may I say, at the time really confused me
|
|
#5
12-20-2005, 07:40 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: was I right to raise the turn?
[ QUOTE ]
because if we hit a flush or straight, we won't get to raise on the river [/ QUOTE ] uh what? sure they'll check sometimes on a flush card, but you're basically screaming "SET" when you call/3-bet the turn. there's no way you're ever going to get to raise your made hand playing it this way. plus who the hell would know you made a straight with a river 7 anyway? [ QUOTE ] in fact, as I think about it, I think we gain implied odds because it disguises are hand... most people won't put us on a flush if we hit (and almost certainly not on a straight) [/ QUOTE ] yeah so someone's just going to bluff bet into you because they think you'll fold to the flush they're representing? to increase your implied odds you have to make people more likely to play back at you. you are representing a MONSTER on the turn. if someone bet into you on a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] river, you should only call because they'll have a flush super often based on how strong your turn play is.
|
|
#6
12-20-2005, 07:43 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: was I right to raise the turn?
[ QUOTE ]
assuming we have all twelve outs, our equity is 12/46, or 26%. surely there must be some discount for a possible higher flush draw here. we can also not realistically assume that everyone always calls. this can't be +EV, and this is ignoring the benefits of being bet into on the river compared to being checked to. you're basically lowering your own implied odds and pushing a nonexistant equity edge. [/ QUOTE ] I'm glad someone said this, because the turn 3-bet isn't close. Assuming 12 clean outs and that everyone always calls this line has an EV of +0.04BB. If SB has a set, someone holds a fd or someone folds it immediately turn into a clearly -EV decision. And as you point out, the tiny lost we might make by not raising the turn is very easily compensated by the times we're able to raise the entire field on the river when we're actually a ~95% favorite to take the pot instead of a ~25% favorite.
|
|
#8
12-20-2005, 09:58 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: was I right to raise the turn?
[ QUOTE ]
] Turn: (4 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font> SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, BB calls, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, SB folds, BB calls, UTG+2 calls. [/ QUOTE ] As you know this would have been perfect flop play execuation - on the turn its alot of ramming and jamming that you are going to end up folding with one the river. Save ram and jams for the flop - with, with the double whammy draw you had, i most certainly would have done. I gurantee no one puts you on the straight on the river, would have got similar action. Sarge[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
|
|
#9
12-20-2005, 10:00 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: was I right to raise the turn?
The think it yr hand has like no SD value UI. Plus if you hit on the river you likely get someone to bet into you. I don't see the value of a river 3 bet here -- you don't (I think) have enough equity to make it immediately profitable.
|
 |
|
|
Hybrid Mode
