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#11
11-02-2005, 01:18 PM
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Re: 2nd nuts how far do you go?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] raise preflop. your hand + position + likely hands of opponents (they both limped) warrants a raise to charge the blinds and win the button. on the flop, raise is standard due to free card + equity considerations. on the turn, people can easily overplay a strong hand like 7s6s or Js9s strongly on the flop. BB then would have a "concealed" hand going into the turn. he MAY have AsQs or a lower suited ace but you'll have to find out with some of the dead money in there (i.e. sb and MP1 are drawing dead if bb has the ace. and if he does have the ace high flush, you only lose your money, whereas you'd win all 3 of their bets.) id definately cap the turn. Barron [/ QUOTE ] Just curious, what are you doing preflop if you hadn't posted? And as for the actual hand, BB doesn't have AsQs cus I have the Qs, but he could have something like AsJs or something. And if I cap the turn I only get two bets, as the SB folded to my 2bet. Still though, I don't think any of this changes the situation enough, I personally also think that it is a good turn cap. [/ QUOTE ] if i hadn't posted id raise for the exact same considerations. turn AQss to AJss [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] ... same thing holds. Barron 
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#12
11-02-2005, 01:28 PM
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Re: 2nd nuts how far do you go?
[ QUOTE ]
If BB (a TAG) had the nut flush draw, I doubt he would have made his first raise on the flop since it is likely to shut out the field. So, yes, cap the turn. And I would raise PF too. [/ QUOTE ] why not? it's a draw-heavy board and he could very well have A2s. everybody's putting him on AJs or nothing just because he called a raise in the big blind multi-way. if he's got a crappy ace he could be thinking "if they fold i could have cleaned up an ace, if they don't i've got equity on my draw." A9s would be a clear case of win-winning it with a raise. the hero didn't even raise preflop, when he raises the turn i don't think that a 16/x player is going to be threebetting with a turd flush, trips, or whatever after that many people are involved for that many bets on a 2-tone flop.
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#13
11-02-2005, 01:34 PM
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Re: 2nd nuts how far do you go?
[ QUOTE ]
i would cap this turn absolutely never in this situation, it's not even close, and i can't begin to understand why anybody is considering it. since you're asking the question it probably means he had a worse hand, though. [/ QUOTE ] Um will you tell me why you would never cap in this spot please?
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#14
11-02-2005, 01:44 PM
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Re: 2nd nuts how far do you go?
um because i expect the bb to have the nuts a whopping majority of the time
i don't care what the results of this particular hand were
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#15
11-02-2005, 02:39 PM
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Re: 2nd nuts how far do you go?
I raise pre-flop. That there is already a spewer in the pot makes in that much easier.
[ QUOTE ] If BB (a TAG) had the nut flush draw, I doubt he would have made his first raise on the flop since it is likely to shut out the field. So, yes, cap the turn. And I would raise PF too. [/ QUOTE ] I'd raise from the BB with As9s here in a heartbeat. 1) SB could have (straight draw, lower 9, an 8) Plus if it does get down to me and the SB there's a pretty good chance I just got a free card (If I decide to take it - not sure yet). 2) I might just take the pot down right now 3) Flush draws are not folding, which is an additional reason to bet (Hero didn't). And I'd like the straight draws and KT's (or lower K's) to fold which they should when it's now 2 bets. So the hands I want to fold here do (Straight draws and many K's) and the hands I want to stay do (flush draws). Win - Win !! On the turn BB's 3-bet to me is the nuts. What kind of a player 3 bets here with a worse hand? Give him thinking like this: 1) He has to know someone hit a flush. He's already had a caller and a raiser on the turn. 2) He probably also knows MP1 is going to spew chips, so he has little to gain by not 3 betting the nuts. (The spewer will pay, they always do, and the raiser on the turn doesn't appear to be going anywhere.) Now add in the 'moron factor' and there is no way for Hero to fold. But I think he is winning this hand less that 25% of the time. 60% there will be a nut flush on the turn 15% no made flush but the River burns our Hero. (40% of no flush yet but 7 spades left and 11 board pairs = 18 scary cards IF Hero is currently good, which I doubt.) Easy call - IMO. (no cap) If Hero won this hand I can saftely say that BB did something very strange. (And I'm already fairly certain MP1 did)
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#16
11-02-2005, 03:12 PM
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Re: 2nd nuts how far do you go?
[ QUOTE ]
60% there will be a nut flush on the turn [/ QUOTE ] Do you have a basis for this assertion?
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#17
11-02-2005, 03:15 PM
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Re: 2nd nuts how far do you go?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] 60% there will be a nut flush on the turn [/ QUOTE ] Do you have a basis for this assertion? [/ QUOTE ] You mean EXACTLY 60%. No. But tell me what hands a rationale BB can 3 bet here? I'm giving him a 60% chance of being rationale. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]
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#18
11-02-2005, 03:17 PM
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Re: 2nd nuts how far do you go?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] 60% there will be a nut flush on the turn [/ QUOTE ] Do you have a basis for this assertion? [/ QUOTE ] You mean EXACTLY 60%. No. But tell me what hands a rationale BB can 3 bet here? I'm giving him a 60% chance of being rationale. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] 88, 99, any other made flush.
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#19
11-02-2005, 03:19 PM
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Re: 2nd nuts how far do you go?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] 60% there will be a nut flush on the turn [/ QUOTE ] Do you have a basis for this assertion? [/ QUOTE ] Really? You wouldn't assume someone else has a flush? If you are BB, what do you think Hero is raising with? (After there was already a caller on the turn) You mean EXACTLY 60%. No. But tell me what hands a rationale BB can 3 bet here? I'm giving him a 60% chance of being rationale. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] 88, 99, any other made flush. [/ QUOTE ] From BB's perspective. What do you think Hero is raising with on the turn? (If you are BB).
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#20
11-02-2005, 03:53 PM
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Re: 2nd nuts how far do you go?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] 60% there will be a nut flush on the turn [/ QUOTE ] Do you have a basis for this assertion? [/ QUOTE ] Really? You wouldn't assume someone else has a flush? If you are BB, what do you think Hero is raising with? (After there was already a caller on the turn) You mean EXACTLY 60%. No. But tell me what hands a rationale BB can 3 bet here? I'm giving him a 60% chance of being rationale. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] 88, 99, any other made flush. [/ QUOTE ] From BB's perspective. What do you think Hero is raising with on the turn? (If you are BB). [/ QUOTE ] 88, 99, K8, K9, a small flush. BB is almost as likely to have JsXs as AsXs, he was is the BB after all. This is where I think your 60% number falls apart.
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