Hand from WSOP 2000 NLHE

[11t]

I'd figure him for queens or he is playing AA really aggressive. I doubt a player as tight as you described would be doing this with JJ and it is unlikely he has AK.

I suppose you have several lines, if you think he has AA now is the time to fold. All you can really do to re-raise is push IMO since min-betting is half of your stack.

If you don't push I think you can call (you are out of position right?) and check whatever flops and raise his continuation with a push. Just hope an A, K, or Q doesn't hit and scare him out of the hand or let him hit a set.

I'm not good enough to fold KK preflop and his bet doesn't look like it wants action and if you have been aggressive than he has even more reason to raise you with a wider range of hands. I'd probably just push OTP of his raise since it is less variance than c/ring the flop. If he has QQ he could come along for the ride too.

[JackOfSpeed]

There are very few times when I would even consider folding KK preflop.

Although this one might be worth a moment's consideration, it's still an easy push.

[Scooterdoo]

I think you have to push for several reasons. First, it's more likely that he has AK than AA. I think even QQ or JJ or more likely than AA. If you just call you are probably going to be risking more here than just pushing. Why? He could have a high pair and flops a set, but you don't realize this and will go to war with you KK if it's an overpair to the board. Also, he could have a pair like TT-QQ and if an A comes on the board a bet will scare you out of the pot.

Playing it safe in this situation as a few people suggested (call and then slow down to a scary board) to save your stack is really not safe at all. In these tournament you MUST accumulate chips. If you pass up this opportunity to perhaps double up or take a substantial increase in your chips without a confrontation will just lead to tougher decisions down the road where you will not be in as favorable situation to move up. Of course he could very well have AA, but if he does those are the brakes. If you have to get knocked out of a tournament doing so with KK versus AA is one way to lose where you really can have no regrets. Go for it!

[mikeyworm]

Appreciate the replys so far. So let's say I can, based on reads and previous action, lmit him to three possible hands, QQ-AA. If I do that, then is a fold in order. Can someone help me with the math?

-Jason

[ethan]

[ QUOTE ]
Appreciate the replys so far. So let's say I can, based on reads and previous action, lmit him to three possible hands, QQ-AA. If I do that, then is a fold in order. Can someone help me with the math?

-Jason

[/ QUOTE ]
The math?
[ QUOTE ]

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 49.9948 % [ 00.46 00.04 ] { KK }
Hand 2: 50.0052 % [ 00.46 00.04 ] { AA-QQ }


[/ QUOTE ]
So, here's some math for a preflop push in this case. You have 37K if you fold, 50K if you push and he folds, and 80K if you push, he calls and you win. He has 6 ways to make AA, 6 to make QQ, and one to make KK. If we assume he folds QQ and calls KK/AA you have 23% equity when called and will be called 7 times out of 13. Your expected stack is thus 0.23 * 80,000 * 7/13 + 50,000 * 6/13 = 10,000 + 23,000 = 33,000. If he calls with QQ as well then your average result will be your original stack, but you'll have given yourself some variance. If he calls with QQ 50% of the time and folds 50% then you expect to end up with 0.23 * 80,000 * 7/13 + 50,000 * 3/13 + 0.82 * 80,000 * 3/13 = 36.5K. Basically, the math says a preflop push is bad if he can only have AA-QQ.

Now, if he can have AK things look better. There are 8 ways to make AK, let's assume he'll fold all of them to a push and call half the time with QQ. You then expect to end up around 41.7K. If he folds AKo and calls AKs you expect to end at 41.9K.

How do you think the hand might play out postflop if you just called here?

[Mammux]

[ QUOTE ]
Appreciate the replys so far. So let's say I can, based on reads and previous action, lmit him to three possible hands, QQ-AA. If I do that, then is a fold in order?

[/ QUOTE ]
6 combinations of AA, 1 combination of KK and 6 of QQ. You're obviously 50/50 against that range. Since you already put some money in the pot, pushing is +EV if you know for certain that he will call with QQ.

-Magnus

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think this is as easy of a decision as it seems. Would love to hear some opinions. Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless you are talking about the fact that it is prolly a resteal (in his mind) i totally disagree with you. This thread is totally boring unless that is the perspective you are posting this from. If you really think he puts you on a blind steal, milk the hell out of it. Otherwise find a way for him to put all of your chips in the center of the table (which if he thinks you think he thinks you are, should be quite easy).

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
It is an EZ decision.
Just Push and if he has the rockets so be it.

This also keeps from making a tuff fold, if an Ace hits.


[/ QUOTE ]

terrible reasoning. lets take a look at the images here for a second. hero has been lag. villain has been extremely tight, and has shown a couple of big folds. this is the part in johnny's lesson where everyone thinks to them selves why would i show myself laying down kq out of the blind to a lag player??? the answer of course is that you want to put a resteal on him in the immediate future. i would like to see you smooth call his reraise, check behind on the flop, and call his push on the turn if no ace shows up.

my .02

[mikeyworm]

Well, I did what most people suggested. I gave it very little thought and pushed all my chips into the pot. He insta-called with rockets and I got no help. Looking back with 20/20 hindsight, I think that a push is only getting called by this player with a hand that has me beat or tied. I definitley think he lays down QQ and AK to a push. He had made it very clear that he didn't want to tangle with the bigger stacks but I got blurry eyed with my cowboys.

I am also curious if anyone knows if the villain did anything more in the tournament. He was a bigger 22 year old with a large goatee and a loud (but not in a bad way) personality. This was certainly the biggest pot of the tournament so far and he was without question the chip leader after he won. Thanks for the insight.

-Jason

[ppchips]

man that is cool