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Old 01-08-2005, 08:41 PM
Big Limpin' Big Limpin' is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 298
Default Ultra high buy-in SnG...beatable?

Just a random thought...if there were SnGs offered at, say, 2000+100, or 5000+250, or whatever...and in the future, there may be...

Would the best player in the world be able to beat the vig?

1) if only the 10 best players in the world were playing
2) if there is one or two sub-par players ponying up

I think you see where im going with this, but if not:

Say a very very good player can attain:

40% ROI @ 10+1
35% ROI @ 20+2
30% ROI @ 30+3
25% ROI @ 50+4
20% ROI @ 100+8
15% ROI @ 200+15
(or whatever, fabricated #'s)

Well, his return for all these is AFTER the vig. i.e. 30% ROI is more like 40% ROI from the actual poker being played (math error acknowledged, and ignored).

What im asking is, do you think there could be games where the best player couldnt beat the vigorish? Long term I mean. He would still be "winning", but his ROI may be below zero.

I think its reasonable to assume that you wont get too many whales in a $5000 tourney that lasts for only an hour. SO, probably, the worst player at theese imaginary stakes would still be ranked as an "A-" player.

This kind of assumes the sites wont put a rake cap in. If the normal limit games now are 10%, and the highest limits closer to 8%, it seems reasonable that, if offered, these games would still have a 5% vig or more.

Assorted questions:

-What do you think will be the highest buy-in next year? in 2 years? etc.

-Will there be any whales playing these games?

-Could the worlds best SNG player beat the vig versus 9 other pros? 8 pros, 1 fish?
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