JJ - turn decision

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]


According to his stats, if he checkraises me I am BEHIND 80% of the time

If that is the case, why should I be confortable about putting in an additional 2BB after he raises me?


[/ QUOTE ]

The stupid answer to this is that you'd be getting 8.5:2 odds, so being ahead 20% is plenty [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Guy.

[MAxx]

Posting BLind.

I dont like it. I think you should bet and calldown.

The board is too drawsy to give out freebies, and your hand is pretty vulnerable. If the board was like AAxx not draws, I could see your turn play if you were holding KK.

If you were up a more predicatble and passive type, I'd say bet fold turn.

[goofball]

I agree with most people, you should feel comfortable betting the turn because you should feel comfortable calling down a checkraise.

[TJD]

I have some further observations and replies that may aid the discussion and clear up some questions.

The "program" that gives me 20% is just a program I have written that analyses players actions and exports the results to the notes file on Empire. However that 20% is of ALL turn raises not specifically check-raises. Since raises with position may be for free showdowns, it is likely that this player CR with < TP less than 20%

I do not believe that he has 6 over card outs since he would have raised preflop with AQ.

I am pretty positive that he will bet the river VERY often if I check the turn.

I do not believe he will fold if he has a pair of any rank.

If I bet and he folds I will be disappointed since I think that the fold will be with 3 outs and in this small pot, I will earn more by inducing a bluff.

If I bet and he calls, this will probably be with a PP or he has hit a pair < K in which case, my bet is a good idea.

If I bet and he raises, I will probably be behind > 80% (explained above) and IF I am behind, I will have 2 outs, whereas if HE is behind he will likely have somewhere between 8 and 14 outs, so despite the effective odds seeming to be OK to call down, it would in fact be -EV so the potential horrible fold may be the best decision.

If I check and he was going to fold, he will bet the river often enough for me to recover the loss since he only has 3 outs.

If I check and he was going to call, I have cost myself money.

If I check and he was going to raise, I get a free card to try and improve if behind. If I was ahead and I check he will bluff the river a lot of the time allowing me to charge him to draw out on the river instead of the turn [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Do all these balance out to a check or does the balance point certainly to a bet? I am not sure, which is why I posted the hand? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

If I have misanalysed this, I would appreciate your comments since this area of play is very important.

Thanks all

T

[TJD]

Results:-

Villain had Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and MHIG

T

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]

If I bet and he raises, I will probably be behind > 80% (explained above) and IF I am behind, I will have 2 outs, whereas if HE is behind he will likely have somewhere between 8 and 14 outs, so despite the effective odds seeming to be OK to call down, it would in fact be -EV so the potential horrible fold may be the best decision.


[/ QUOTE ]

A quick thought. Assuming that when he check-raises you are ahead 20% of the time, let's give him an average of 10 outs when you're ahead, and you 2 outs when behind. The ways you can win are

- you are ahead on the turn (20%) and he misses his 10 outs (77%): 16%

- he is ahead on the turn (80%) and you draw out (4.5%): 3.6%

making just about 20%. So the suckout possibilities cancel out, more or less.

Okay so here are some less quick thoughts. Assuming the calldown of his check-raise is EV 0, which I think it probably is, just about, we can give you an easier line to analyse which is folding if he raises.

Assuming he has an average of 3 outs with the hands he'd call or fold, here are the EV calculations.

Betting the turn

You bet and he folds: you get the pot of 4.5BB

You bet and he calls: he will call one more on the river and will check-raise you if he improves. Assume pessimistically that you always call, but that he only has three outs to improve. So 14/15 you win 6.5BB, while 1/15 you lose 3BB. Overall EV is 6BB.

You bet and he check-raises. You fold, so you lose 1BB.

Checking the turn

If he had a hand he would have folded, he bets the river, but he's sucked out on you 1/15. So 14/15 you win 5.5BB, while 1/15 you lose 1BB: overall EV 5.06BB

If he had a hand he would have called: again he bets the river and again he's sucked out 1/15, so the EV is 5.06BB.

If he had a hand he would have check-raised: he bets the river and you call, winning 20%. So 80% of the time you lose 1BB and 20% you win 5.5BB, for overall EV of 0.3BB.

So you gain 0.5BB vs his folding hands, lose 1BB vs his calling hands, and gain 1.3BB vs his check-raising hands.

So the question is how much more likely is he to have a C/R hand than a calling or folding hand?

Guy.