Party 100+9 (whats your line on this tough draw)

[blockafor]

I'd push on the flop. If he has less than 2 pair, you're getting your money in as a favorite. If he has 2 pair or a set, I still think that pushing the turn looks enough like a draw that he's not going to fold enough to make the slight increase in FE outweigh your reduction of odds.

Also, there's a good chance he leads into the turn with a large bet, if not all-in, giving your push no FE.

[Lloyd]

Plus, if you just call the flop and he leads out on the turn with a pot size bet and you then push, he's getting huge odds to call. I don't see any folding equity at all. The pot would be around T1060 and you've only got T1395 left after the pre-flop raise and flop call. Chances are he'll just push on the turn putting you to the test.

And I'd prefer to isolate the MP player and get rid of the BB.

[A_PLUS]

[ QUOTE ]
Let me get this straight, you want to call then push the turn against a made hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you have TPTK, 2 pair, set, etc. Flop is 3 to a suit.

You overbet the pot on the flop, what do you think when someone calls vs pushes? Your right about the logic behind the push on any turn, but against certain opponents, I would make that play. What about the call, then take the free card on the turn? (this is assuming that he reads my call as "the new raise")

I guess my main point is that the push on the flop looks like what it is, a draw. So FE isnt that high. Given that my equity in the pot is about even, is pushing correct?

[Lloyd]

Because you have NO folding equity on the turn, a push on the flop is the only correct play.

[A_PLUS]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd prefer to isolate the MP player and get rid of the BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really disagree with this. I think that hitting an Ace or King is unlikely to win me the hand, that being true, both of my draws are to the nuts, so I should welcome more players. That is unless you think I would have some folding equity against MP on the turn

[blockafor]

IMO, your call would look like a pair plus a good diamond or a made nut flush (not as likely). And if I'm the villain with 2-pair or better and the turn is a non-diamond, I'm pushing.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
I think maybe the call-push turn may have the most FE against a made hand (non flush)

[/ QUOTE ]

You can't push turn if he's acting before you and he's an aggressive player. Calling the flop might look weak (which it is), and cause him to put you all-in on the the turn (no-diamond), which you'll hate. I don't think you can get away from this hand (that is, calling the flop) with these stacks and dynamics. Best option is reraising all-in.

[A_PLUS]

I think it is an oversimplification to say that I have NO folding equity on the turn.

We are early in the tournament. Villan has a very good stack even after the flop bet. So, to say that TPGK, will never bet a flop with 3 to a suit, and the check-fold the turn is just not true. How do I know its not true? B/c I made a similar play with an overpair two weeks ago.

Also, assuming i am a slight favorite / dog on this hand. This is not a tremendous +EV move. I gain about 150 chips on the play. So the folding equity on the turn doesnt really have to be that high to make this play worth consideration.


**BTW, I pushed and won, just trying to see alternative plays.

[Lloyd]

Ok, based on how he has played this hand and how you have described him, you SHOULD have NO folding equity on the turn.

[Jason Strasser]

[ QUOTE ]
Doesnt a push from another large stack look like a draw? Wouldnt a smooth call look more like a made hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. But, the alternative most of the time is to call and then either turn a hand that might end your action or brick and face a bet with less folding equity and 1/2 the chance you had on the flop of making a hand.

-Jason