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#1
11-05-2004, 03:40 PM
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Re: Fold AA preflop
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] It's never, ever correct to fold Aces preflop in a SNG no matter what conditions you can imagine (assuming traditional pay-outs). I promise. Irieguy [/ QUOTE ] 4 people left you have 100 in chips. Big stack has 5K the other two have 2450 each. All of them move in and it comes to you. you still want to play your AA? [/ QUOTE ] If I can editorialize on Irieguy's comment (and correct me if I'm wrong Irieguy), I think what he means is that playing AA at least to the flop is never ever -chipEV. It's entirely possible, though unlikely, that folding AA is a +$EV move, as in the situation you describe. 
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#2
11-04-2004, 03:21 AM
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Re: Fold AA preflop
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Does anyone believe that playing AA in this spot would be a good idea? [/ QUOTE ] If you goal is $EV maximization, then yes. If you want to lose money/lower $EV over the long-run on this hand, then no. If this thread is a joke, then I bit. If there was some ridiculous situaiton where (for example) the payout was top 2 place only (say 60/40), BB had 8,000 chips, you had 1,998 chips, the other two players had 1 chip each and BB would call with any two....then it's a clear fold $EV wise... ...but I haven't yet encountered a situation in a 50/30/20 payout SNG yet where it was correct $EV wise to fold AA preflop.
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#4
11-04-2004, 05:28 AM
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Re: Fold AA preflop
[ QUOTE ]
The total EV of sitting out is $67.2. [/ QUOTE ] You're way, way, way, way overestimating your EV of sitting out. You're basically assuming you'll finish 2nd at worst... ...but by your strategy, you will fold every hand UTG, or every hand the big stack enters first (which any big stack in their right mind will do almost every hand to exploit this bubble situation) - and he's to your immediate right, so he's either in the BB or acting before you on every hand. You will often get chipped down significantly before getting in the money (meaning very few 1sts, a lot of 3rds (short stacks do make comebacks quite often), and you will finish 4th a percentage of the time playing this way as well)... ...and AA wins 85% of the time against a random hand... It sounds like you're trying very hard to tweak your assumptions in favor of your desired conclusion. You can get away with that fine in the classroom, but when it comes to playing thousands of SNGs, those incorrect assumptions leading to -EV plays like this will come back to bite you in the arse for mucho $$... ...maybe there's a reason everyone is saying play AA here...
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#5
11-04-2004, 03:22 AM
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Re: Fold AA preflop
If you dont play AA 4-handed then what DO you play?
Or Do you just close your eyes and hope that the others somehow manage to bust each other up. Come on man, are we really discussing folding AA? Lets talk about mucking KK preflop at least there we might have a very good argument.
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#7
11-04-2004, 03:37 AM
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Re: Fold AA preflop
In limit games where you cannot always stop multiple people from having the pot odds to stay all the way to the end trying to draw out their straights and flushes or hitting runner runner sets or two pair -- AA wins 80 percent of the time. If you're afraid of that, then what other kind of crazy decisions are you making in the name of better safe than sorry.
(I did have KK once against two AA hands and a K came on the flop -- that was sweet!)
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#8
11-04-2004, 03:58 AM
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Re: Fold AA preflop
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I folded AA preflop in a cash game once. Stick to your guns! -SmileyEH [/ QUOTE ] this is just scared poker IMO. my friend did this once in a limit game, of course it was his first time playing in an B&M, and of course he was a total newbbie, what was your excuse.
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#9
11-05-2004, 12:04 AM
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Re: Fold AA preflop
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I folded AA preflop in a cash game once. Stick to your guns! [/ QUOTE ] Just out of curiosity when did you fold'em in a cash game?
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#10
11-05-2004, 12:11 AM
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Re: Fold AA preflop
I saw worse:
In a cash game I saw someone fold JJJJ (on the board) with an Ace kicker. It was his first time playing, He had A2 (or said so) and said he didn't know that you didn't go to the second hole card in case of a tie (even though it would mean playing 6 cards). you had to feel sorry for him, folding the nuts (though it would have been a 3-way split pot)
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