AA flopped set...when to let it go?

[bozlax]

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I would call the river

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At worst, CO is probably betting the flop with a made flush or the Kd. If you're already against the made flush, then you need to make your boat or quads. On the turn, you have 10 outs to the nuts (3 eights, 3 fours, 3 jacks, 1 ace), so you're getting 3.6:1. Hence, easy turn call. Even tho the pot is big on the river, you can almost be assured that CO has his flush, with his constant aggression, unless you have some read that he is some uber-donk, so easy fold.

[gharp]

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I would call the river

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(glad to see I'm not the only one...)

[midwestkc]

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All I have to add is that the subject of this thread made me cry a little.

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made you cry? Try playing the hand!

[deception5]

Do we have any reads on this guy btw? Only hands I can put him on here are:

A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

These would too likely have been capped preflop:
K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I guess since the pot is so large on the river (15BB) you can call hoping for 88, but only if you think CO is very aggressive.

On the river is your hand good one out of 7.5 times to make going for the split worthwhile? Very doubtful.

4 people saw the diamond-monotone flop, so the likelyhood that someone among them had a diamond is good. That person is probably the one who's betting on the river.

It seems incorrect to be thinking about your hand being good 1 in 15 times on the river. At best you split.

[deception5]

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On the river is your hand good one out of 7.5 times to make going for the split worthwhile? Very doubtful.


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If that is the range of hands he would play this way then yes... so it boils down to his aggression.

[ QUOTE ]
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On the river is your hand good one out of 7.5 times to make going for the split worthwhile? Very doubtful.


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If that is the range of hands he would play this way then yes... so it boils down to his aggression.

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I agree