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| View Poll Results: WR in SB (From position stats in PokerTracker at ONE limit w/ 1/2 blind structure) | |||
| .14 or greater |
   
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3 | 15.79% |
| .13 |
  
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1 | 5.26% |
| .1 |
  
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0 | 0% |
| .11 |
  
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3 | 15.79% |
| .12 |
  
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0 | 0% |
| 0-.5 |
  
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8 | 42.11% |
| .6 |
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0 | 0% |
| .7 |
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1 | 5.26% |
| .8 |
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1 | 5.26% |
| .9 |
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2 | 10.53% |
| Voters: 19. You may not vote on this poll | |||
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#11
09-11-2005, 01:35 PM
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Re: Level 3, over the top with TT?
I agree that AK/AQ is the most likely holding here, but you can't just rule out high PPs either based soley on the fact that he raised in EP.
I don't see you having any FE here, so it's really just a question of how much equity you need to have against his range for pushing to be a better option than folding. Unfortunately, if you read him as tight, I don't see how you can be ahead of his range here. For example, let's say he's raising TT+, AJ+, KQ here. Tens only have 46% equity against that range. Therefore, if you think his range is similar to this, you should fold. 
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#12
09-11-2005, 04:43 PM
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Re: Level 3, over the top with TT?
[ QUOTE ]
I agree that AK/AQ is the most likely holding here, but you can't just rule out high PPs either based soley on the fact that he raised in EP. I don't see you having any FE here, so it's really just a question of how much equity you need to have against his range for pushing to be a better option than folding. Unfortunately, if you read him as tight, I don't see how you can be ahead of his range here. For example, let's say he's raising TT+, AJ+, KQ here. Tens only have 46% equity against that range. Therefore, if you think his range is similar to this, you should fold. [/ QUOTE ] Well, it depends how often he'll get a better hand in one of the unacted players to enter too. If you assumed they'd always fold and just went with the numbers in your post then it is still clear he should fold: EV of push and call is: 1265 * .46 + 0 * .54 = 581 but overall $EV is $16.30 EV of fold is: 595 which by $EV is $18.04 But how do you think he'd play 77-99? Limp with such a short stack? Fold? I think his range should include some more of the low pairs you dominate.
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#13
09-11-2005, 05:26 PM
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Re: Level 3, over the top with TT?
Yeah, I assumed everyone else would fold. I was just trying to show that TT does not do well against a tight player's likely EP raising range. Factoring other potential callers in would tend to lower the EV of a push even further though, so that tends to make a fold even more correct.
Whether or not you include 77-99 in the range is debateable, but I don't see a tight player raising these from up front. Maybe 99, who knows. But even if you include those pairs (and assume that he calls your allin with them) TT would then have about 52% equity. Still not enough for a push to be correct, IMHO.
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#14
09-11-2005, 05:28 PM
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Re: Level 3, over the top with TT?
As a side note, I think this result is kind of surprising. I would definately have pushed in this position. The key factor I think is the read that villian is tight.
Good thread. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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#15
09-11-2005, 05:32 PM
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Re: Level 3, over the top with TT?
You have yourself one wicked ass avatar.
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#16
09-11-2005, 06:09 PM
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Re: Level 3, over the top with TT?
[ QUOTE ]
you have way too few chips to consider anything other than a push. [/ QUOTE ] This is the reason I push. Your hand isnt bad, there are a decent amount of chips in the pot, and your stack is relatively small. This could be a very good opportunity to add some much needed chips or even double up. I'd gamble here.
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#17
09-11-2005, 06:13 PM
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Re: Level 3, over the top with TT?
[ QUOTE ]
You get a knack for it after 3000 tournaments. Of course not always correct but quite often I am. [/ QUOTE ] I'm pretty sure he was being sarcastic. And I sort of agree with his sentiment. There is no reason that AK is any more likely here than JJ. Regardless, I think it's a close push here.
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#18
09-11-2005, 07:48 PM
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Re: Level 3, over the top with TT?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] You get a knack for it after 3000 tournaments. Of course not always correct but quite often I am. [/ QUOTE ] I'm pretty sure he was being sarcastic. And I sort of agree with his sentiment. There is no reason that AK is any more likely here than JJ. Regardless, I think it's a close push here. [/ QUOTE ] Sure there is. Count the number of ways he could be holding AK compared to JJ.
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#20
09-11-2005, 08:40 PM
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Re: Level 3, over the top with TT?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] You get a knack for it after 3000 tournaments. Of course not always correct but quite often I am. [/ QUOTE ] I'm pretty sure he was being sarcastic. And I sort of agree with his sentiment. There is no reason that AK is any more likely here than JJ. Regardless, I think it's a close push here. [/ QUOTE ] Sure there is. Count the number of ways he could be holding AK compared to JJ. [/ QUOTE ] Ok, what about JJ + QQ + KK + AA + 99? It's just stupid, in online poker, to "put someone" on such a narrow range of hands based on an UTG raise.
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