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#11
09-13-2005, 10:03 AM
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Re: Flopping a strong draw with KTs
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[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Show them your passive side. Check and call. [/ QUOTE ] Why? Doesn't make sense to me to check/call both the flop and turn... [/ QUOTE ] It's awfully rare that you're folding a better hand on this board if TAG is even remotely decent. You usually have 12 outs at best, though your full range is somewhere between 8 and 15 outs. I'd say your weighted average is around 11 outs, but your FE on this flop is almost nil. Rob [/ QUOTE ] You don't think we'll be able to fold hands like AK/AQ by following up on the turn? [/ QUOTE ] Only if the TAG is a bad player. 
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#12
09-13-2005, 10:11 AM
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Re: Flopping a strong draw with KTs
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[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Show them your passive side. Check and call. [/ QUOTE ] Why? Doesn't make sense to me to check/call both the flop and turn... [/ QUOTE ] It's awfully rare that you're folding a better hand on this board if TAG is even remotely decent. You usually have 12 outs at best, though your full range is somewhere between 8 and 15 outs. I'd say your weighted average is around 11 outs, but your FE on this flop is almost nil. Rob [/ QUOTE ] You don't think we'll be able to fold hands like AK/AQ by following up on the turn? [/ QUOTE ] Only if the TAG is a bad player. [/ QUOTE ] Crap, I would fold getting ~8:1, guess I need to work on my game then... [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]
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#14
09-13-2005, 10:22 AM
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Re: Flopping a strong draw with KTs
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Show them your passive side. Check and call. [/ QUOTE ] Why? Doesn't make sense to me to check/call both the flop and turn... [/ QUOTE ] It's awfully rare that you're folding a better hand on this board if TAG is even remotely decent. You usually have 12 outs at best, though your full range is somewhere between 8 and 15 outs. I'd say your weighted average is around 11 outs, but your FE on this flop is almost nil. Rob [/ QUOTE ] You don't think we'll be able to fold hands like AK/AQ by following up on the turn? [/ QUOTE ] Only if the TAG is a bad player. [/ QUOTE ] Crap, I would fold getting ~8:1, guess I need to work on my game then... [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Let's put yourself in MP3's shoes. What does a checkraise-bet look like? Most likely, a draw. Possibly a draw or 99. I doubt you'd play TT or JJ that way, but we can throw them in just for variety, but they don't make much of a difference. So you're up against 77, 99 or a drawing hand (KTc, KJc, QJc, AQc, AJc, ATc), depending on what you're holding (i.e. you can eliminate some holdings based on whether or not you are holding a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]). So, you get checkraised. Let's say that you know he'd play TT and JJ that way though it doesn't make much sense because those hands generally bet to "find out" where they are. So you've got 6 outs 12 ways, you're drawing dead 4.5 ways (including a discounted 77, and you've got the other hands drawing against you). Your weighed average of "outs" is significantly higher than the 5ish outs you need to be calling here. So if MP is a decent handreader at all (he doesn't even have to be decent, actually), you're putting yourself in a really shitty situation by checkraising here. You'll get popped on the turn by all overpairs and occasionally AK, and you'll get 3-bet by AcQc-type hands. So yeah. Show 'em your passive side. Check and then call.
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#15
09-13-2005, 10:24 AM
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Re: Flopping a strong draw with KTs
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check/raise if the button calls, check/call if the button folds. -SmileyEH [/ QUOTE ] You're overestimating how much value a checkraise has here when your pair outs are dominated and you're underestimating how often you'll get 3-bet and force a only slightly-too-loose Button out. Rob
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#16
09-13-2005, 10:53 AM
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Re: Flopping a strong draw with KTs
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[ QUOTE ] why did you provide a read of CO if he isn't in the hand? messed up converter? [/ QUOTE ] Same goes for MP2, both reads I provided to make clear raising preflop is good. [ QUOTE ] people probably would c/r here if button stays in, but it screams flush draw if/when we check the turn. i thought about betting out, but i just haven't come up with a plan/reason if it is an optimal line to consider. [/ QUOTE ] My thoughts: I check/raise this flop with the only exception if it's get checked through. With 2 overs and a flushdraw I have great equity 3-ways. Since pfr probably will autobet this flop a check/raise is correct even if it gets HU IMO. The raise will not lose me much when behind (because of my equity), but will sometimes buy me a large pot by the folding equity I gain on the turn. More comments appreciated. [/ QUOTE ] I think you are overestimating your equity. Against a 3-bet, I would think more often than not a K ends up costing you money.
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#17
09-13-2005, 12:08 PM
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Re: Flopping a strong draw with KTs
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] why did you provide a read of CO if he isn't in the hand? messed up converter? [/ QUOTE ] Same goes for MP2, both reads I provided to make clear raising preflop is good. [ QUOTE ] people probably would c/r here if button stays in, but it screams flush draw if/when we check the turn. i thought about betting out, but i just haven't come up with a plan/reason if it is an optimal line to consider. [/ QUOTE ] My thoughts: I check/raise this flop with the only exception if it's get checked through. With 2 overs and a flushdraw I have great equity 3-ways. Since pfr probably will autobet this flop a check/raise is correct even if it gets HU IMO. The raise will not lose me much when behind (because of my equity), but will sometimes buy me a large pot by the folding equity I gain on the turn. More comments appreciated. [/ QUOTE ] I think you are overestimating your equity. Against a 3-bet, I would think more often than not a K ends up costing you money. [/ QUOTE ] Against a 3-bet I agree, our equity isn't great. That wouldmost often mean we're up against AA/KK/QQ/JJ/TT. But these are only 24 combinations and against 15 of them we'll have 12 outs (our K outs is good ~50% of the times we get 3-betted).
