Curtains: flop decision

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Check. A bet is likely enough to take it down, but getting check-raised would be bad against the only bigger stack here and the chances of hitting the nuts up against the big stack is inviting. Anyway, free card and you have a draw.

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Can someone explain to me why getting check/raised is bad when you have the best hand?

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Its part of the fear people have of putting their chips in "on a draw", even if that draw is ahead.

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His draw is not ahead unless opponent is on 99 or worse, though.

[rvg72]

Good hand - looking forward to this discussion. What are your reads on the BB? I think this makes a big difference here.

Given his call (and especially given his stack size) I'd probably check here and hope a club hits on the turn. Pushing seems way too risky against this stack size since his call could easily mean an overpair which he'd call. A small to mid sized bet would be check raised all-in by a lot of players.

If a club hits you should be able to take a large amount of chips from him because he's likely putting in a big bet on the turn.

Cut his stack in half and I'd play differently but in this case I check and take the free card.

rvg

[microbet]

If Curtains pushed here, he's doctoring these hand histories and this is all a big mis-information campaign.

[downtown]

I would bet/3-bet. t400-600 sounds good, depending on how often I c-bet/don't c-bet, bet when there's a flush draw out, etc.

Edit: I like to get my money into the pot when I'm ahead, and it looks like we're way ahead here (assuming A & T are clean outs.) Why you would not bet here is beyond me.

[Dr_Jeckyl_00]

check and take a free card

Continuation bet 400, which I'd likely do if I don't have a hand this good. I'd be prepared to go to the felt for this one. If check raised on the flop, I'd move in. We have at least 9 outs, but more likely 12 or 15 outs.

[ravensfan]

My understanding is this: we probably have 12 outs if c/r'ed. Ie. Either A8/AJ+, or a pp > 99. If we're not c/r'ed we take the pot. But if so, we are probably -EV to $0 EVish when including c/r bluffs.

Thing is since it's the other large stack, sure we can go all-in for a draw, but if we miss we bust out, and if we don't play it, we'll still be in a very comfortable position.

Besides, I think we're losing EV by forcing him out of hand since villian has no reason to put us on either a flush draw or 10TK and may very well bet out on one/call a small bet.

Besides, if we miss next round, we're still getting good pot/implied odds to call a $400 bet.

[The Yugoslavian]

micro,

What is wrong with a push here? With 600 already in the middle I'd say it's +EV.

I'm not saying it's the best option....but those chips have significant value already even before any more get in there. I do rather like the idea of letting the villian stab at it and then raising allin, however. And if you get a free card, that also seems pretty good.

Yugoslav

[curtains]

thinking about this hand as "being ahead" is kind of silly. Getting allin on the flop is a disaster for us. You are usually at best close to a coinflip against any logical hand they may have and you are 2nd chipleader by a longshot.

Also checking is +EV too, because you can hit a huge hand and win a lot of chips, you may make a continuation bet on the turn to win the pot and etc etc. Sometimes you will end up losing a small pot and those are the breaks, but it avoids the unpleasantness of being checkraised allin. Im still a signifigant favorite to win the pot even after checking the flop, and sometimes may win a huge hand in a situation where my opponent has close to zero outs, if a club were to fall.

Another note...if they bet on the turn and I have missed, a tricky play is to call, with the intention of bluffing on the river if you miss again. If the opponent checks the river in this scenario they are almost surely folding to a large river bet. If they follow through and bet the river, then you just fold.

[microbet]

I was gonna answer, but got waylaid and Curtains did a 10x better job than I could have.

I'm so happy having this big stack at this point there's no way I'm putting in all my chips, having to pray for a club. I'd much rather make semi-bluffs at this stage against one of the other stacks, and it's not like the free card has no value. You certainly have a better draw.