An interesting sitituation .....

[einbert]

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why the hell would there be only 3 5's and 3 10's? are we playing party where the deck is rigged?

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I already counted the 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and the T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] once.


Furthermore, this call is not only immediately profitable but some calculations can show us that it is even more profitable since we can knowingly push our edge on the turn. This hand in all is a cool example of how extremely awesome it would be to actually see our opponent's hand and be able to make all our decisions based on that. After calling the flop, we will always charge him a BB to draw out on us the turn when he doesn't hit the turn, and we will never pay off when he does connect with the deck.

Given that we have 29.09% equity, we can evaluate the immediate flop call's EV as follows:
FlopCallEV = (-1 SB) + (.2909 * 6 SB)
FlopCallEV = +0.745 SB
FlopCallEV = +0.373 BB

So by folding we are giving up almost 2/5 of a BB in terms of immediate value.

However, we are giving up even more than that. Because of the ridiculous nature of our implied odds and lack of reverse implied odds, we have a positive expectation from the turn action. So folding here costs us even more than the 0.373 BB figure I just came up with.
We can calculate our EV for the rest of the hand, assuming that our opponent never makes a FTOP mistake and we don't either, it will be

(21/45)*(-0.5 BB) +
(45-21)/45 * (21/44) * (-0.5 BB - 1 BB) +
(45-21)/45 * (44-21)/44 * (+1.5 BB + 2.5 BB)

which comes out to
+0.48 BB

So folding here actually cost you a profit of almost a full small bet. If the small blind isn't totally dropped for the rake as I assumed in my calculations, it would be costing you even more.

So, yeah, folding really sucks.

[csuf_gambler]

my mistake. its been a loonnggg day and i just wrote an essay for my asian american studies class. my brain is not fuctioning properly. i am azz fugging tired. im going to pass out on the bed right now and have a nice nap.

[Justin A]

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but poker is more then math. sometimes you have to use common sense and judgment. easy fold, don't be stupid.

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This is some of the worst advice I've ever seen on these boards. Please quit now.

[jbrock]

Clearly it is a call.

I have been thinking about similar situations. Recently I was involved in a NL hand where I was a 40-60 dog, but we both got all in on the flop. Even if we had turned our cards face over like in this example the outcome on the flop would have been the same since we EACH had +EV to push and call the push.

The size of the pot is the critical factor and if it is sufficiently large, as it is in your example here, both players can have +EV to bet and call.

Interesting how you can be a substantial dog and still have +EV, eh?

[Kaeser]

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actually now that i think about it, i gave hero too much credit. even if hero catches one of his "out's", he still doesn't have the hand won. if hero hits, villian still has a monster chance of beating him. hero is really only drawing to 2 clean outs(the 2 non heart aces) and even if he does hit, he still has to dodge 17 cards. this is not a good situation for hero.

now its a even easier fold, like it wasn't easy enough in the first place.

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Hero isn't drawing... he has the best hand right now.

[Evan]

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but poker is more then math. sometimes you have to use common sense and judgment. easy fold, don't be stupid.

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This is some of the worst advice I've ever seen on these boards. Please quit now.

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I agree. How can you say this when you know what your opponent holds? You should be calling in this sport even if the math says it's slightly -EV because you have no reverse implied odds as you'll be able to play perfectly from now on.

[jba]

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Hero isn't drawing... he has the best hand right now.

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if we have 30% chance of winning we clearly don't have the best hand now.

[jason_t]

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Hero isn't drawing... he has the best hand right now.

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if we have 30% chance of winning we clearly don't have the best hand now.

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Don't be a nit; the meaning of the statement is clear.

[GuyOnTilt]

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i fold. this ain't worth the money to fool around with. it's a tiny azz pot. there's a difference between having the best hand and having the best chance to win a hand. villian has a full 23 outs, thats half the fuking deck. hero has to dodge 23. villian has 2 chances to catch one of 23 cards.

yes based on a purley mathmathically point of view, hero should call. his odds are 1.05 to 1 and he is getting 5.1 to 1 on his money. but poker is more then math. sometimes you have to use common sense and judgment. easy fold, don't be stupid.

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You're so blatantly wrong I feel like you're probably just joking. But yeah, obv this is a clear call. Even if your pots odds were slightly lacking, you still will be able to make money on the turn 24/45 times, so you have implied odds with no reverse implied. (.05 * 22 + .32'ish * 2)/24 = ~.07 BB's worth of implied odds or so. That'll happen 24/45 times so a weighted average of 0.037'ish BB's. So yeah, even if you immediate odds are such that calling nets you -0.07 SB's, you should still call (answer to first calc should be slightly over 0.07 I'm pretty sure).

GoT

[James282]

Anyone who says fold before the river is totally insane. Do people realize that you only have to pay 1.5 bb to see the river, and you can fold if he improves? This is not interesting, there is no gray area. Call, and fold if the other guy improves.
-James