QQ multiway with overcard on flop

[moot]

I kind of agree with Carmine. Though with a sizeable pot and a hand this good, I don't know that you can let it go without a least risking 2 small bets (raise on the flop). If they're weak you're likely to be able to make it to the end for only one more bet.

In my opinion, if bet into twice (especially if you raise the flop) calling down is a huge error. And I don't think you lose much by flat folding the flop (the 2 hearts on the board don't help).

[zuluking]

Math was never my strong suit but....

There are 5 other players with you on the flop. There are 32 cards left in the deck. You know that 2 of those cards are not aces. So 30 cards left, and counting the 5 players cards, 40 left. ASSUMING that none of the pre-flop folders had an ace (a wrong assumption but one I'll make in this case), then the odds that any one of those players has an ace is 13.3-1.

[easypete]

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Wow! That's aggressive. To aggressive IMO. With a bet and 3 calls and an ace on the board I would rather fold than raise.

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Thinking like that is weak/tight and will lose you money longterm.

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OK.... here's one... happened to me last night (while watching my adopted Falcons lose)...

I have QQ in MP1 (PP 3/6 full). 2 limpers.. I raise MP2 (TA-A) 3bets, the button caps. I call....

5 see flop of A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] I have no hearts. UTG bets, UTG+1 calls... I fold... MP2 raises... yada yada yada.

Why did I fold? Because capped pf w/ 5 players and an Ace on board. I make this fold all day long. I'm behind to andy Ace, KK and potentially doomed to a flush.

UTG wins the pot, showing JJ. MHWHBG.

In retrospect, I should have raised and seen what the rest of the field did. I would have if there wasn't a call from UTG+1 and the pf 3-bettor and capper left to act. I wasn't going to see the turn with the threat of the flop capping.

Oh well... I posted that just to illustrate that aces are not always out there, even with major pf action.

While my hand was a clear fold, I believe that this hand should have been played differently. I would have raised here for a free card on the turn to see the showdown cheap. Since you didn't and it was checked to you, I would have bet the turn. If you get any calls on the turn, check behind on the river.

[Nick Royale]

On the flop there are 47 unseen cards. 3 of these are aces. There are 5 players in the hand holding 10 cards. (47/3)/10= 1.6. My calculation says the odds are 1 to 0.6 that anyone holds an ace. And that's assuming the hands the limpers play are random.

[easypete]

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Math was never my strong suit but....

There are 5 other players with you on the flop. There are 32 cards left in the deck. You know that 2 of those cards are not aces. So 30 cards left, and counting the 5 players cards, 40 left. ASSUMING that none of the pre-flop folders had an ace (a wrong assumption but one I'll make in this case), then the odds that any one of those players has an ace is 13.3-1.

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Math isn't your strong suit. [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img]

After the flop, you know of 5 cards, leaving 47 cards. Let's make an assumption that your 4 opponents remaining after the bet by BB are part of the "any ace" crowd.

OK... 3 aces left in the deck.

That makes 3*44 = 132 combinations of starting hands w/ an Ace.

C(47,2) = 1081 starting hand combinations (total w/ 47 cards remaining).

132/1081 = 0.122 (% one player has it)

P(not) = 0.878 (% one player doesn't have it)
P(not)^4 = 0.594 (% 4 players don't have it)

You will be good 60% of the time here. And with no pf action, you can rule out a few of the A holdings, like AA, AK, AQ, and some AJ... so your % increases. Also, you can rule out some garbage aces if there are good players in. That also increases your chances.

[easypete]

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On the flop there are 47 unseen cards. 3 of these are aces. There are 5 players in the hand holding 10 cards. (47/3)/10= 1.6. My calculation says the odds are 1 to 0.6 that anyone holds an ace. And that's assuming the hands the limpers play are random.

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No.

[zuluking]

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Math isn't your strong suit. [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img]

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A product of Louisiana public education. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Nick Royale]

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Let's make an assumption that your 4 opponents remaining after the bet by BB are part of the "any ace" crowd.

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This is false. You have 5 opponents on the flop and should count all of them. Yes, the player who folds the flop won't hold an ace, but the likelyhood that one of the 4 players calling does hold an ace goes up as they call.

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You will be good 41% of the time here. And with no pf action, you can rule out a few of the A holdings, like AA, AK, AQ, and some AJ... so your % increases. Also, you can rule out some garbage aces if there are good players in. That also increases your chances.

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You should rather increase the chance that somebody holds an ace when playing microlimits. Many will call with any ace...

[Nick Royale]

Why?

[moot]

easypete, I think you played that hand perfectly. I think it's unfortunate that JJ had to win, because the next time you're in that situation you're more likely to lose some money.

Same thing happened to me pot. Huge pot, I have the straight, and it's multiway. A flush card comes in that also pairs the board and I bet, it gets raised, reraised, and then someone cold calls three bets. I fold. No flush, no boat. A pair takes it down.

Twilight zone. It hurt and for a long time I always wanted to believe my opponents just decided to raise me for the hell of it when they had bottom pair. They just don't do it that often, even at the low limits. And when you have multiple opponents the odds that all of them decided to go insane at the same time just isn't that high.

Just because 772 flops doesn't mean it's right to play your next 72off hand. Just because jacks won doesn't mean it's wrong to fold the next time.