Betting small pairs for value: when do you slow down?

[Guruman]

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Check-folding the river is horrible.

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what hands is a calling stations betting here that you beat?

[lautzutao]

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I think I'd rather check/call the river here than bet and have to fold to a raise.

KO

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Give OP's read, I don't think we have to worry about being raised, unless he hit a FH on the river[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I like betting here. Against a true calling station I think we're better here more than ~16% of the time, and we're getting 5:1 on our bet. Like some of the other posters here, Ace high, bottom pair, or even Queen high are not out of the realm of possibility. And he's almost always gonna call, so we really don't need to worry about not collecting our final bet.

And all joking aside I think even a calling station would recognize that his K would be pretty far ahead if he had one and would raise with it on the turn.

So I think a river bet is solid.

Man the advice here is all over the map. I personally think the check-call the river line is OK, and this usually works against most 0.5/1 players, because they love to bluff.

If you induce a bluff from a 4 or T, our call has no EV if he is equally likely to bluff either, but our call reduces our +EV on this hand if he is more likely to bluff with a T (likely).

I'm starting to think the chance that he will check through makes checking more worthwhile. He probably has something and if he was just on a draw, might bluff at the pot. If he does have at least a pair, we are behind 5/3 of the time, not counting all the PPs higher than our 5s.

[@bsolute_luck]

the advice is expected to be all over the place with this hand really. he could have a T or a 4 or a pocket pair or Ace-high or just curious. that is why the river could be check/call, bet out, or check/fold. there is no definitive best line.

[TripleH68]

I am away from my pt database right now, but was filtering through pocket pairs last night.

I am losing with 22-66. In reviewing hundreds of hands my losses come from two places. Hitting a set and losing the hand to str8 or flush or overset. It happens. But more telling - it also comes from flops containing a pair, just like this hand. Against more passive players hero takes charge of the hand and loses too often.

I am not sure what I am going to change, but maybe tonight or tomorrow I will post several examples - because something needs to change. Thanks.

[RiverDood]

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Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is SB with 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (4 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

Pretty much an autobet given my PF raise.

Turn: (3 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

Turn is scary for both of us, and it makes it less likely he called me with a weak K, so I bet again. If the turn had been another overcard to my 5s, I would've probably check-folded, since I only beat 4s and the pot is small. And of course I'm not giving free cards to flush draws here.

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Actually I'd see it the other way. This is a great place to check and get a free card. Given your interest in the hand already, he's got to factor into his mind that if you check the turn, you're looking for a chance to stick him with a C/R.

Given that prospect, he's unlikely to bet unless he's got a K. If he does bet the turn, you can get out of the hand.

I think by now you've got almost no folding equity. If he's got a middle PP or Tx, he'll call you down if you bet, but he won't bet out himself. And I think you're spinning your wheels worrying about his possible flush draw. His hand is essentially any two, and the chance that he's got two of the right suit is tiny.

Against a tight player who respects your bets, your line makes sense. But you've been astute enough to identify your opponent as a calling station. Wait for a different hand where you KNOW you're almost certainly ahead to get him to pay you off. This doesn't strike me as the right spot to jam a pot.

You'd like to see the showdown cheap at this point. Maybe you're ahead, maybe you're not, but unless a 3rd 5 comes, you're not learning anything from subsequent cards. He's got more information than you do (he knows if he paired or not) -- so given that you're both stumbling around in this hand, why not take a free card when you can?

[Disconnected]

I think the board pairing on the turn is good for you since it makes it less likely villain was calling you down with a king, so I wouldn't be ready to slow down, and would bet/fold the turn.

On the river, I'd check, even against a calling station. There's just not that much out there I'm confident he'll call with that I beat. However, even the more passive 6 max players I've seen will take shots at you with an ace if checked to somewhat regularly. I'd figure that I'm far more likely to beat a hand he'll bet here than one he'll call. If he's very passive, of if I've noted that he's checked behind with some strong hands, I might swing from check/call to check/fold.

[MATT111]

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Check-folding the river is horrible.

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what hands is a calling stations betting here that you beat?

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In my experience even very passive ones will bet busted draws here. So the answer to your question is:
any two [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], QJ, sometimes A-hi, Qx, Jx.