turn spot

[jetsonsdogcanfly]

i think what this thread needs is some math to make us all feel good about our instinct that this is very close. if he's behind, he may have 1-6 outs, with 5 or 6 being most likely. so by just calling we are giving him probably around 1.5 bets in free expectation (5/44*13). if we are behind and he caps, we still have at least 8 outs, so we are giving up at most 1.6 bets (8/44*2).

Pretty, pretty close. pretty close. i think the the 3bet is correct though because 1. he may not cap and 2. raising is more fun. 3. (maybe most importantly) all things being equal, in OOP situations it's probably good to play hands hard as much as possible, to at least make one's opponent feel a little less comfortable with using his position in the future. IMO, metagame means a lot here.

[mike l.]

"i think what this thread needs is some math to make us all feel good about our instinct that this is very close."

let me repeat what i said: he's not behind to many hands here. he's not behind to many hands that would play the flop that way. it's not very close at all.

[flawless_victory]

[ QUOTE ]
"i think what this thread needs is some math to make us all feel good about our instinct that this is very close."

let me repeat what i said: he's not behind to many hands here. he's not behind to many hands that would play the flop that way. it's not very close at all.

[/ QUOTE ]
i agree w/ mike... threebet fast.
the NFD draw makes this even easier... u have tone of outs vs 99, so no biggie.
if capped.. cryyyying call UI.

[ QUOTE ]
"i think what this thread needs is some math to make us all feel good about our instinct that this is very close."

let me repeat what i said: he's not behind to many hands here. he's not behind to many hands that would play the flop that way. it's not very close at all.

[/ QUOTE ]
To me this hand is more about logic than math. When a decent player to a expert caps a A97r flop out of position, his minimum here IMO is AK, and most of the time he will have one pair beat. If the villain is aware of this, he will not be raising this turn with a hand like AK. So On the flop BK has basically flipped his cards face up and told this guy he can beat one pair, if the villain is decent enough to understand this message, then BK should not 3 bet the turn IMO.

[mike l.]

"if the villain is decent enough to understand this message,"

he's not. that's why he's 35/17/2. he sorta gets the game but not really. punish him and 3 bet.

[ggbman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
"i think what this thread needs is some math to make us all feel good about our instinct that this is very close."

let me repeat what i said: he's not behind to many hands here. he's not behind to many hands that would play the flop that way. it's not very close at all.

[/ QUOTE ]
To me this hand is more about logic than math. When a decent player to a expert caps a A97r flop out of position, his minimum here IMO is AK, and most of the time he will have one pair beat. If the villain is aware of this, he will not be raising this turn with a hand like AK. So On the flop BK has basically flipped his cards face up and told this guy he can beat one pair, if the villain is decent enough to understand this message, then BK should not 3 bet the turn IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

You should all ready Westley's post, it's spot on IMO. For those of you who don't understand, i'm gonna break it down Mike L/ style for you.

Villian bets flop: "I have 2 cards that i raise with preflop"

BK c/r's: "I have a piece of this flop or 10-8"

Villian 3 bets: "I probably have a big ace or better, but JJ-KK is possible so i can check behind and induce a ricer bluff"

BK Caps: "I almost always have 2 pair or better, but sometimes i am playing T8s like a nut because i only made $13 million last month"

Turn:

BK Bets "Ok, i'm not scared of your flop cap. You fold maybe 2% of the time. I am value betting your ass!"

Villian raises: "But i still have you anally raped! HAHAHA!!!"

So, call the turn raise. If the river is a 7, bet call. If the river is an Ace, bet/3 bet, and if the river is a diamond, bet/3 bet. If anyone disagrees with any part of my analysis, i want to know where.

Gabe

[DcifrThs]

how do you play AK if you were him. your real worries are A9 and 99. id definately 3bet the turn and call if 4bet.

on the river if you boat up with the Aces over 7s id go for the bet/3bet. but if you boat up with the 7s over aces then id bet/call it. otherwise check call w/o improvement after you call turn 4bet

Barron

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how do you play AK if you were him. your real worries are A9 and 99. id definately 3bet the turn and call if 4bet.

on the river if you boat up with the Aces over 7s id go for the bet/3bet. but if you boat up with the 7s over aces then id bet/call it. otherwise check call w/o improvement after you call turn 4bet

Barron

[/ QUOTE ]
If I had AK in the villains spot I would just call down. If a non lag caps me on the flop out of position on an Axx board with no flush draw I am going to respect that and call the turn and call the river unimproved. I think raising AK on the turn in this spot would be over aggressive. From BK's point of view, if the villain was laggish, I would definitely 3 bet the turn, but if the villain is not over aggressive postflop then BK should just call down IMO. I will also mention that without the flush draw, calling down is clearly the right move IMO, but with the flush draw it is close, i prefer calling here.

[BradL]

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on the river if you boat up with the Aces over 7s id go for the bet/3bet. but if you boat up with the 7s over aces then id bet/call it. otherwise check call w/o improvement after you call turn 4bet

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a very good set of river lines. If you are 4bet and your flush comes you checkraise the river right? I dont think its likely that he raises again when you lead the third diamond, but i also dont think that he's 4betting many hands that check behind on the river.

-Brad

[PokerBob]

3bet and then c/r the river when you get there.