5 handed Q3s

[DeathDonkey]

Well lots of people want to bet the river but I think the check is good. He knows what you have and you said he's decent. I don't think he's going to satisfy his curiousity if he missed his draw. The turn is the interesting one to me but I would have just called too. I would have figured he will bet the river even if he misses so I still get the same value - of course I would have been wrong, but I would absolutely hate getting 3 bet and not getting to showdown with this hand.

-DeathDonkey

[Alobar]

[ QUOTE ]
Well lots of people want to bet the river but I think the check is good. He knows what you have and you said he's decent. I don't think he's going to satisfy his curiousity if he missed his draw. The turn is the interesting one to me but I would have just called too. I would have figured he will bet the river even if he misses so I still get the same value - of course I would have been wrong, but I would absolutely hate getting 3 bet and not getting to showdown with this hand.


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my thoughts exactly

[TStoneMBD]

here are some thoughts.

if you dont feel you can fold after he caps the flop its because you think hell be on a heart draw or have gotten crazy with a 6/PP some of the time. after the river comes and he checks it doesnt make any sense for him to have checked the river unless he was planning on checkraising you in which case you have an easy fold.

it looks more like he was on a draw and spiked a ten on the river and thought hed give you a chance to check your queen or bet your flush draw. he may have also given up with a 6/PP type hand.

therefore id shove some chips in the middle

SB's flop c/r is not a draw raise, it's a raise to drive people out. Maybe he has a 6, so the 3-bet is ok. But when he caps the flop and then leads the turn, yeesh. At that point player reads take over -- I mean SPECIFIC player reads, like will he cap here with less than TPGK? I guess that without a read I'd probably fold the turn. If I got to the river I'd probably check it through out of confusion as much as anything else, but it's close.

[Grisgra]

[ QUOTE ]
SB's flop c/r is not a draw raise, it's a raise to drive people out. Maybe he has a 6, so the 3-bet is ok. But when he caps the flop and then leads the turn, yeesh. At that point player reads take over -- I mean SPECIFIC player reads, like will he cap here with less than TPGK? I guess that without a read I'd probably fold the turn. If I got to the river I'd probably check it through out of confusion as much as anything else, but it's close.

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Excellent analysis.

[Lmn55d]

Hock, I kind of disagree with your claim that sb's checkraise is not a draw checkraise. This guy seems a little on the passive side so maybe you're right. But I think a lot of unknowns will raise a flush draw to improve their chances of winning the pot unimproved or to "clean up outs." It's not as though the flop was QQ6r. In that spot a checkraise would definitely be a hand protection checkraise.

I think you make some good points, but I don't think we should rule out a flush draw entirely.

[Victor]

bet the river and expect to be called with 77-99?

[MarkD]

[ QUOTE ]
SB's flop c/r is not a draw raise, it's a raise to drive people out. Maybe he has a 6, so the 3-bet is ok. But when he caps the flop and then leads the turn, yeesh. At that point player reads take over -- I mean SPECIFIC player reads, like will he cap here with less than TPGK? I guess that without a read I'd probably fold the turn. If I got to the river I'd probably check it through out of confusion as much as anything else, but it's close.

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For a lot of these reasons I think I would be folding the flop. I may have bet out here, but as the hand played out I have top pair no kicker against a hand that is at worst mid pair over card kicker (5 outs) and at best a queen that dominates me. It may also be a big draw like pair + flush draw.

I'm not sure that our flop equity justifies the amount of bets we will need to put into this pot to get to a showdown. I think I fold the flop. If there had not been a pre-flop raise, and the flop action was the same, I would definitely fold.

I agree that folding the flop here would be just fine -- maybe even the best play for exactly the reasons you mention -- but 3-betting isn't terrible.

[TStoneMBD]

im ok with calling the flop with your 3 outter and perhaps hell check a flush draw on the turn sometimes. however, i really dont think we can expect him to cap a flush draw out of position or a weaker hand that QQ all that often. i would have also folded the turn unless i had a reason not to.