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#1
09-15-2005, 11:20 PM
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Re: He is pushing any two or?
hey man I am not trying to scam anybody here (big lewboski quote
 )I didn't try to trick anybody... [ QUOTE ] A.villain knows when it's correct to push any two. B.the situation at hand warrants an any two push. C.villain pushes. [/ QUOTE ] Yes this is exactly what I have described. I think P(AK)> P(97) for the reasons I stated in the above two posts... 
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#2
09-15-2005, 11:31 PM
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Re: He is pushing any two or?
[ QUOTE ]
hey man I am not trying to scam anybody here (big lewboski quote )I didn't try to trick anybody... [ QUOTE ] A.villain knows when it's correct to push any two. B.the situation at hand warrants an any two push. C.villain pushes. [/ QUOTE ] Yes this is exactly what I have described. I think P(AK)> P(97) for the reasons I stated in the above two posts... [/ QUOTE ] That is an impossibility with the assumptions you make. You have to change your assumptions to be able to come to that conclusion.
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#3
09-16-2005, 08:37 AM
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Re: He is pushing any two or?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] A.villain knows when it's correct to push any two. B.the situation at hand warrants an any two push. C.villain pushes. [/ QUOTE ] Yes this is exactly what I have described. I think P(AK)> P(97) for the reasons I stated in the above two posts... [/ QUOTE ] Well, if that's the case, then either villain is NOT pushing any 2, or your deck contains more As and Ks than 9s and 7s. He's either pushing ANY 2 or not. If he really is pushing any 2, then him having 23 is just as likely as 97 is just as likely as AK is just as likely as any non-pocket pair hand.
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#4
09-15-2005, 10:52 PM
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Re: He is pushing any two or?
[ QUOTE ]
Here is a question that I had been thinking about for awhile. I think I know the answer. Let's see what you guys think... Bubble time. You are in big blind, small blind is a player who is definetely known to be a player that recognizes the situations that requires pushing with any two. And currently he is in a position that clearly states that he should push with any two. Two folds and no doubt he pushes. Which is correct? a) Prob(he has AK) = Prob(he has 97) a) Prob(he has AK) < Prob(he has 97) a) Prob(he has AK) > Prob(he has 97) and why? Cem [/ QUOTE ] Well, this probability actually depends somewhat on what your cards are... Are you holding an A,K,9 or 7?? Let's pretend for a minute that your cards don't matter. What's the probability that he gets dealt AKo or AKs? Well, there's 4 ways to pick a K and 4 ways to pick an A, so that's 16 possible ways to pick AK out of 52C2 ways to choose any 2 cards. That's 16/1326. Now, what's the probability of getting deals 97o or 97s? Well, let's see... there's 4 ways to pick a 9 and... I'll just skip to the answer. It's also 16/1326. That's also the probability that someone gets dealt 23o or 23s. So, the answer is a). I don't really see how this relates to STTs. Perhaps it should be in the Probability forum. I don't really think that the probabilities do you much good. You'd probably be better off asking someone what you should be calling with when you know the SB is pushing any 2 into you.
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#5
09-15-2005, 11:07 PM
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Re: He is pushing any two or?
I posted this here because I think this is relevant to the basic assumption we make about hand ranges while using ICM in bubble time.
For example we assume that a pusher's range is 99+,AQ+. This means we assume that pushing probability for these hands is 1 and 0 for all the other holdings. However, since our assumption is never perfect, the prob of seeing AA is higher than 99. And the probability of this guy pushing with 66 is not 0. You might think one offsets the other but with extreme hand assumptions like pushing with any two (or pushing with 80%) it doesn't. We use a discrete proabbaility function. If he has a hand in this range he is pushing 100% of the time, if not he is folding 100%. But in reality the probability function is a continous decreasing one. I am not sure if this has a practical value for ICM calculations but I feel like it might, particularly with extreme range assumptions about your opponents...
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#6
09-15-2005, 11:08 PM
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Re: He is pushing any two or?
I think (c). Since he is in the small blind he has the option of waiting two more hands to try to get something better than a random middle-middle. Odds are that one of the next two hands will be better (higher).
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#7
09-15-2005, 11:48 PM
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Re: He is pushing any two or?
The probability of being dealt AKo is the same as the probability of being dealt 97o, unless you hold an A/K/9/7. If he's truly pushing 100% of hands, the chances of it being AKo are exactly the same as it being 97o.
Any deviation from that is because the initial assumption, that he will push with 100% of hands, is incorrect.
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#8
09-16-2005, 04:17 AM
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Re: He is pushing any two or?
[ QUOTE ]
Any deviation from that is because the initial assumption, that he will push with 100% of hands, is incorrect. [/ QUOTE ] I didn't state that he is pushing with any two 100%, I just gave a strong read about the villian. Can you ever be sure that villian is pushing with any two? Theoratically, if he is pushing 100% of his hands than the probability is equal. But in a real SNG, can you ever be sure of this? Even the villian is good, even when pushing with any two is +EV for him, you still should not assume that his range is any two cards. What I believe is, when you assume that your opponent is pushing with any two (even with good reasons, based on very solid reads), probability of seeing AK is higher than seeing 97. Because there could be a lot of different reasons that he is not pushing with bad cards. "he is pushing with any two here" is the most extreme assumption that you can make about his hand range. if you are calling a push only based on this assumption then you are more likely to be making a mistake than making a correct call. well anyway maybe I am just talking nonsense thanks for all the responses... Cem
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#9
09-16-2005, 10:03 AM
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Re: He is pushing any two or?
the initial assumption wasn't that he would push 100% of hands
the initial assumption was that it is correct to push 100% and that villian KNOWS it's correct we all do things that we know aren't correct at times, and villian is more likely to do an incorrect fold with 97 than with ak
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#10
09-16-2005, 10:08 AM
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Re: He is pushing any two or?
[ QUOTE ]
the initial assumption wasn't that he would push 100% of hands the initial assumption was that it is correct to push 100% and that villian KNOWS it's correct we all do things that we know aren't correct at times, and villian is more likely to do an incorrect fold with 97 than with ak [/ QUOTE ] Well, of course if someone is going to play less than 100% of hands, they'd be rock stupid to play the worse hands and fold the better ones. He's either playing any 2 or he's not. If he IS playing any 2, then AK is just as likely as 97 or 23. If he's NOT playing any 2, then out of any 2 hands that aren't pocket pairs, the better one is more likely. Can the OP please clarify the assumptions???
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