2knl on party, bluff it up - Page 2

BobboFitos · #11 09-20-2005, 10:43 PM

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I don't think he can call with QJ in this hand, in order of likelihood he will have JJ and then 55 or QQ (I think its a LOT less likely he limped with QQ than JJ). Of course I'm drawing dead against those.

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I dont think he "can," either, rick. it doesnt mean he will fold though.

Im saying if the plan doesnt work (as it should) you're not drawing that dead vs his most likely hand.

anyway, nh here, I dont have anything to add others havent, hoped it worked out for you.

captZEEbo1 · #12 09-21-2005, 10:59 AM

I don't like it, he's not folding QJ, He can probably fold a loan jack, MAYBE a loan Q.

flawless_victory · #13 09-21-2005, 11:00 AM

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I don't like it, he's not folding QJ, He can probably fold a loan jack, MAYBE a loan Q.

[/ QUOTE ]never played in that game?

Yeti · #14 09-21-2005, 11:05 AM

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He can probably fold a loan jack, MAYBE a loan Q.

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I disagree. If he's gone to the trouble of renting these hands he's likely gonna push with them as well.

outdrwn · #15 09-21-2005, 05:36 PM

I guess I was missing something :-P. I play high stakes, but not 2k, so I guess villain would be sweating a lot facing that all in with only a queen. Nice semi-bluff, but I still don't like playing K10s(shorthanded?)especially with 2000 at stake! How are players playing JQ if they put down 2000? seems kinda fishy. But then again, I don't play for 2k

mgsimpleton · #16 09-21-2005, 05:38 PM

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am I missing something?

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yes.

Yeti · #17 09-21-2005, 05:38 PM

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..am I missing something?

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Yeah.

He has 4 ace outs.

And the 5 means it's highly unlikely Villain has 55. It was already unlikely he had QQ/JJ.

mgsimpleton · #18 09-21-2005, 05:40 PM

ok i'll be nicer. basically OP said the two most likely hands were QJ and 55. 55 is way less likely due to the other 5 hitting (now 1 combination possible instead of 6) so QJ is most likely hand now. and QJ just got counterfeit like whoa. if villan has any clue what hero is representing he might very well lay down his QJ. and if he doesn't, hero still has 11 outs.

Prevaricator · #19 09-21-2005, 06:23 PM

lets take a closer look at this:

It should be clear that if he folds QJ and his range is limited to QJ and 55, then the push is very good.

What if his standard play with JJ is to limp utg? Then is the push good vs his range assuming he folds QJ?

I think if he limps with both QQ and JJ then the push has to be bad, but I think its extremely unlikely he has QQ but only somewhat unlikely he can have JJ. Preflop if he limps utg with QJs, 55, and JJ each 100% of the time, never folding or raising to mix it up, and then plays those the same postflop on that board, is the push good? If it isnt, what is the % of time he is allowed to limp with JJ before the push becomes bad? (and if he can limp with JJ 100% of the time and the push is still good, how often can he limp with QQ?) Can anyone figure this out?

JMP300z · #20 09-21-2005, 06:34 PM

I think his hand range is a bit larger than just QJ and 55. Limping and calling a raise UTG and playing the flop and turn in such a manner is also possible w/ AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AQ. Im not saying these are the most likely but to say he only has one of those three hands for a EV calc is kinda dumb. Is this guy so tight that he will only call this turn raise w/ a set?? Thats a better question.
-JP