77 flop decision

[DpR]

I think this is an easy fold. You are probably behind and even if you are ahead now you are almost 100% dead if an A,Q or J comes on the turn.

Raising is your other option, but I would save it for when that Ten is a 8 or something.

[CanKid]

i'd peel a card
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and why?

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- laggy fish could have anything, you'll get to see what he does on the turn
- if sb's range of hands includes all the big aces that didn't pair the flop he may check the turn after 2 flop callers? (you know better than me)
- assuming sb bets again you'll get 9:1 or 10:1 if fish calls again on the turn if you hit an 8 or a 9 for a b/d draw with your set draw (6 outs)
- do that Tommy stuff on the turn

i hate folding this big pot on the flop then seeing the turn go check check and watching QJ or 55 or something stupid get shown down

[Ryno]

If the SB is good he might suspect Mike is light. So the SB's range is wider than that. The fishy one could have a lot of things, and probably doesn't have a K. There are a ton of hands he could have that make a gutshot/OESD with the K and T, that he would just call the flop with.

The SB's bet tells you nothing, it is an autobet.

This is basically a game of chicken that you hope to win. If SB 3-bets the flop you'd probably have to yield on the turn unimproved.

[lil feller]

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i did something i used to do too much but now dont do enough in these scenarios. i raised.

any good reasons to do that??

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What does the SB think of the LAG PFR? Is he capping light here? Will he fold QQ or JJ? How likely is he to 3 bet?

I think you can make a case for all 3 options here. You're getting like 15:1 on a call, and you're closing the action, and you have position the rest of the hand. Thats worth a lot. If, by some miracle the turn is a 7 you have to think your good most of the time and you're probably going to get a fair amount of action. Combine that with the possibility (albeit small) that you're currently in front and I think you need to see the turn card.

The real question is how likely it is the SB will 3 bet, and whether he'll do it with anything that doesn't beat you. If he 3bets you have to call, but it would suck to have to do that and still not know where you're at in the hand (I can't imagine calling a turn bet if you get 3 bet and miss?). If he's the type that will only call w/ a whiffed AQ, then I think raising is good. If he'd 3bet no pair to put pressure on the fish, then I like a peel, and see what happens on the turn.

thoughts?

lf

[mike l.]

"What does the SB think of the LAG PFR? Is he capping light here? Will he fold QQ or JJ? How likely is he to 3 bet?"

these are the sort of questions to ask. but if i had precise answers than it wouldnt be much of a pickle now would it?

"I think you need to see the turn card."

i agree.

"The real question is how likely it is the SB will 3 bet, and whether he'll do it with anything that doesn't beat you."

excellent. i agree.

"If he 3bets you have to call, but it would suck to have to do that and still not know where you're at in the hand"

well then we'd be talking about a different creature altogether. if sb 3 bet me id know where im at with great certainty and fold the turn unimproved (but call w/ gutshots and fold the river).

"If he's the type that will only call w/ a whiffed AQ, then I think raising is good. If he'd 3bet no pair to put pressure on the fish, then I like a peel, and see what happens on the turn."

good plan. he's the more sensible caller w/ AQ.

[SA125]

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i did something i used to do too much but now dont do enough in these scenarios. i raised.

any good reasons to do that??

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I think this is a clear raise or fold situation because calling won't tell you anything about the SB's hand. For you to continue and have any idea where he's at you had to raise.

If he 3 bets you fold. If he calls he'll check the turn and, respecting your play or not, call you down with QQ-JJ if rags come off. The best cards for you to bet would be a K, T or a 7. Otherwise I'd seriously consider taking a free card because he's not folding a better hand.

[SA125]

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If he 3 bets you fold.

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That's wrong. Forgot how many sb's were in the pot. You call the 3 bet and fold turn UI.

[Gamblor]

Is there any argument for calling the flop and raising/betting any brick turn card, folding otherwise?

[oreogod]

I never really stated my reasons for staying in the hand, but Lil did a pretty good job. If SB thinks mike plays okay and loose, he has probably loosened his capping range. And his flop bet is an auto bet.

Mike, if u raise and are called, whats your plan on the turn (I guess this is assuming a blank comes.)

[DpR]

Revisiting this thread, is SBs hand range really anything more than AK, AQ, AJs, KQs, and pairs down to 88? he did CAP preflop, he is semi taggish and he does think mike plays OK.

So we are ahead of what, 20/71 combos? So, 28% chance we are ahead on the flop. Further, 10 of 47 cards on the turn put those 20 combinations ahead of us. So 21% chance we fall behind on the turn.

Maybe you can fold out 88 and 99 (although this would probably require a turn bet).

So on the turn we are still ahead 28%*79% = 22% plus the times we were behind and hit our 7 to take the lead, (2/47)*(72%) = 3% for a total of 25%.

Of course all of this ignores the fact that there is another player in the hand and the fact that a set of 7s may still be behind. The former is certainly a significant ommision.

This analysis (assuming I didnt mess it up), certainly does not give us a clear answer. If it were heads up it seems pretty clear we should continue. If we added the 3rd player in I cannot imagine we are ahead after the turn card more than 10%. Then, if we get that far, may fall behind on the river. So we are ahead by the river maybe 8% of the time at best?

We have to put in minimum, 1 sb bet on flop, 79%*2sb on turn (we fold if one of the 10 outs hits), 62%*2sb on the river = 3.84 bet to win maybe 20. So about 6-1.

Obviously there is a lot of pieces missing here, the largest of which is that you can play in a fashion that you win without s.d.

That said I think it does frame a little bit how much we need to make up here.

The results we actually closer than I expected them to be, but I think folding is still the way to go here.