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#11
11-08-2005, 03:15 PM
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Re: how easy is it to lose 40k in 50- 100 heads up?
[ QUOTE ]
Probability has no bearing here. Probability factors into each hand but not the outcome of several hundred. [/ QUOTE ] It might be hard to assess the probability, but that doesn't mean it doesn't apply. 
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#13
11-08-2005, 03:44 PM
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Re: how easy is it to lose 40k in 50- 100 heads up?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Probability has no bearing here. Probability factors into each hand but not the outcome of several hundred. [/ QUOTE ] It might be hard to assess the probability, but that doesn't mean it doesn't apply. [/ QUOTE ] Given the OP's question how can one assess probability?
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#14
11-08-2005, 03:50 PM
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Re: how easy is it to lose 40k in 50- 100 heads up?
$40k at 50-100 = 400 BBs
5-6 hours a day x "couple of weeks" e.g., 14 days = 70-84 hours HU hands/hour online = 300 hands played = 21000 - 25200 So your question asks, how possible is it to experience a -400BB downswing in 20-25k hands while playing heads up. This seems pretty hard to achieve based on variance alone, but with a skill disadvantage, it seems pretty likely. Of course Im not a HU player, let alone a high limit HU player.
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#16
11-08-2005, 04:03 PM
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Re: how easy is it to lose 40k in 50- 100 heads up?
You asked the probability of an event that has occured. That probability is 1, certainty, it happened.
Did you intend to ask the odds of such a thing happening again? If so, much more detail is needed. Did you intend to ask the odds that the game was honest? This is more or less unanswerable. These are very different questions.
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#18
11-08-2005, 04:06 PM
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Re: how easy is it to lose 40k in 50- 100 heads up?
[ QUOTE ]
This was the first thread I opened in 2+2 today. I'm off to a bad start. It only gets better from here. [/ QUOTE ] Ding...let it burn let it burn
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#19
11-08-2005, 04:38 PM
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Re: how easy is it to lose 40k in 50- 100 heads up?
[ QUOTE ]
30% [/ QUOTE ] Ain't far off. Let's assume that your std dev per hand is 3 bets, which means that in 2/3 or your hands you will win or lose 3 bets. This isn't unrealistic if you're playing with some of these real wild aggressive HU players who will raise/reraise pre-flop everytime, and post-flop often as well. Over 25K hands, this translates into a std deviation of over 400, which means there's about 1/3 of the time, playing break-even poker with that high a variance, you will lose 400 bets.
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#20
11-08-2005, 05:31 PM
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Re: how easy is it to lose 40k in 50- 100 heads up?
[ QUOTE ]
This was the first thread I opened in 2+2 today. I'm off to a bad start. It only gets better from here. [/ QUOTE ] Geez - get out of bed earlier. 2:38 in the afternoon is too late even for us degenerate poker players.
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