i was vilified for this call (Super Thurs - 11 left)

[fnurt]

[ QUOTE ]
Che,

This call is not good, and my reasoning comes down to the prize pool structure. cEV wise, this is borderline. I'm guessing if someone did the math it would yield that you were fairly close to 0cEV on this play.

But the way these multis work is that the good money is at the final table. I personally consider myself a good player, and I do not need to take risks like this late in mutlis. Sure, early on, go for it. I'm all for pushing tiny edges, etc... But not at this juncture. This spot is just too close and not worth it.

Too marginal for a good player like yourself,
-Jason

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with the reasoning but not the conclusion. Remember, he's not the one facing elimination. If he wins, he's at the final table and has money to work with. If he loses, he still has 2 other short stacks at the table he can outlast, plus whoever is at the other table. I'm guessing right now the average stack is 80 or 90k which means our hero still has a lot of work to do.

If the 5-handed situation had been profitable then I could see letting this one go. But with such a big stack at the table, I'm guessing it's something you want to get out of ASAP.

[betgo]

I strongly disagree. You want to gamble to make the big money of the top 3 places. You don't want to gamble recklessly, but this is a favorable gamble.

[Toro]

I'm pretty sure I know what happened here. You had the best hand preflop and ended up winning the pot. I personally would not make the call, but if you knew this guy well and factored that in, I guess you could make a case for it.

[berya]

I don't like this call. For me to call this I would have to be pretty sure SB can absolutely have any two. And I have to be pretty sure it will have an affect on the rest of the table. The table has to be tough. As in they will notice the call and possibly give up a round of blinds to me either now or in the upcoming orbits. But if they are morons NO WAY do I make this play without even getting 2:1. Make it 2.5:1 and I call everytime.

[Tosh]

What a surprise Che making more big tournament final tables! Dude you are too good, get off the internet and onto the WPT.

I want 2.5/1 to call here but then again I don't place every tournament I play. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[soxfan70]

I dont understand the call. Nearly half of your stack with a J6 and no chance of outplaying someone postflop simply doesnt make sense to me. I eagerly await your explanation.

[Pat Southern]

I wouldn't make the call, but that doesn't mean I don't like it. Getting about 2-1 on a call against a guy who is probably pushing any two cards is probably +EV chipwise. Although calling, and winning, allows you more freedom to make plays at the final table, it doesn't change your chip position at all, you said that everyone at the other table has over 50k, and this call would leave you at about 50k. Calling, and losing, on the other hand drops you down to 10th, and very close to last. In this type of tournament, squeezing out a decent final table place would be huge for most people, including me, and would prevent them from making this call. But since you have much deeper pockets from previous wins, I think you can forgoe a couple spots occassionally to give yourself a better shot at the top spots.

[cferejohn]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont understand the call. Nearly half of your stack with a J6 and no chance of outplaying someone postflop simply doesnt make sense to me. I eagerly await your explanation.

[/ QUOTE ]

The fact that it was half is stack doesn't seem very important. If mean, if the raise was only to 2x the BB, but that still represented 1/2 his stack, I think you'd agree its an automatic call...

[Chief911]

With no information about the SB, I think I'd have to fold here. It would be painful, but I'd fold.

All the odds aside, as most of us atleast know that you are getting odds to call, here's my main reasoning. You fold, and you are still 3rd stack at your table, and likely to get to the final table. Secondly, you'll have much better spots to push this than now. Finally, as has been pointed out, even though you have odds to call, its for 1/2 your stack. Sometimes I'm not willing to draw on a hand even given proper odds if I know it'll cripple me if I dont hit.

Dan Harrington said it best, its all about survival.

Nick

[Ulysses]

If you win, you have 52. If you lose, you have 22. If you fold, you have 33. Something like that. Weighing what I think my chances are of making various money from those positions is how I would make the decision to call or fold. The nice thing about online tourneys is you can know how the chips are distributed among all the players and make the decision taking that into account. Given the info presented, I would lean towards folding here.