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#12
10-27-2005, 12:39 AM
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Re: a resteal question
Yep. I used to routinely muck any suited connectors below J9s until i start to play 30/60. Now im raise a bit these connectors. I prefer A2o to T9s. I like checking river (or checking turn and call river) and take the pot and hate betting with my flush draw just to be called with a-high.
As you probably remember from HUSH - i was probably the only hater of stealing with suited connectors (gappers etc...). As I can be easily probably wrong - my stealing effectivity in terms of bb/opportunity is sutisfying me totally. 
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#13
10-27-2005, 01:19 AM
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Re: a resteal question
Yes, I remember you're interesting preflop ideas from your HUSH days. Here, I reckon you're giving up a lot of value here by folding these suited connectors.
FWIW: I'm 0.28 BB/hand openraising on the button with T9s-T7s, 98s-96s, 87s-86s, 76s, 65s, & 54s over 343 hands (30/60 and upward). I'm 0.17 BB/hand openraising on the button with A7o-A2o over 429 hands. You tell me if that means anything, you're the stats guy [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
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#14
10-27-2005, 08:47 AM
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Re: a resteal question
[ QUOTE ]
Come on Rob, you oversimplify this thing drastically. First of all, there are people to act behind you. Second of all, you are allowed to just call with T9s, which I believe is the right play in the situation you describe. I would never 3 bet A4o or K9o because players who raise 50 percent of their hands play aggro postflop and see a lot of rivers, making it tough for me to know when I'm ahead(you will theoretically fold many hands that would have won if the hand were run hot and cold). -James [/ QUOTE ] So with position, oftentimes dead money (yes you may get capped out of the blinds), preumably a post-flop edge and positive equity you think he is oversimplifying?
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#18
10-29-2005, 12:32 AM
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Re: a resteal question
I'm struggling to wrap my head around how to think about stuff like this.
How does the fact that we're in position and will play better postflop relate to the hot-cold simulations you've run? I've never quite understood how effective a measure of hand strength hot-cold simulations are since postflop play and position complicate matters so greatly.
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#19
10-29-2005, 12:42 AM
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Re: a resteal question
[ QUOTE ]
I'm struggling to wrap my head around how to think about stuff like this. How does the fact that we're in position and will play better postflop relate to the hot-cold simulations you've run? I've never quite understood how effective a measure of hand strength hot-cold simulations are since postflop play and position complicate matters so greatly. [/ QUOTE ] the simulations state one thing: how your hand would do HU vs. the range of hands if all 5 cards were immediately dealt with no further betting. thats it. what the goal of nyplayer's question is relates to how to increase his earn playing his position as profitably as possible. gaining small edges against an opponent in a game of small edges is important. he's trying to maximize that. saying K9 is better than A4 is a step. despite A4's small edge, its (K9's) action in betting and action received with a better hand than your opponent's increases your expectation with this hand while 3betting in position. this analysis begs the question, what is to be gained from position? and how much lower can you go before going into the unprofitable range. at least thats what i think he's thinking Barron
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#20
10-29-2005, 12:55 AM
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domination
In villain's likely range, A4 dominates very few of his hands. Obviously A3 and A2, but those will usually split pots with A4 if they go to showdown and nobody pairs their kicker. A4 also dominates K4, Q4s, 54s, but that's stretching it for CO's range.
OTOH, K9 dominates Q9, J9, T9, 98, 97s (all likely hands in his range imho) as well as K8, K7s, K6s, other kings (also quite likely). In that respect, I like K9 more. Also A4 is dominated by A5 through AK (9 hands), while K9 is dominated by A9, AK, KQ, KJ, KT (5 hands). I ignore PPs here. So in terms of the threat of domination, K9 is significantly superior to A4. As far as T9s, I think this might be a time to cold call, because you are generally happy with the blinds coming (exception if SB has a hand like QT and will 1.5 SB but not 2.5 or BB has J9 and will call 1 SB but not 2). Plus, if you flop top pair, you're happy for the CO to bet into you. I don't think you should CC here all or even most of the time, but some of the time makes for an interesting change of pace.
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