Bad day, questionable decisions, sorry this is long

[William]

Hi Pitcher,

I agree with you that you are running out of time, but you are choosing a situation where you not only know you have a bad hand, you also know you are against a better one. you can still afford to see at least 3 flops before you are comitted and if you are able to move all-in as the first man, it will make a big difference. I think it is Slansky who said that as long as you have chips in front of you, you must wait(and hope) for a good hand. I know one asks itself if K-high is enough to get lucky, but in my opinion, it is not. Not as a caller.
That being said, you are there where it is a crapshot for you, so even if I would have waited, playing as you did is certainly arguable.

Take care,
William

[Pitcher]

Hi William,

I will carefully consider what you say about this one, and I would like some other opinions. Here is why. I don't doubt your general advice. What I want to know is something about the mathematics. I basically am looking at 3-5 more hands. What is the probability of getting better than Kx during that time? Further, if the idea is to lead and I think it is, what is the chance of getting a reasonable all in hand with the SB or Button? Only two more hands. I really think that should play heavilly in the decision. I think if I had 5-6 hands left for sure, I would pass on Kx, but with just a couple, now it is a different story.
Anyway, thanks again and I look forward to any replies to this on the math

Pitcher

[ohkanada]

1) Probably close. Based on calling him tight a fold is probably best. With blinds of 50-100 you can't wait forever. You would rather have a loose raiser.

2) Re-stealing with K8 when you only have 500 more than the raise is bad. He isn't folding and likely has a better hand. A better choice if you feel you must play the hand is to call and then bet out all-in on all flops.

3) Either raise all-in or just call.

4) Why are you mini-raising in NL? Make it 90 or 100 to go pre-flop. When he raises on the flop does he need a better Queen to do it or would he do it with a flush draw?

Ken Poklitar

[Bluff1]

Picter if you count any pair and any ace, KJ, Kq, its going to be pretty close to 1.2-1 that you will get anyone one of those hands in the next 3 hands. In 5 hands your a little more than even money to get one of those hands .74-1. As for the small blind and the button I didn't work it out but I would guess you’re about 2-1 to get one of those hands. These are all approximate numbers that I worked out on the fly this morning but should be very close to the actually number.

[Bluff1]

One more thing about hand numer 1. I checked my records for the past year and a half and it seems, as far as my records show, William is right. You would be better of mucking the tt in that situation and looking back I would probably muck jj too. Thanks William for helping me plug yet another leak.

[LetsRock]

FWIW, I agree with you on the first hand. Getting raised into a coin toss from a tight player is not the best move. I'd have probably called the raise and fold to any overcards on the flop (unless I spike my T). Move all in on flop with no overcards or a T on the flop (assuming no AAT, KKT, JJT or even 99T type of flop).

Hand 2 - get out, not even close to a good hand.

Hand 3 - limp or all-in. Vs. a better player your move may have worked but you're not going to move a bad player off of anything that looks playable.

[itsmarty]

[ QUOTE ]
I basically am looking at 3-5 more hands. What is the probability of getting better than Kx during that time?

[/ QUOTE ]

Since the Button raised, you don't necessarily care about probability of a better hand than Kx coming along in time, you just want a better hand relative to his. You want the probability that one of your hands will be better than one of his at a time when he's in the blind and hasn't voluntarily contributed to the pot.

Martin

[Pitcher]

Thanks Bluff1 and Itsmarty

Bluff, I appreciate you working out the math. Also, Itsmarty makes a good point about having a relatively stronger hand. I now understand the advice much better. Hopefully, I will plug that leak in my game. I have the tools to do it.

Pitcher