$33 AK... Missed Flop

[mosdef]

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With only 715 chips at the start of the hand you should just shove that preflop.

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I disagree. There's hardly ever a reason to open push with >10BB.

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You don't have enough chips to make a continuation bet after the flop when you hit.

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Yes you do (see villain's action), and so what if you didn't?

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Hi Pineapple. Thanks for the comments.

I continue to disagree and here's why. In this particular situation a raise of, say 125-150 (fairly standard preflop raise amount) will take you down to around 575 chips. At that point you have got a stack JUST big enough to maintain fold equity if you let this hand go. So if you choose to c-bet a standard amount on flop (another 150-175) you are down to 400-425 chips. This is a small enough amount that it seriously reduces your fold equity in level 4 (as compared to around 575). That's why I don't like playing this hand with the intention of c-betting. Your stack after the c-bet isn't enough to continue beyond the current hand, so you effectively are playing for your whole stack at that point anyway.

715 just isn't enough IMO to dick around in level 3 because you risk getting crippled. The only way I support the 150 raise is if:

1. There are limpers who may call your raise. Then you are actually playing for TPTK value if you get 2+ callers, and you can abandon the hand with 575 chips left if you face resistance; OR

2. The guys left behind you have been observed to be tight and you can reasonably infer that they will fold to a small raise as often as a push; OR

3. You are comfortable checking behind on the flop if the caller checks to you because you believe you can get him to bluff away a chunk of his stack on the turn or the river. I often make the 125 preflop raise with this in mind, as opposed to a c-bet.

[bigt439]

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With only 715 chips at the start of the hand you should just shove that preflop.

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I disagree. There's hardly ever a reason to open push with >10BB.

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You don't have enough chips to make a continuation bet after the flop when you hit.

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Yes you do (see villain's action), and so what if you didn't?

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Hi Pineapple. Thanks for the comments.

I continue to disagree and here's why. In this particular situation a raise of, say 125-150 (fairly standard preflop raise amount) will take you down to around 575 chips. At that point you have got a stack JUST big enough to maintain fold equity if you let this hand go. So if you choose to c-bet a standard amount on flop (another 150-175) you are down to 400-425 chips. This is a small enough amount that it seriously reduces your fold equity in level 4 (as compared to around 575). That's why I don't like playing this hand with the intention of c-betting. Your stack after the c-bet isn't enough to continue beyond the current hand, so you effectively are playing for your whole stack at that point anyway.

715 just isn't enough IMO to dick around in level 3 because you risk getting crippled. The only way I support the 150 raise is if:

1. There are limpers who may call your raise. Then you are actually playing for TPTK value if you get 2+ callers, and you can abandon the hand with 575 chips left if you face resistance; OR

2. The guys left behind you have been observed to be tight and you can reasonably infer that they will fold to a small raise as often as a push; OR

3. You are comfortable checking behind on the flop if the caller checks to you because you believe you can get him to bluff away a chunk of his stack on the turn or the river. I often make the 125 preflop raise with this in mind, as opposed to a c-bet.

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The top of your post is what I would've written as a response to pineapple. I like it.

But I disgaree either partially or entirely with the subsequent 3 points:

1) More limpers, more dead money. I think this make it waaaaay better to push than raise.

2) No one is really folding like 88+ to a raise or a push and you want a call from weak A's, so the only hands we're happy putting in less of our stack against are low pp's. I think we should be pushing to avoid the c-bet issue and to get more money in against weak A's (granted some of them call a raise that call a push... but...)

3. Usually the same people that will bluff off chips are the same that will call light with A's and K's. Maybe this is offset by minimizing losses against low pp's, etc.

What I'm saying is I like pushing in almost any scenario here.

[pineapple888]

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With only 715 chips at the start of the hand you should just shove that preflop.

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I disagree. There's hardly ever a reason to open push with >10BB.

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You don't have enough chips to make a continuation bet after the flop when you hit.

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Yes you do (see villain's action), and so what if you didn't?

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Hi Pineapple. Thanks for the comments.

