Party 109 AK button/bubble hand

[citanul]

why do you say that the sb obviously isn't going to push you off your hand preflop? if that's you saying that you'd call a push, then i can't agree that you should limp instead of pushing. not saying pushing is necessarilly > limping in this post, but what i'm saying is that if you're going to call if the sb pushes, you shouldn't limp.

citanul

[Gramps]

[ QUOTE ]
Stacks:

UTG: 200
Button: 1820
SB: 6020
BB: 1960

blinds 200/400

utg folds, button has AKo.

[/ QUOTE ]

Soo....BB is calling a little less that 0.5% of the time with an Ace and King already accounted for. SB is a donk who calls "way too much."

Even if SB calls with top 1/4 of hands (sounds about right from description, you can adjust up or down), AKo is close to a 64% favorite. So...

74.5% (approx, of times BB has AA/KK SB may call too) of the time you push, SB and BB fold, button now has 2420, BB has 1560, UTG is all-in for 200 next hand. You've opened up a sizable chip-gap on BB for 2nd. Not worth it to push junk to gain that advantage, but it's nothing to be scoffed at.

25% of the time SB calls you, BB folds. Of these times, 64% of the time you win, have 4,040 chips, SB has 4,200, BB has 1,560, and UTG 200. 36% of the time SB calls, you lose, and you're out.

0.5% of the time SB folds, BB calls with AA/KK, and you're like 18% on average to win.

So...you get knocked out about 9.5% of the time. 74.5% of the time you gain a good chip advantage on 2nd place (and a tad closer to first). 16% of the time you become co-chipleader. Sounds like a pretty good deal where you increase your expected equity from the rise in 2nds/1sts to more than compensate for the 2% expected equity loss from the increase in 4th places.

If you fold AKo on the button, a decent % of the time UTG will survive his blinds, pretty much forcing the button to fold his blinds (do you want to push a good-not-great hand from the SB and the BB donk with his calling standards and a shorter stack at the table?). So...there's also some risk in taking the "safe route" where you're going to have to continue playing safe for a couple of orbits, while you continue to get blinded down.

Seems like a pretty easy push, even if BB was calling a wider range.

[Newt_Buggs]

[ QUOTE ]
why do you say that the sb obviously isn't going to push you off your hand preflop? if that's you saying that you'd call a push, then i can't agree that you should limp instead of pushing. not saying pushing is necessarilly > limping in this post, but what i'm saying is that if you're going to call if the sb pushes, you shouldn't limp.

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
SB is a donkey, he's calling WAY too much. He's not interested in silly things like raping the bubble, just in continuing to donk his way through the tournament.

[/ QUOTE ]
based on your description it sounds like the SB is loose passive and isn't clever enough to try to push you off of your limp. With this type of player, I think that there are many hands that he would call your all in with but merely complete if you limp, but I guess that this depends on how big of a donkey he really is. Ex: how do you think he will play 44? If you push I'm guessing that hes calling, but I would be surprised to see him push this if you limp in.


well, gramps just made a really good argument for pushing after I wrote this, oh well. Its hard to quanitfy limping in the same way to see if it could be as +EV.

[Nick B.]

Eh, I think I would just push.

[Newt_Buggs]

[ QUOTE ]
Eh, I think I would just push.

[/ QUOTE ]
thats what I'm starting to lean towards as well. This has been an interesting thread though. It would be great to see more strategy discussions and hand postings from the top players on this forum like this one.

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Eh, I think I would just push.

[/ QUOTE ]
thats what I'm starting to lean towards as well. This has been an interesting thread though. It would be great to see more strategy discussions and hand postings from the top players on this forum like this one.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that I lean towards pushing as well, but I think that arguments can be made for waiting for the short guy to fold, and minimizing your variance. It's just not how I would play poker.

I'm glad that at least one person found the hand interesting. I'm sure that the button, who wound up pushing his AK, and getting busted by A5 (which hit the wheel), probably didn't find it as interesting.

I don't konw if I'm counted as any of the top players on this forum, but a big problem for me is finding a hand or thing that *I* think is interesting, and usually I try to shoot for it to be sort of topical to the other threads of the day or week or whatever. Sadly the "I think is interesting" thing means that I can't pick up hands that probably would be interesting/beneficial to a lot of other players because well, I'm too lazy to just run an out and out strategy lecture of some type.

Early next week, look for me to make a post with some good PVSes, as that seems to have become a hot topic. Or hey, if there's some random play that people want to see examples of that I can muster up a bunch of, I'll post some of those too. Or something. Like, if someone wants to see me go for a limp reraise, not get the raise, and then play my AA or KK like a sissy, I've got a bunch of those. I dunno.

Would it make any difference in the original hand if you knew that the button player was playing fairly significantly out of their bankroll what you would suggest their play to be?

citanul

[Nick B.]

[ QUOTE ]

I don't konw if I'm counted as any of the top players on this forum, but a big problem for me is finding a hand or thing that *I* think is interesting, and usually I try to shoot for it to be sort of topical to the other threads of the day or week or whatever. Sadly the "I think is interesting" thing means that I can't pick up hands that probably would be interesting/beneficial to a lot of other players because well, I'm too lazy to just run an out and out strategy lecture of some type.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't ever find any interesting hands either, which is why I might just post and entire sng. Something that I find extremely simple, might be trouble for somebody else.

[citanul]

weren't you supposed to be posting like an entire sng a week or a day or something?

citanul

[Nick B.]

[ QUOTE ]
weren't you supposed to be posting like an entire sng a week or a day or something?

citanul

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I was going to, but nobody really responded to it and I went on the PPM cruise. I also went back to ring after the cruise. I also posted 1 this week, but nobody responded.

[Voltron87]

so i thought about this a little more, and I chose fold. I didn't do any math, but that's my play. I could be wrong, I"m not sure of this.