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#11
03-23-2005, 02:24 PM
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Re: Here fishy fishy
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] So if I push preflop, is my goal for him to drop? I figuired i wanted a showdown with my hand 2 player, am I wrong? [/ QUOTE ] A7o is only 60% to win against a random hand. It is better than average (obviously) but not a hand you want to see a showdown with. If you thought you could take the 200 chips uncontested, definately do it. BTW, I'm all-in on the flop here too. [/ QUOTE ] took the words right out of my mouth, youre hand is very unlikely to win unimproved so you would much rather take it down now. Besides maybe playing too many hands early not playing aggressive enough on the bubble is the biggest mistake beginners make. 
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#12
03-23-2005, 03:15 PM
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Re: Here fishy fishy
I'll look at is from his side:
You didn't raise pre-flop, so it's unlikelly you have AA, KK or AK. So at worst he knows he is up against trips, possible an underpair, possibly an Ax - 1 pair. He has 9 outs against any logical hand you have. 9 outs x 2 cards = ~ 36%. It's not a great odds play - but look at it this way, if he loses, he is still the chip leader with a short stack - so he is almost guaranteed 2nd no matter what, with still a fairly average shot at first. If he wins, first is his 90% of the time. From a chip standpoint this play is slightly negative, but from a $ standpoint I think this is a highly positive EV.
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#13
03-23-2005, 04:25 PM
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Re: Here fishy fishy
[ QUOTE ]
From a chip standpoint this play is slightly negative, but from a $ standpoint I think this is a highly positive EV. [/ QUOTE ] What? In fish terms bad play me or good play me? Considering I am short stacked is this a good play?
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#14
03-23-2005, 04:44 PM
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Re: Here fishy fishy
Essentially what you're hearing from the forum, and is the concensus by the way, that pushing this hand preflop is the best decision here.
Reasons: 1. You might win the blinds (and his completed bet) right here, without seeing the flop or a showdown. Winning the blinds without a showdown is generally most desirable, and has the least amount of risk of ruin (0%). 2. Your hand runs well "hot and cold" (allin to a showdown preflop) against any two cards. More specifically, against any random hand, you're likely a 60% favorite to win the hand anyway. So to sum up, you have a relatively strong preflop hand (#36 out of 169 total hand combinations). It might lose significant value once the flop has been seen. Therefore, force opponent to pay to see the flop by pushing all your chips, in the middle. Play the 60% odds that you might win this hand. The poker gods blessed you with a top 21% hand strength here. Wield that power. Scuba
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#15
03-23-2005, 04:58 PM
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Re: Here fishy fishy
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] From a chip standpoint this play is slightly negative, but from a $ standpoint I think this is a highly positive EV. [/ QUOTE ] What? In fish terms bad play me or good play me? Considering I am short stacked is this a good play? [/ QUOTE ] your bad play. What if he had a King here too? Push this pre-flop if you are going to play it.
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