<5 BBs in SB and uber LAG villian

[tigerite]

How did you get that value? Using SNGPT/SNA (whatever you call it) even putting villan on 'Maniac' (which is, by the way, only top 22%!) it's only +0.9%. It gets worse from there.

[yabastid]

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Do we? Fast forward to the next hand and UTG is in the BB, with 1010 after posting, and we have ~635. More than enough to get him to fold. We are then about equal with him, and he has to go through SB next hand when we're UTG. He also has the worst position on the table on the bubble - sitting to the right of the big stack.

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Yea, but based on his read, the BB, who is SB next hand and acting after us again, will probably call then too, and I would rather push Q9 just into him now than a random hand next time through 2 people.

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That is exactly what I was thinking before I pushed.

[45suited]

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Do we? Fast forward to the next hand and UTG is in the BB, with 1010 after posting, and we have ~635. More than enough to get him to fold.

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You raise a good point, as always, but you still have the supposedly super loose bigger stack in the SB to go through when you push. Not to mention the fact that the bigstack has to oblige us and fold the next hand as well. In this case, we have only ONE player to worry about and we have an above average hand.

[tigerite]

That's a good point, but maybe he'll have cooled off since then, or feel uneasy about pushing into the 1010 stack. Meh, I dunno, if he's really calling any two this is quite a bit -$EV, but I see what you're saying, we might not get a less -$EV opportunity before it's too late.

It's an interesting one.

[FlyWf]

You might get the BB to fold, but the big stack? If he's calling on this hand 99% of the time why wouldn't he call next hand?
And with 4 BB you're pricing the BB into calling with a pretty wide range.

[ZeroPointMachine]

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Have you ICM'd it? I stated specifically, with his read that the BB will call with 90%+ of hands. Even with 60%+ it's -0.3% $EV.

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Hey, Tiger,

I did and EV was +1.4%. Pretty close. So I am confused here. I don't know what to wait for if villian is seemingly going to play every hand. Against him I have no FE and that's regardless of position. SO, if I wait another 2 hands I have to hope that I get something better than Q9o and that he will be the only one to call. In three hands I'm back in the blinds and if there's a raise do I defend my BB with any random 2?

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Okay, somebody explain why these ICM numbers are so far apart. I'm at work and can't run it. I'm guessing that this is an auto push and that +1.4% is correct.

[tigerite]

I believe it's because I have the discount for SB/BB equity modelling on. I took that off, and it's now a +0.2% $EV push, if he's calling top 60%.

[yabastid]

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How did you get that value? Using SNGPT/SNA (whatever you call it) even putting villan on 'Maniac' (which is, by the way, only top 22%!) it's only +0.9%. It gets worse from there .

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I think it gets better from there if it really is any 2.

I made him a maniac and got 1.4%- dunno. Anyway, I really think I want him calling here. I don't know what other chance I'm gonna have to double through to have any shot at this thing. I think if my read is correct that he's calling ANY 2 then, not only is this a push, but I push and hope he calls.

[tigerite]

It doesn't, because it's the bubble. Try putting 100% or * on SGA and you'll see what I mean. Yeah, Maniac without the Equity for SB/BB gives 1.4% but that's only 22%, he's going to call far more than that, according to your description.

[adanthar]

The downside of having an ICM calc is that people get too reliant on it and stop thinking.

Just look at this situation on its face - of course it's a fold. You don't even need to glance at the calculator for that if he's push/calling any two; don't you want him to get into it with the big stack next hand?