I continue to disagree and here's why. In this particular situation a raise of, say 125-150 (fairly standard preflop raise amount) will take you down to around 575 chips. At that point you have got a stack JUST big enough to maintain fold equity if you let this hand go. So if you choose to c-bet a standard amount on flop (another 150-175) you are down to 400-425 chips. This is a small enough amount that it seriously reduces your fold equity in level 4 (as compared to around 575). That's why I don't like playing this hand with the intention of c-betting. Your stack after the c-bet isn't enough to continue beyond the current hand, so you effectively are playing for your whole stack at that point anyway.

715 just isn't enough IMO to dick around in level 3 because you risk getting crippled. The only way I support the 150 raise is if:

1. There are limpers who may call your raise. Then you are actually playing for TPTK value if you get 2+ callers, and you can abandon the hand with 575 chips left if you face resistance; OR

2. The guys left behind you have been observed to be tight and you can reasonably infer that they will fold to a small raise as often as a push; OR

3. You are comfortable checking behind on the flop if the caller checks to you because you believe you can get him to bluff away a chunk of his stack on the turn or the river. I often make the 125 preflop raise with this in mind, as opposed to a c-bet.

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Hey, a polite 2+2'er! There's still hope for the world [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I can't say I agree or disagree with your analysis, cause I think it's looking way too deep.

Look at it from villain's point of view... I'm threatening most or all of their stack with a portion of mine.

*They don't know what I'm going to do* if they re-raise, because I'm not yet pot committed... even though *I* know I'm calling a push in this particular situation.

Plus, if they call... they don't know what I'm going to do on the flop... because *I* don't know what I'm going to do... because it all depends. I'm playing poker at that point.

In other words, I've put my opponents in a tough spot.

Now, what if I push pre-flop? Now they have the easiest decision in the world.

But if I put them to a tough decision now... and, ideally, have done or will do it two or three other times... now they start to hate me, and are more likely to make mistakes, which is what I want.

Since I think I have a skill advantage here over the vast majority of $33 players, that's how I'm playing it. So, like I said, I can't really disagree with your analysis, because I'm just approaching it from a totally different perspective.

[xJMPx]

I find it very difficult to make decisions when you have 10-13 BBs. Standard preflop raises followed by c-bets will cripple your stack when they don't work, while pushing is a lot of risk for little reward. All to often I get called by low pps and I'm suddenly out of the tournament without ever having a unhealty stack.

What I often do, which does not apply here because OP is on the button, is limp with AK from EP or MP a hope for a raise behind that I can push over the top of. This way, just taking down the pot without a showdown is worth the chips you pick up.

Also, even with one limper in front of me, I now feel the pot is worth taking down and will push.

[mosdef]

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1) More limpers, more dead money. I think this make it waaaaay better to push than raise.

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A push is okay too, but my point here was that raising to 150 would be tolerable (not necessarily optimal) if you have a lot of limpers - simply because there will be enough money in the pot to play for the A or K on the flop (i.e. totally avoiding the problem of c-betting on the flop).

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2) No one is really folding like 88+ to a raise or a push and you want a call from weak A's, so the only hands we're happy putting in less of our stack against are low pp's. I think we should be pushing to avoid the c-bet issue and to get more money in against weak A's (granted some of them call a raise that call a push... but...)

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Fine. I am only saying that if you if the guys after you will fold with all but the best of hands, then a small raise is okay (whether you have AK or not).

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3. Usually the same people that will bluff off chips are the same that will call light with A's and K's. Maybe this is offset by minimizing losses against low pp's, etc.

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Not necessarily. Lots of people like to get in preflop with crap and then bluff later. Therefore, playing to try to get them to bluff avoids the necessity of them having a weak ace to begin with. Also, in the situation where they have a weak ace if you show weakness bad players will pay you off roughly 100% of the time when you have AK.

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What I'm saying is I like pushing in almost any scenario here.

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I'm not saying that you would go far wrong doing this. I was only suggesting some scenarios where his raise to 150 would have been okay. I object to open raising 150 with the expectation of being called and gleefully making a c-bet with only 575 behind.