67s

Fold equity is simply the size of the existing pot multiplied by your guess of the probability he'll fold.

So in this case there's $40 in the pot, say you think he folds 50% of his hands if you raise, your fold equity is $20.

Obviously the % of the time he calls, your hand equity is then your pot equity (~50% x pot in this case)

[FreakDaddy]

I understand all this of course and I've thought a lot about pushing draws with overs or pushing draws with a piece of the flop. Having a piece is the best scenario as we're typically more than 50% equity on the flop. Here's the thing though, in THIS particualr scenario, if we push and hero has overs he's folding. If villian has over pair like QQ-AA then X% of the time he'll fold his hand which is +EV for us, but what about the times he has over cards and will call the mini-raise, isn't this a mistake? Isn't that what we want to do in poker, make the other guy make a mistake.

I completely understand the book thinking about this hand and being the aggressor, I'm just curious if there is an even better way to take advantage of these situations, and I think the mini-raise line is best. He's still folding X% of the time AND it leaves the possibility open for villian to make a mistake. If he pushes, we're still a favorite and we'll call (in this particualr scenario). Perhaps I'm wrong, but I think this is the way to maximize our vaule in the hand. Let me know what ya think.

I'm more inclined to push say AKs in this scenario then having a piece of this flop since villian may have overs, and may still call.

[kongo_totte]

[ QUOTE ]
if we push and hero has overs he's folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

Since no other read is given, I assumed villian would fold missed overs pretty quickly to a min.raise.

I think what we gain the few times villian is a total donk and will call with missed overs is not compensated for what we lose in folding equity. Also, say we min.raise, he calls, the turn is an A and he puts us all in. Yuck.

[RED FACE]

How deep do the stacks have to be to make this no longer a no-brainer-push? Sometimes you'll be up against a set and be a 7:3 dog or so. So when does pushing here become wrong?

[nietzreznor]

How do you think villain would play KK if you raise him? If you think your opponent is capable of folding in spots like these, then raise. And if he does push, call.

If not (if you think he 3 bets/pushes vast majority of the time) then just call.