Why am I not winning anymore??

[Robk]

[ QUOTE ]
Two to three weeks of losing modestly are nothing to worry about. Mason wrote that you can expect to have MUCH longer losing streaks just because of random variations in your "luck."
In fact, some excellent players have had MUCH longer and more severe losing streaks.
Since it's early days, my primary advice is DON'T PANIC.


[/ QUOTE ]

This advice is grossly misinformed. The question is about low stakes NLHE. In my experience a solid winner at these limits should expect to lose about once every 7 to 10 days. Breaking even over 3 weeks is a clear indication that something is wrong.

[Robk]

[ QUOTE ]
If you are playing 800-1,000 hands per day, you're messing up your life. Sorry to be so blunt, but your life is grossly unbalanced, and unbalanced lives are unhealthy.


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm stunned. Playing online poker 4-5 hours a day is "messing up your life", no further questions asked? C'mon Al.

[Robk]

It's probably no coincidence that your break even streak coincided with the opening of the 6 max tables. The ring games have certainly gotten tighter. Some suggestions:

1. Try the 6 max tables. Play only one or two at a time.
2. Work hard on your game by reviewing your hands and thinking about the game. Read (reread) the relevant books.
3. Consider moving down in stakes, if only for a time.
4. If you find yourself making bad plays and calls take a break immediately.

Good luck.

[Lori]

If you are playing 800-1,000 hands per day, you're messing up your life

This is a truly ridiculous statement.

I've not argued with many things I've disagreed with you on because you are the expert and I'm not in this field, but this is something that is just so wrong I don't need to be an expert.

Honestly, if you think a few hours of poker hurts lives, why are you bothing to talk about the game at all?

Lori

[daryn]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In risposta di:</font><hr />
Breaking even over 3 weeks is a clear indication that something is wrong.


[/ QUOTE ]


do you really believe this?

[Lori]

do you really believe this?

The SD in NLHE is significantly lower than in LHE, I'd say that at 800-1k hands per day for three weeks, breaking even is a pretty dismal run in those games. They are exceptionally easy.

I might not go as far as 'clear indication' but 'getting worried' would certainly be true.

Lori

[Lori]

According to Statking I can break even in those games for 239 hours at worst.

21 days at 14 table hours would be an incredibly long run

Lori

[Robk]

[ QUOTE ]
do you really believe this?

[/ QUOTE ]

In limit poker someone with a decent edge breaking even over 21k hands is possible, but rare. In no limit it's next to impossible. The coefficient of variation is much lower. I'd post some math to back this up but I don't keep stats, maybe someone else can post theirs.

[Robk]

[ QUOTE ]
The SD in NLHE is significantly lower than in LHE,

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a bit unclear because there's no good way to relate the size of limit games to no-limit games. It makes more sense to say that the COV in NL will be lower.

[ QUOTE ]
I might not go as far as 'clear indication' but 'getting worried' would certainly be true.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've played about 250k hands of NLHE on party and I can't remember a single 5k breakeven streak, much less 21k.

[Lori]

This is a bit unclear because there's no good way to relate the size of limit games to no-limit games

The SD for two people with the same win rate, one in limit and one in no limit is less for the person in the NL game.

Lori