hmm

[chief444]

Since MP2 is fairly passive...I'd much rather bet/fold the river than check/overcall.

[elindauer]

You're the favorite on the flop, and getting 2:1, I'd check-raise. As a side note you'll pick a lot of information about the 3-bettors hand this way since he will be much less likely to 3-bet a hand that you beat with the 3rd player in the pot as well, and he's already passive to begin with.

Your play is ok, certainly very passive and safe against a passive opponent who is showing strength. When your opponent bets the river into 2 players again, your hand is worth a crying call at best, but I couldn't fold either after showing so little strength.

-Eric

If he's capable of raising AK on the flop, I bet.
If he's not, I play the same but I fold the river.

[shant]

[ QUOTE ]
You're the favorite on the flop, and getting 2:1, I'd check-raise.

[/ QUOTE ]
I was wondering why no one else mentioned this because I thought that with the other guy in there it was the right play, and it makes folding the river an easier decision.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You're the favorite on the flop, and getting 2:1, I'd check-raise.

[/ QUOTE ]
I was wondering why no one else mentioned this because I thought that with the other guy in there it was the right play, and it makes folding the river an easier decision.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure I like it. According to his range (AK/AA-TT) you're ahead ~58%. But first you have to estimate how often the pretty passive pfr will bet AK and JJ on this flop against 3 players. If we cut those combos in half (I agree that might be too much) we're only ahead of pfr 40% of the time and remember we're also assuming we're always ahead of UTG. I would say we'll get 3-betted close to always when we're behind. This will fold UTG a pretty good portion of the time, which we don't want since the 3-bet indicates we're always behind and often drawing slim. We're not likely sharing any outs with UTG. So in reality we're not getting 2:1 on our money and we're not ahead as often as we might suspect.

I can see many respected posters like this flop play, but I'm not sure I do. If I think pfr is capable of betting AK/JJ on this flop I go for the check/raise, if not I bet it myself. But it's hard to estimate where the boarderline between these lines goes. Just from the top of my head:

Chance he'll bet AK/JJ=x
x>80% => check/raise
80%>x>70% => check/call
70%>x => bet/call

So I agree there's circumstances where a check/call will be correct. I'm notsure where to put villain in this range since the read is vague, but I think there's a decent chance betting the flop is correct.

[elindauer]

Very interesting analysis Nick. I'm going to have to think about this more.

thanks,
Eric

[oreogod]

[ QUOTE ]
You're the favorite on the flop, and getting 2:1, I'd check-raise. As a side note you'll pick a lot of information about the 3-bettors hand this way since he will be much less likely to 3-bet a hand that you beat with the 3rd player in the pot as well, and he's already passive to begin with.

Your play is ok, certainly very passive and safe against a passive opponent who is showing strength. When your opponent bets the river into 2 players again, your hand is worth a crying call at best, but I couldn't fold either after showing so little strength.

-Eric

[/ QUOTE ]

Well from what I remember while playing this hand, the guy was pretty passive, so to me, his 3bet was a pretty strong move. I figured AA-QQ, AK, AQs. Id seen him cold call JJ before, so Id discount JJ-TT, maybe AQs as well (dunno about AQs part though) Taking out JJ and TT its 12:12 Im ahead or behind. Adding in and discounting JJ and TT by 50 percent (may or may not be totally accurate) we are looking at 15:13.5. my favor (this is taking into account that we are not discoutning AQs and the offsuit AK hands...because obviously if u take out the offsuit AK hands that puts me even farther ahead of his range. And of course if u discount nothing, just making his range AA-TT, AK, AQs we get a lovely 18:15 my favor by a little). I didnt think I was ahead enough to c/r here. Please feel free to correct me if Im wrong. As far as playing this in my usual 6max, I usually always c/r here then sometimes capping the flop bet, sometimes just calling the down the flop 3bet to the river...depending on the opponent (usually capping an aggressive player.)

Also, assuming no improvement on the turn are u calling or folding if u do c/r and get 3bet on the flop (and does your answer change if its a heads up pot or not)

--Dustin

[Pharity]

Why not bet the flop? Are you guys sure he will bet with AK? What if he has 99? And if he has JJ - especially with a club - we want him to fold since he is getting the odds to draw. And of course we don't want him to check JJ.

I'd say its terrible if this flop get checked through.

[pokerOpus]

Why not c/r the flop? I think c/r lets you find out more about MP2's hand plus you arent in terrible shape since you have top pair and the backdoor flush draw.

Also makes the river decision easier if you get 3 bet after the c/r.

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
Also makes the river decision easier if you get 3 bet after the c/r.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is obviously true, but don't forget that this information has come at the cost of the big bet you are trying to save... in other words, if you just call, then you have a chance to only put in 1.5 BB postflop, but if you c/r and are 3-bet, then yes, the river decision is easier, but you've already put in 2.5 BB on the flop and turn anyways.

Just pointing out that this is really an incidental advantage to the c/r. The information isn't worth the price you are paying for it, so you still have to feel you are the favorite on the flop after he bets and like the way the hand plays out when you c/r for value, etc.

-Eric