NL 10/20 Bellagio Hand, continue with open-ended straight draw?

[Matt Flynn]

usually i'd fold.

yes some semblence of implied odds are there, plus occasionally you should be able to make a high-prob steal on the river, but it's generally not worth it unless you've got a deep-stacked opponent you know will pay you off.

matt

[TheGrifter]

Turnip - No I don't think he's going to chop, just noting that it is a possibility.
I could easily put the guy in the middle on a flush draw if he expects an overcall or has a fd+.

Obviously the fact that the hero is acting last helps his implied odds here but to what extent depends heavily on the players. With 3 players in to the river anything that falls can be a scare card and I wouldn't put it past these players to heavily consider the OESD as well as the flush draw.

[Robk]

I think this is a clear call. For 6 outs you need 6 and 2/3 to one, in other words 1400 on the river, with the pot starting at 2400. Averaging this against two opponents on a rainbow board with a deceptive straight is a cinch. Averaging. I'd be surprised if you ever got less than 1400. A heart came, neither opponent had hearts, and 4000 went in on the river! Not to mention the times you catch a heart and it's checked to you, which is gravy. And I don't see what's so hard about a river decision if a heart comes, as your opponents should be worried that you have hearts if they don't. You can err way on the side of caution with the non-nut and this is still a very profitable call.

[theBruiser500]

How about moving all in on the turn?

[PokerFink]

Moving in with 8 outs after the turn will lose you an awful lot of money in the long run. Thats why.

[gomberg]

Good post - I messed up my math above, so ignore it [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]