Turn: For Bettor, or worse? - Page 2

ArturiusX · #11 08-20-2005, 08:31 PM

I bet.

#12 08-20-2005, 08:52 PM

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I think BB has a pair.

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Even if BB has a pair, hero has 9 outs to the nut flush...3 outs to the nut straight and possible outs to the A and K. I would assume we probably have 15-16 outs here...discounting the A and K outs a little. With 16 outs hero's draw comes in a little over 34% of the time. With two callers, this should be a marginally profitable bet. Combining the fact that hero can then check down the river for a potential win with A high, I definitely bet this turn. Also, consider you're wrong and instead of a pair the original better has a flush draw. Hero would love a checkraise on this river if a diamond does happen to come. By betting this turn you also gain deception and the posibility of additional bets on the river (think QT or JT here when the T hits).

Lozing

Redd · #13 08-20-2005, 08:58 PM

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Bet. This is obvious, no?

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I don't understand why this is obvious. For what reason are you betting?

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The bet is not just a semibluff; it's also for value. Ignoring the fact that on 2/4 Party it's very possible that neither opponent has a better hand yet (lots of draws on that flop, and plenty of people there will take any ace to showdown), Hero probably has somewhere on the order of 15-16 good outs on the turn (9 flush outs, 3 more straight outs, and his A or K outs are good fairly often as well). With 2 opponents and Hero sitting on a draw that will come in more than 1 in 3 times, not betting would be bad.

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If we give ourselves 15 outs, our draw is coming in 1 time in 3.1, correct? And if we give ourselves 16 outs, the draw comes in 1 time in 2.9. So there's a very slim amount of value, if we assume both Villains will always call. If one villain folds on the turn more than like 10% of the time, then we get pushed into -EV, n'est pas?

#14 08-20-2005, 09:05 PM

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Bet. This is obvious, no?

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I don't understand why this is obvious. For what reason are you betting?

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The bet is not just a semibluff; it's also for value. Ignoring the fact that on 2/4 Party it's very possible that neither opponent has a better hand yet (lots of draws on that flop, and plenty of people there will take any ace to showdown), Hero probably has somewhere on the order of 15-16 good outs on the turn (9 flush outs, 3 more straight outs, and his A or K outs are good fairly often as well). With 2 opponents and Hero sitting on a draw that will come in more than 1 in 3 times, not betting would be bad.

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If we give ourselves 15 outs, our draw is coming in 1 time in 3.1, correct? And if we give ourselves 16 outs, the draw comes in 1 time in 2.9. So there's a very slim amount of value, if we assume both Villains will always call. If one villain folds on the turn more than like 10% of the time, then we get pushed into -EV, n'est pas?

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Yes, on the individual bet here, it is extremely tight on EV and will probably go to -EV if you already assume you are behind. Combining the fact that we might gain additional bets here on the river with the fact that there is a very slim chance that we still have the best hand, I'm betting this turn.

Lozing

#15 08-20-2005, 09:08 PM

I think BB could have a draw here as I think he would have checkraised the majority of his stronger hands here. UTG is passive, so he could have a pair but also a draw. I'm not 100% convinced that we don't still have the best hand here. Although, I'm pretty confident we're on a draw.

Lozing

TemetNosce · #16 08-20-2005, 09:08 PM

Don't discount those times when you bet the turn and one opponent folds and the other opponent is also drawing and you both miss on the river and you win with Ace-high.

brettbrettr · #17 08-20-2005, 09:13 PM

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I think BB could have a draw here as I think he would have checkraised the majority of his stronger hands here. UTG is passive, so he could have a pair but also a draw. I'm not 100% convinced that we don't still have the best hand here. Although, I'm pretty confident we're on a draw.

Lozing

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I don't know what kind of donkey this donkey is but donkey's round here might bet into the PFR in hopes of claering the field.

Good point about Hero getting paid off on the end. In all, this is close. I thought check at first, now I'm thinking bet. C'est pas.

Redd · #18 08-20-2005, 09:19 PM

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Combining the fact that we might gain additional bets here on the river

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The number of bets we make on the river (ie, our implied odds) would be an important factor when we were deciding to call a bet. But when deciding to value-bet we're now only concerned with the number of bets going in on the turn and our equity on the turn, n'est pas? Once we hit the river we'll have a new amount of equity which will determine whether we can value bet (which will be much easier incidentally, because we'll either have a monster or ace-high).

#19 08-20-2005, 09:20 PM

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I don't know what kind of donkey this donkey is but donkey's round here might bet into the PFR in hopes of claering the field.

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If this player thinks at all then he is probably not trying to clear the field here. The other player is inbetween him and the PF raiser. To clear the field, he would have to try a checkraise. I would think he would try to three bet this flop with a very good hand or be on a draw. Of course, a lot of bad players only play their hand so he could be betting a pair.

Lozing

#20 08-20-2005, 09:22 PM

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Combining the fact that we might gain additional bets here on the river

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The number of bets we make on the river (ie, our implied odds) would be an important factor when we were deciding to call a bet. But when deciding to value-bet we're now only concerned with the number of bets going in on the turn and our equity on the turn, n'est pas? Once we hit the river we'll have a new amount of equity which will determine whether we can value bet (which will be much easier incidentally, because we'll either have a monster or ace-high).

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But if we check this turn here I think we lose our "implied odds". It would appear to the other players that we probably have a premium pair here given the way we would play it (by betting the turn). If we check, I believe our hand is completely given away and we lose any additional bets we could have gained on the river.

Lozing