K-10s in SB

[Barry]

Most likely you have the best hand here so I would bet right out on the flop and keep on betting until I got raised. I don't want to give the draws a free card. If someone has QJ, you'll hear about it on the turn. Then you can slow down or fold.

If you're afraid of QJ, why do you bet the turn? I'm a little puzzled; you start off passive, but turn aggressive on the turn. What were you trying to accomplish?

The river doesn't really change anything, so bet the river too.

Maybe I'm too aggressive but I always want others reacting to my bets, rather than the other way around.

[SoBeDude]

Notice that either way you are putting one bet in the pot, but betting is better since worse hands will call whereas when you check they will not bet.

I'm not saying you're wrong, but I think I look at it a bit differently (and maybe incorrectly).

If I can see the showdown for max 1 bet here, I'd rather do that than pay the same one bet and have exactly 0% chance of winning (due to my fold). So check-call ensures me a 1 bet max showdown. Betting out does not.

So even if the better doesn't have a 9 only 10% of the time, seeing the showdown for 1 bet is a very +EV play, right? or am I missing something?

Is this wrong thinking?

-Scott

[Homer]

I think your thinking is wrong because of this statement:

So check-call ensures me a 1 bet max showdown. Betting out does not.

Whether you bet out or check-call you are going to be putting a maximum of one bet into the pot. When you bet out and are raised, you have an easy fold. It seems that you feel compelled to get to showdown, regardless of the actions of your opponents. In my opinion, this mindset will lead to some weak-tight play (e.g. - "Let's just check-call our way home and see who won").

Look at it this way:

Situation 1 - No one has trip 9's

P1 - T6o
P2 - AdJd
P3 - A8o

If you bet you will get one call and probably two; one from P1 with top-pair weak-kicker (definite), and one from P3 with third-pair, top-kicker (possible).

If you check it is likely that neither of these hands will bet and the busted flush draw will not bluff, given that there are three opponents.

Thus, by betting, you force weaker hands that want to see showdown to call a bet, rather than allowing them to check it through.

Situation 2 - Someone has trip 9's

P1 - T6o
P2 - AdJd
P3 - A9o (I changed this one and left the others the same)

If you bet you will be called by P1, then P3 will raise. After this happens you have a clear fold. There is no way P3 will raise without having your hand beat.

If you check, P1 will check, P3 will bet and you will call.

Thus, regardless of whether you check or bet, you will be putting a single bet into the pot. You don't get to see showdown when you bet, but who cares? You know that you are beaten. And remember, we are betting so that when the actual situation is that presented in Situation 1, we make more money.
__________________________________________________ ___________

In summary, when someone has trip 9's you lose the same amount of money. When you bet you don't see showdown, but it doesn't matter since you know you lost. When someone doesn't have trip 9's, you make more by betting. Hence, betting is clearly better than checking.

-- Homer

[SoBeDude]

Are you saying there is exactly a 0% chance a raise on the river means anything other than trip 9's? really?

Last night, I had a hand where I had AQ raised preflop, 2 callers. flop Qxx rainbow. I bet, 2 callers. turn rag. I bet, 2 callers. River rag. I bet, I get raised! Other guy calls 2 cold!

So with a raiser and a caller,how can I call here? I'm beat for sure with TP/TK. So I folded to the two pair or set.

Guy who raised has Q3o for top pair, no kicker, other guy had second pair.

I'm not making this crap up [img]/forums/images/icons/frown.gif[/img]

So tell me again how the raise on the river is 100% trip 9's?

But I think you make a solid argument for betting os the ratio of times you get called with a worse hand and money made on the river bet, versus the times you get raised here. Perhaps the bet on the river is a +EV play for that reason.

(and the next time we play and the river comes runner-runner pair I'm raising your butt!!)

-Scott

[Homer]

Are you saying there is exactly a 0% chance a raise on the river means anything other than trip 9's? really?

Well, it could be a slowplayed straight or set (that's now a boat), but it's not likely to be anything worse than trip 9's.

I don't know of many players that have the balls to bluff raise here without having TPTK beaten. If it were heads-up it would be a different story, but there are four players in the pot here, which makes it less likely that someone would attempt a bluff.

So tell me again how the raise on the river is 100% trip 9's?

Okay, I understand that there are maniacs out there (and quite a few these days), so we must make exceptions against certain opponents who raise out of nowhere. Still, I believe in nearly all instances betting the river is the correct play.

-- Homer

[Bob T.]

I've read the thread, so take my comments in that light.

On the flop, you checked, because you said that if you bet, and got raised, you wouldn't know where you where. Did you consider betting, and three betting, or stop and go? If you check, and one of your opponent bets, and another raises, then where are you? If you were going to muck in this situation, then I think that your check was OK, otherwise, I would just go ahead and bet here.

River. I think that betting out has to be better, you can most likely muck to a raise, and even if your opponents have trips, they might not raise if you have played the hand strongly so far.

[SoBeDude]

Why does the raise have to represent either trip 9's or a bluff?

Why can't there be a situation where someone thinks his hand is best and is raising on what he thinks is a value bet? In my example, the guy (ok, a moron) thought his hand was best and raised the flop with this top pair.

-Scott

[cosmo kramer]

The more I thought about it, the more I thought I should have used the stop and go. And I should have bet the river.

[angry young man]

I had virtually this exact hand two nights ago (suits different and turn was a 2 but otherwise same hand). I bet the river into 2 opponents and was raised by the button who had K9 but I still like the river bet. So many people limp with weaker tens(TJ, TQ, T8, T7) and/or jacks that I feel I'll get paid off by the bad tens (and even eights) often enough to justify the raise I'll sometimes run into from the nine. Incidently I'm trying to force myself to sap more hands like this on the river and so far it's worked out well.

[JTG51]

Why does the raise have to represent either trip 9's or a bluff?

(Note, Homer is also saying it could be better than trip 9's.)

Because very, very few players will value raise one pair on a T9985 board after their opponent has bet the turn and river. That's a pretty scary board to anyone with one pair, especially a bad one pair. Heck, a lot of players probably wouldn't even raise trip 9's on that board.