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#11
10-09-2005, 11:04 AM
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Re: nfl week 5 picks
Cool, good luck, now get the hell out of my threads starting
... ... ... now. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] (This is all sarcasm, I know the internet doesn't portray that very well - hence the addition of the "crazy" and "grin" smiley faces) 
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#12
10-09-2005, 11:09 AM
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Re: nfl week 5 picks
[ QUOTE ]
If the game were at home, yes no question, but ST, TOs and home field are so much a part of the game that they're not simple caveats, that's all. [/ QUOTE ] I disagree - only one of these factors is guaranteed to affect on-field performance, and that's special teams. Special teams is the only factor that is guaranteed to happen. Turnovers aren't guaranteed - you can specualate and say if they don't turn the ball over at all, there's no way they can lose - or vice versa. And also, home field advantage typically has bigger meaning between two good teams, or in a playoff game for example. Look at how the Eagles dismantled Dallas in Dallas last year on a MONDAY NIGHT. Again, that's not a factor thats guranteed either - sure they can be loud on third down, but when you've got a top 5 team in the league in your building, how much do you really think that affects them? So in summary, turnovers and home field advantage, in my opinion, ARE simple caveats when you're talking about the game before it happens. The only one that is not is special teams, which I definitely stated is below average right now. Maybe removing Hood as a kick returner will jumpstart the unit - however their coverage team still sucks (being a billion dollars under the cap and not using a few bucks to resign Ike Reese had irked me the whole offseason, and on special teams it definitely shows)
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#13
10-09-2005, 12:05 PM
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Re: nfl week 5 picks
[ QUOTE ]
It's easier to just piggy back than start another thread no one would read [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] On that note... NE+2 (2 units) Jax-2.5 (-125, 2u) NE+110 NYJ+3 (-120) SF+15.5 (-105) BUF-3 (-115, .5 unit) NYJ+135 (.5u) I'm sure I'll have a couple more later if I get time to add them. I like a lot of the 4 p.m. games. I expect Dallas to move to +3.5 later. YTD: 31-23 +6.84 units. Adding NO+3 for half a unit. natedogg made me do it [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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#14
10-09-2005, 12:20 PM
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Re: nfl week 5 picks
The backing of the home crowd, not needing to travel to play a game as well as not being bothered by a loud road crowd while on offense unquestionably affect on-field performance. If you don't think so I'd encourage you to bet road teams more often and poll your results later. You can do it successfully by hand-picking games very selectively, but I disagree completely that home field doesn't affect performance. I'm not saying it's always a factor -- obviously home teams can get blown out at any time like Phi at Dall last year, but to say it's not a factor is a little disingenuous.
Turnovers are projectable to varying degrees. If you disagree then you think they're just caveats; if you agree, then it's hard to argue that they're only caveats.
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#18
10-09-2005, 07:31 PM
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Re: nfl week 5 picks
[ QUOTE ]
Eagles -3 - Reasons the Eagles can lose/not cover in this game: Special teams is still below average. The defensive line injuries have forced two practice squad guys to be activated for the game. [/ QUOTE ] Whew, what a mess that was. Special teams doomed us early, and they ate up Lito Sheppard all day. Quite a whoopin', that was. Remember Eagles off a bye week are money, so watch the Week 7 lines this week. Dallas 33, Eagles 10 Bills -2.5 - Bills 20, Dolphins 14 Tampa/NYJ over 31.5 - NYJ 14, TB 12
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#19
10-09-2005, 07:38 PM
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Re: nfl week 5 picks
scott, as much as i love arguing semantics and picking apart one another's words to justify one's points - you keep picking your picks the way you do, and i'll keep picking my picks the way i do... hope your season turns around soon - good luck
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#20
10-09-2005, 07:40 PM
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Re: nfl week 5 picks
[ QUOTE ]
Thanx for makling Big Al stop posting [/ QUOTE ] i hope the guy is okay - as much as i love fading his picks and winning, i don't wish ill health on anyone...
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