a semi-theoretical question

[elus2]

because he knows he'll be getting action from guys like you when you're holding AA/AK. even if he's holding a strong draw with equity of ~50% 2/3's of the time here but has you smashed the other 1/3 of the time you can muck top pair top kicker.

[vulturesrow]

In case anyone is interested, he is the equity breakdown from pokerstove:

Hand as posted:

990 games 0.005 secs 198,000 games/sec

Board: Kd Tc 6c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 61.6162 % 61.01% 00.61% { AcKh }
Hand 2: 38.3838 % 37.78% 00.61% { Kc5c }


---

When you dont have Ac:

990 games 0.005 secs 198,000 games/sec

Board: Kd Tc 6c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 55.4545 % 54.85% 00.61% { AsKh }
Hand 2: 44.5455 % 43.94% 00.61% { Kc5c }

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
In case anyone is interested, he is the equity breakdown from pokerstove:

Hand as posted:

990 games 0.005 secs 198,000 games/sec

Board: Kd Tc 6c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 61.6162 % 61.01% 00.61% { AcKh }
Hand 2: 38.3838 % 37.78% 00.61% { Kc5c }


---

When you dont have Ac:

990 games 0.005 secs 198,000 games/sec

Board: Kd Tc 6c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 55.4545 % 54.85% 00.61% { AsKh }
Hand 2: 44.5455 % 43.94% 00.61% { Kc5c }

[/ QUOTE ]



haha, that's not really the point though...of course i would like to have the Ac if i knew he had Kc5c. duh!! the point was that he is more likely to be semibluffing the nut flush draw if I don't have the Ac vs. if I do. If i have the Ac, now if i want to put him on a draw, i have to eliminate the most obvious one from my hand range (making sets/two pairs more prevelant).
My inquiry was the extent of the effect of those offsetting factors...

[vulturesrow]

[ QUOTE ]

haha, that's not really the point though...of course i would like to have the Ac if i knew he had Kc5c. duh!! the point was that he is more likely to be semibluffing the nut flush draw if I don't have the Ac vs. if I do. If i have the Ac, now if i want to put him on a draw, i have to eliminate the most obvious one from my hand range (making sets/two pairs more prevelant).
My inquiry was the extent of the effect of those offsetting factors...

[/ QUOTE ]
Yup I know. But since there were some questions about equity I figured Id run a couple. But it was getting late and I didnt feel like doing any of the other scenarios [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Maybe later if anyone is interested.

[amoeba]

this is interesting topic.

I wonder if the answer is different based on whether it came down

Kc Tc 6d

vs

Kd Tc 6c

[TheWorstPlayer]

More. Even if you don't have it, he's not pushing here with just the NFD. It would be a pair+FD or OESD+FD. His pair+FD hands are basically only AK which you aren't beating anyways. His OESD is QJs. If you didn't have the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] then he has 9 flush outs. When you have the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] he only has 8 flush outs and you have the nuts backdoor draw, so he needs three exactly, not four on the board. So I think you should be more likely to call with the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] since he is a)unlikely to call a raise with Axs and b)unlikely to push with just the NFD. And I don't think it's close. Not saying whether or not you should call, though, of course.

[xorbie]

Why isn't he pushing with the nut flush draw? Especially on this board where he could have a gutshot to go with it (AQ/AJ). Against JQ[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] you already have one of his outs, it's not like the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] double counts and, again, you only have 6 outs anyway if he does hit the flush on the turn, so again you really only gain 2-3% equity.

I think pair + flush draw is really the only case where having the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] has, so I do think it's close.

[TheWorstPlayer]

I didn't remember that he was suspected of being LAG. He could have NFD.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
More. Even if you don't have it, he's not pushing here with just the NFD. It would be a pair+FD or OESD+FD. His pair+FD hands are basically only AK which you aren't beating anyways. His OESD is QJs. If you didn't have the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] then he has 9 flush outs. When you have the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] he only has 8 flush outs and you have the nuts backdoor draw, so he needs three exactly, not four on the board. So I think you should be more likely to call with the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] since he is a)unlikely to call a raise with Axs and b)unlikely to push with just the NFD. And I don't think it's close. Not saying whether or not you should call, though, of course.

[/ QUOTE ]

this player would definitely call a raise preflop w/ Axs