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#18
09-13-2005, 12:18 PM
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Re: Flopping a strong draw with KTs
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] why did you provide a read of CO if he isn't in the hand? messed up converter? [/ QUOTE ] Same goes for MP2, both reads I provided to make clear raising preflop is good. [ QUOTE ] people probably would c/r here if button stays in, but it screams flush draw if/when we check the turn. i thought about betting out, but i just haven't come up with a plan/reason if it is an optimal line to consider. [/ QUOTE ] My thoughts: I check/raise this flop with the only exception if it's get checked through. With 2 overs and a flushdraw I have great equity 3-ways. Since pfr probably will autobet this flop a check/raise is correct even if it gets HU IMO. The raise will not lose me much when behind (because of my equity), but will sometimes buy me a large pot by the folding equity I gain on the turn. More comments appreciated. [/ QUOTE ] I think you are overestimating your equity. Against a 3-bet, I would think more often than not a K ends up costing you money. [/ QUOTE ] Against a 3-bet I agree, our equity isn't great. That wouldmost often mean we're up against AA/KK/QQ/JJ/TT. But these are only 24 combinations and against 15 of them we'll have 12 outs (our K outs is good ~50% of the times we get 3-betted). [/ QUOTE ] AK (12) - 12 outs. AA (6) - 9 outs. KK (6) - 9 outs. QQ (6) - 12 outs. JJ (6) - 12 outs. TT (6) - 12 outs. 99 (3) - 6.5 outs (weighted to account for the redraw against a turned flush). 10.83 weighted outs. Plenty of equity 3-ways but losing money when you c/r and are 3-bet, folding out Button. Rob
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#19
09-13-2005, 12:27 PM
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Re: Flopping a strong draw with KTs
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] why did you provide a read of CO if he isn't in the hand? messed up converter? [/ QUOTE ] Same goes for MP2, both reads I provided to make clear raising preflop is good. [ QUOTE ] people probably would c/r here if button stays in, but it screams flush draw if/when we check the turn. i thought about betting out, but i just haven't come up with a plan/reason if it is an optimal line to consider. [/ QUOTE ] My thoughts: I check/raise this flop with the only exception if it's get checked through. With 2 overs and a flushdraw I have great equity 3-ways. Since pfr probably will autobet this flop a check/raise is correct even if it gets HU IMO. The raise will not lose me much when behind (because of my equity), but will sometimes buy me a large pot by the folding equity I gain on the turn. More comments appreciated. [/ QUOTE ] I think you are overestimating your equity. Against a 3-bet, I would think more often than not a K ends up costing you money. [/ QUOTE ] Against a 3-bet I agree, our equity isn't great. That wouldmost often mean we're up against AA/KK/QQ/JJ/TT. But these are only 24 combinations and against 15 of them we'll have 12 outs (our K outs is good ~50% of the times we get 3-betted). [/ QUOTE ] AK (12) - 12 outs. AA (6) - 9 outs. KK (6) - 9 outs. QQ (6) - 12 outs. JJ (6) - 12 outs. TT (6) - 12 outs. 99 (3) - 6.5 outs (weighted to account for the redraw against a turned flush). 10.83 weighted outs. Plenty of equity 3-ways but losing money when you c/r and are 3-bet, folding out Button. Rob [/ QUOTE ] I can agree about adding AK/99, for variance and because they're pretty likely holdings. There are only 3 combinations of KK and TT, though...
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#20
09-13-2005, 12:30 PM
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Re: Flopping a strong draw with KTs
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] why did you provide a read of CO if he isn't in the hand? messed up converter? [/ QUOTE ] Same goes for MP2, both reads I provided to make clear raising preflop is good. [ QUOTE ] people probably would c/r here if button stays in, but it screams flush draw if/when we check the turn. i thought about betting out, but i just haven't come up with a plan/reason if it is an optimal line to consider. [/ QUOTE ] My thoughts: I check/raise this flop with the only exception if it's get checked through. With 2 overs and a flushdraw I have great equity 3-ways. Since pfr probably will autobet this flop a check/raise is correct even if it gets HU IMO. The raise will not lose me much when behind (because of my equity), but will sometimes buy me a large pot by the folding equity I gain on the turn. More comments appreciated. [/ QUOTE ] I think you are overestimating your equity. Against a 3-bet, I would think more often than not a K ends up costing you money. [/ QUOTE ] Against a 3-bet I agree, our equity isn't great. That wouldmost often mean we're up against AA/KK/QQ/JJ/TT. But these are only 24 combinations and against 15 of them we'll have 12 outs (our K outs is good ~50% of the times we get 3-betted). [/ QUOTE ] AK (12) - 12 outs. AA (6) - 9 outs. KK (6) - 9 outs. QQ (6) - 12 outs. JJ (6) - 12 outs. TT (6) - 12 outs. 99 (3) - 6.5 outs (weighted to account for the redraw against a turned flush). 10.83 weighted outs. Plenty of equity 3-ways but losing money when you c/r and are 3-bet, folding out Button. Rob [/ QUOTE ] I can agree about adding AK/99, for variance and because they're pretty likely holdings. There are only 3 combinations of KK and TT, though... [/ QUOTE ] That bumps your weighted total from 10.83 to 10.88 outs.
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