a tight flop spot in the big blind hand quiz

[jetsonsdogcanfly]

K9o is a hand that has substantial reverse-implied odds relative to its equity. In some spots, you clearly miss and fold- oh well, that goes into the 80% bucket. In spots where you hit, it is ulikely that you will be adequately compensated if in fact you have a winner. But how easily are you going to get away from a flop you get a piece of?

Basically, you have to win more than you lose in the hands you continue with for the preflop call to be +EV. Unless your opponents are very bad, this is more easily said than done with a hand like K9.

[DeeJ]

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K9o is a hand that has substantial reverse-implied odds relative to its equity.

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Absolutely, and I understand that. If a King flops you have to be extremely careful to find out if someone else has a King, because if they do they very likely have you outkicked. The pf equity (allin) is a win/lose after all the cards are out; but as I know a decent MP/LP player won't be raising with K7 or K8 I can get away from it.

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In some spots, you clearly miss and fold- oh well, that goes into the 80% bucket. In spots where you hit, it is ulikely that you will be adequately compensated if in fact you have a winner. But how easily are you going to get away from a flop you get a piece of?

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This is why you need to play it. I think you win the "most" from the 9 hitting rather than a King as people play Kings with better kickers more often. It's an extremely valid concern. Nobody has yet said whether they play KT, KJ etc in this circumstance. We must be pretty close to the line here.

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Basically, you have to win more than you lose in the hands you continue with for the preflop call to be +EV.

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to be a nit, this is wrong because you already have 8 SB in the pot. So you need to win at least -7 SB on average, postflop, for the pf call to be >0 EV.

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Unless your opponents are very bad, this is more easily said than done with a hand like K9.

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Point taken. I think I always fold K7 and usually K8 here (depending on the players). K9 and above I play in this specific scenario. I'd be folding it against an earlier position raise or for more than 1 extra bet.

I think the fact that you are a decent way ahead makes it definitely playable here at 7:1. In fact this hand shows one example of how the 9 alone may make the hand a winner.

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OK, so the majority of people are going for calling. I was thinking that raising might have been the popular play to try to push him out of a draw, but his odds will be slightly better (calling 2) than mine if he's on a draw. It will be easy for him to call if he's on a draw for 1 more, but he might reraise. He would probably fold a 7 or 6 though.

Anyway, as with the vote, I called, MP2 calls behind.

Turn: (7 BB) A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue"> (3 players) </font>
Hero .....

Action is on me with a flush draw plus now an overcard. What now for my K9?

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If the villain has JJs,QQs,or KKs with no spade, this will be the scariest turn card ever. If you think the villain is capable of folding these type of hands than you should checkraise the turn, if not check/call.

If either one of these players had a flush draw, you would be drawing dead 50% of the time on the turn. I check and fold on the turn, but then again, I like a fold on the flop. It's too close to call when two of your outs could be dead. Not to mention someone could hold 99 in which case, you're drawing to a split if you're not drawing dead....blah blah blah....i really think this is one that can be let go on the flop, or maybe even PF. I dont like K9, especailly OOP.

[jayheaps]

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If either one of these players had a flush draw, you would be drawing dead 50% of the time on the turn. I check and fold on the turn, but then again, I like a fold on the flop. It's too close to call when two of your outs could be dead. Not to mention someone could hold 99 in which case, you're drawing to a split if you're not drawing dead....blah blah blah....i really think this is one that can be let go on the flop, or maybe even PF. I dont like K9, especailly OOP.

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completely agree about the fold on the flop. one thing you didnt mention is that there is a decent chance it make end up 3 or 4-bet back to you

exactly. i hardly see the value in playing this hand OOP PF, and then cold calling OOP with a draw that isn't very big for a pot that ins't, either.

[DcifrThs]

wierd...very weird distribution you have here for your poll.

i was on the wierd end of it. MP bets after limp/calling preflop. he likely has the spade draw/pair + draw/naked 9/ naked T if hes really bad/T+pair. many of these hands you dont want there. the spade draw wont fold. but a hdn like K7s will likely fold for 2 cold. further, the CO could easily be raising overs in position for a free card or has a pair. I think you have enough equity here to warrant getting the pot HU and cleaning up outs to raise.

so i voted raise.

on the turn w/ the As, you check if you raised or called ont he flop. if the spade or T or 5 comes on the river, bet. otherwise, check fold.

Barron

[DeeJ]

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so i voted raise.

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close or not close?

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wierd...very weird distribution you have here for your poll.

i was on the wierd end of it. MP bets after limp/calling preflop. he likely has the spade draw/pair + draw/naked 9/ naked T if hes really bad/T+pair. many of these hands you dont want there. the spade draw wont fold. but a hdn like K7s will likely fold for 2 cold. further, the CO could easily be raising overs in position for a free card or has a pair. I think you have enough equity here to warrant getting the pot HU and cleaning up outs to raise.

so i voted raise.

on the turn w/ the As, you check if you raised or called ont he flop. if the spade or T or 5 comes on the river, bet. otherwise, check fold.

Barron

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I thought about whether the hero is better off raising the flop or calling and I came to the conclusion that the CO is probably not raising overs on this kind of flop. This is obvioulsy just a guess but on this board even aggressive players will call or fold with their overs instead of raising. And I also felt that the MP guy is not betting into the raiser with a draw unless its a combo draw with a pair. So with the combination that I felt the CO had an overpair and that the MP guy probably had a pair that he may or may not fold, I decided that the hero is not going to win this hand unless he hits so calling is best in my opinion. Im not really saying Im right here, just telling you what I was thinking.

[DcifrThs]

thats a lot of pretty stringent assumptions you've set out there...

loosen them just a touch and i think you're decision changes.

Barron