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#11
10-29-2005, 11:14 PM
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Re: A really tough sat decision (for me anyways)
I think the key is this is a TURBO Super Sat. When is the next blind jump?
Where are the other 7-8 Smaller stacks in relation to the button on there tables? Clayton is the button here and will have 7 more hands to see before he HAS to make a move and even then he can wait it out. I like to see the other tables and the smaller stacks relationship to the blinds. Are there 5 other stacks that are in MORE danger than you of going out? I think having the button makes this a fold. Having 8 smaller stacks than you with 5 needing to bust makes this a fold. Hotrod 
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#12
10-29-2005, 11:18 PM
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Re: A really tough sat decision (for me anyways)
Thank you hotrod for the counter argument that was the main logic behind the angel on my left shoulder.
Thing is, I had zero folding equity after this push. The large stacks seriously were going to call with any two. ie no first in vigourish concept. There was about elevnty hundred stacks that were around 22k. Winning this hand would have put me in 4th place and a lock for the tourney dollars. Yes, I have the button, but I have to move within the next amount of hands. It was going to get shorthanded before fullhanded, so I was looking at 4-5 hands after this, not 7. (because it's breaking from 27 to 18, so it's gonna be three SH tables) Problem is the villain's unknown, so I have no idea what his opening standards were. I put myself as a favorite over his range easily. So, I told myself a coinflip now was likely better than a dog 4 hands later. I didn't think I could steal the blinds after this.
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#13
10-29-2005, 11:20 PM
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Re: A really tough sat decision (for me anyways)
[ QUOTE ]
I think the key is this is a TURBO Super Sat. When is the next blind jump? [/ QUOTE ] soon enough that my entire stack would get blinded off in one BB/SB combo
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#14
10-29-2005, 11:22 PM
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Re: A really tough sat decision (for me anyways)
Ack, I wasn't looking at it right. With the button I'm really not sure. I bet someone could come up with the math given all of the information but I'm not sure if its as clear a fold as some are making it sound. I may be wrong.
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#18
10-29-2005, 11:53 PM
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Re: A really tough sat decision (for me anyways)
Just a note.
When I play these types of sats, as you get this close to the $$$, always have the other tables open, so you know exactly where the shorter stacks and medium stacks are in relation to the button. Often the blinds are so large at this point that even the guy in 10th place can't live through the SB and BB, let alone the shortys, so having the button and enough to pay the antes for an orbit can be enough to get a seat. Regards, Woodguy
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