Have I taken this folding thing too far? - Page 2

bigt439 · #1 12-12-2005, 01:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't think so, I think on this drawless flop you're usually hosed at the $30s after the 3-bet all-in.

[/ QUOTE ]

By what? I doubt you will, but don't list off hands that beat you, list off why he played them like that and how often you think a player would play them like that.

[/ QUOTE ]

when the small blind leads out into this tiny multiway pot on a board that could easily get checked around, it makes me suspect that he's trying to build a pot. would it seem worth it to him to bet a marginal hand into this 4-way 60-chip pot, trying to take it down? i don't think so, not most of the time. so when he bets i think he has at least a Jack the large majority of the time.
the MP guy calls and then the LP guy makes a small raise. the SB has to figure it's pretty likely that at least one of his opponents has a Jack. the reason i think you're beat most of the time when he 3-bets is that i think the average player at this level doesn't expect his opponent to be able to fold any sort of decent Jack here. if our villain in fact thinks this way, he's quite likely to 3-bet here with a hand that can beat TPTK because he figures to get called, and doesn't want to lose his action to any one of 12 turn scare cards. buuut i dunno if he goes ahead and pushes with a hand like QJ or JT as eagerly, cos if one of his opponents has a Jack, it doesn't figure to be smaller than J9 or so. then again he might have expected AJ & KJ to raise in LP cos he would often have raised there himself.

hmmm i'm talking myself into a call as I go. still, i do think that you'll often see a better hand here for the reasons I gave.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for a thoughtful well-written post. The difference between the two of us is not in how well we're analyzing the situation but the "read" we're assigning to the players in the hand. Since there isn't a specific read, the read that I have on the average $33er differs vastly from the read you have. I don't think many people at this level understand the concept of buliding a pot or think about how they're opponents are likely to react with given holdings. They think good hand = chips, and fail to analyze the situational factors. I like your thought process but think this hand is about 2 buy-ins too lows to be using it. Hell, I have a difficult time folding this in the $109's without a read. Remember, we make money of donks, and lots of 'em.

schwza · #2 12-12-2005, 02:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for a thoughtful well-written post. The difference between the two of us is not in how well we're analyzing the situation but the "read" we're assigning to the players in the hand. Since there isn't a specific read, the read that I have on the average $33er differs vastly from the read you have. I don't think many people at this level understand the concept of buliding a pot or think about how they're opponents are likely to react with given holdings. They think good hand = chips, and fail to analyze the situational factors. I like your thought process but think this hand is about 2 buy-ins too lows to be using it. Hell, I have a difficult time folding this in the $109's without a read. Remember, we make money of donks, and lots of 'em.

[/ QUOTE ]

also a nice post. i think there are just too many crappy Jx hands that villain can have and overplay here. this is about the quality of thinking that i generally assume my opponents are doing: i have top pair - uhhhhhh, bet. oh he raised. he doesn't have anything. i'm all-in.

that's at least the thought process of my fishy roommates when they play.

gildwulf · #3 12-12-2005, 06:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't think so, I think on this drawless flop you're usually hosed at the $30s after the 3-bet all-in.

[/ QUOTE ]

By what? I doubt you will, but don't list off hands that beat you, list off why he played them like that and how often you think a player would play them like that.

[/ QUOTE ]

when the small blind leads out into this tiny multiway pot on a board that could easily get checked around, it makes me suspect that he's trying to build a pot. would it seem worth it to him to bet a marginal hand into this 4-way 60-chip pot, trying to take it down? i don't think so, not most of the time. so when he bets i think he has at least a Jack the large majority of the time.
the MP guy calls and then the LP guy makes a small raise. the SB has to figure it's pretty likely that at least one of his opponents has a Jack. the reason i think you're beat most of the time when he 3-bets is that i think the average player at this level doesn't expect his opponent to be able to fold any sort of decent Jack here. if our villain in fact thinks this way, he's quite likely to 3-bet here with a hand that can beat TPTK because he figures to get called, and doesn't want to lose his action to any one of 12 turn scare cards. buuut i dunno if he goes ahead and pushes with a hand like QJ or JT as eagerly, cos if one of his opponents has a Jack, it doesn't figure to be smaller than J9 or so. then again he might have expected AJ & KJ to raise in LP cos he would often have raised there himself.

hmmm i'm talking myself into a call as I go. still, i do think that you'll often see a better hand here for the reasons I gave.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ilya, this is a great post but...honestly, you are giving the thought process of an unknown player at the 30s too much credit.

bigt439 · #4 12-12-2005, 01:14 AM

I play the hand like you did, but I call on the end. I think he has a worse J a lot. He wouldn't play a set that fast in the 800 chippers, and the same is usually true of two pair... he would however play JT that fast...

jeffraider · #5 12-12-2005, 05:55 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I play the hand like you did, but I call on the end. I think he has a worse J a lot. He wouldn't play a set that fast in the 800 chippers, and the same is usually true of two pair... he would however play JT that fast...

[/ QUOTE ]

Seconded!

GtrHtr · #6 12-12-2005, 01:35 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (7 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Hero (t775)
SB (t785)
BB (t1970)
UTG (t775)
MP1 (t1395)
MP2 (t1835)
CO (t465)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP1 calls t15, 2 folds, Hero calls t15, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t60) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB bets t45, BB folds, MP1 calls t45, Hero raises to t125, SB raises to t770 (All-In), MP1 folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: t1000

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice laydown Scuba. I would've donked this up. Why is it I feel I'm moving further and further from solid post flop play?

On a positive note, something I'm trying to get better at, villains hand pf, any 2, post flop, duh, set or 2 pair.

Scuba Chuck · #7 12-12-2005, 01:40 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Nice laydown Scuba.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, it helps that I have this huge aversion to AJ. LOL

gildwulf · #8 12-12-2005, 02:05 AM

I think this is a very bad fold, especially at the 30s where JT, QJ and KJ push on this flop. Against a hand range of JJ, 66, 22, KJs, QJs, JTs, KJo, QJo, and JTo you are a 2-1 favorite. If you add in J2s, J2o, J6s, J6o it's a coinflip in your favor; if you add in 62s and 62o he is a 55/45 favorite. I think against his range with no reads you should definitely call.

gildwulf · #9 12-12-2005, 02:11 AM

Also, it is rare sets are played that fast, especially the overbet all-in.

psyduck · #10 12-12-2005, 01:45 AM

Um, this is a bad fold. Villain has a worse J here a very large % of the time.

Think about this, if he had a monster on this RAGGGGY board, why would he lead? I would be much more happy with folding if he had checkraised you.

I think this is a HORRIBLE fold. People are giving away their money during the early levels, and you should be making these calls with TPTK all day on such a nice flop.