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#12
05-11-2005, 02:52 PM
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Re: Easy Fold?
[ QUOTE ]
my whole point on the read was you can't really put him on a percentage of hands unless you have a read. If your read is 60% overs then you absolutely have to call. [/ QUOTE ] And my point was that because 88 was played so poorly, there basically are no reads based on the action. Let him take your 1K and outplay this inferior opponent later in the tournament (let him move in again when you know he is in bad shape). What is wrong with this? 
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#13
05-11-2005, 02:57 PM
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Re: Easy Fold?
you have no reads but you know he is an inferior opponent? Plus you neglected to comment on the part i quoted from your post. Why would you bring up the 60%? I just dont understand. You're contradicting yourself.
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#14
05-11-2005, 03:13 PM
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Re: Easy Fold?
Alright. I didn't play this hand. I watched it. I know the player who played 88 is a better player than the villian. 88 was misplayed and based on the action there was no reads. So you put villian on a random hand, right? Fine. 88 is a favorite, right? Fine. Get it in there. Celeb Poker on Bravo is a big hit.
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#15
05-11-2005, 04:03 PM
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Re: Easy Fold?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Sure, he'll show me an over pair 50-60% of the time, but my 6 outs and the pot odds make this a big longterm winner. [/ QUOTE ] Hmmm...what exactly are your pot odds? [/ QUOTE ] you need help figuring out pot odds too? BTW: really funny to hear your "celeb poker on bravo" comment directed at mts. I'm thinking you might be the one that should watch that show for help with your game. Always amusing when players talk about how much they have "invested" in a pot. CSC
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#16
05-11-2005, 04:24 PM
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Re: Easy Fold?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Sure, he'll show me an over pair 50-60% of the time, but my 6 outs and the pot odds make this a big longterm winner. [/ QUOTE ] Hmmm...what exactly are your pot odds? [/ QUOTE ] you need help figuring out pot odds too? [/ QUOTE ] I don't think he needs help figuring out pot odds. I think he's asking if you'll elaborate on why you think the pot is laying you the right odds.
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#17
05-11-2005, 04:50 PM
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Re: Easy Fold?
You aren't getting a very attractive price. About 1.25. That means that you need 45% equity. If he has overcards, you have 75% equity. If he has an overpair, you have 25% equity.
Since the respective equities are roughly the same, you simple need to consider how often he would make this move with overcards v. overpair. The gross overbet is usually major overcards or a big draw or a vulnerable 'made' hand (like 99-JJ). If we give him a range that is AK,AQ, 99,TT,JJ,77, then he is behind (16+16+6 = 38) 38 times, and he is ahead 18 times. Even if we throw AA-QQ in there, it's still 36 (a real coin flip). Some may argue that AK or AQ woudn't be played that way, but that can be countered with the fact that some wouldn't play AA-QQ that way either. My best guess is that you are ahead here a little more than half the time, and are getting a little price on your call. It's marginal, but I think a call is probably in order given the fact that you have stated that he's at least somewhat capable of making this play with AQ. Against certain opponents, I wouldn't put another dime in the pot.
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#18
05-11-2005, 04:51 PM
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Re: Easy Fold?
[ QUOTE ]
BTW: really funny to hear your "celeb poker on bravo" comment directed at mts. I'm thinking you might be the one that should watch that show for help with your game. Always amusing when players talk about how much they have "invested" in a pot. [/ QUOTE ] Heyooooooooooooooo!!! Nice. Anyway, I didn't have anything "invested" in the pot. I watched a player call 1K, then check, then face a 10K bet. Whatever! Call, fold, whatever; that's why I have my day job, right? Welp, time to go home! This kept me going today, so see ya later.
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